Alexander S. Wein

Anda Skeja, Daniel Gutiérrez Espinoza, Fiona Skerman et al.

We establish the first sharp thresholds for low-degree polynomial tests in planted-vs-planted settings, where the goal is to determine with vanishing error which of two structured planted mechanisms generated the observed data. We prove matching low-degree upper and lower bounds for counting communities in the planted submatrix and planted dense subgraph models. The resulting testing threshold coincides, down to the sharp constant, with the known low-degree recovery threshold. In contrast, the task of weak testing, where the goal is to outperform random guessing, does not have a sharp threshold but rather a smooth transition, which we identify. To prove our results, we develop a framework for planted-vs-planted testing that builds on a latent-variable expansion originating in low-degree recovery and employs new methods to identify and prune non-signal contributions.

Youngtak Sohn, Alexander S. Wein

High-dimensional planted problems, such as finding a hidden dense subgraph within a random graph, often exhibit a gap between statistical and computational feasibility. While recovering the hidden structure may be statistically possible, it is conjectured to be computationally intractable in certain parameter regimes. A powerful approach to understanding this hardness involves proving lower bounds on the efficacy of low-degree polynomial algorithms. We introduce new techniques for establishing such lower bounds, leading to novel results across diverse settings: planted submatrix, planted dense subgraph, the spiked Wigner model, and the stochastic block model. Notably, our results address the estimation task -- whereas most prior work is limited to hypothesis testing -- and capture sharp phase transitions such as the "BBP" transition in the spiked Wigner model (named for Baik, Ben Arous, and Péché) and the Kesten-Stigum threshold in the stochastic block model. Existing work on estimation either falls short of achieving these sharp thresholds or is limited to polynomials of very low (constant or logarithmic) degree. In contrast, our results rule out estimation with polynomials of degree $n^δ$ where $n$ is the dimension and $δ> 0$ is a constant, and in some cases we pin down the optimal constant $δ$. Our work resolves open problems posed by Hopkins & Steurer (2017) and Schramm & Wein (2022), and provides rigorous support within the low-degree framework for conjectures by Abbe & Sandon (2018) and Lelarge & Miolane (2019).

Amin Coja-Oghlan, Oliver Gebhard, Max Hahn-Klimroth et al.

We study the group testing problem where the goal is to identify a set of k infected individuals carrying a rare disease within a population of size n, based on the outcomes of pooled tests which return positive whenever there is at least one infected individual in the tested group. We consider two different simple random procedures for assigning individuals to tests: the constant-column design and Bernoulli design. Our first set of results concerns the fundamental statistical limits. For the constant-column design, we give a new information-theoretic lower bound which implies that the proportion of correctly identifiable infected individuals undergoes a sharp "all-or-nothing" phase transition when the number of tests crosses a particular threshold. For the Bernoulli design, we determine the precise number of tests required to solve the associated detection problem (where the goal is to distinguish between a group testing instance and pure noise), improving both the upper and lower bounds of Truong, Aldridge, and Scarlett (2020). For both group testing models, we also study the power of computationally efficient (polynomial-time) inference procedures. We determine the precise number of tests required for the class of low-degree polynomial algorithms to solve the detection problem. This provides evidence for an inherent computational-statistical gap in both the detection and recovery problems at small sparsity levels. Notably, our evidence is contrary to that of Iliopoulos and Zadik (2021), who predicted the absence of a computational-statistical gap in the Bernoulli design.

Alexander S. Wein

Suppose we are given an $n$-dimensional order-3 symmetric tensor $T \in (\mathbb{R}^n)^{\otimes 3}$ that is the sum of $r$ random rank-1 terms. The problem of recovering the rank-1 components is possible in principle when $r \lesssim n^2$ but polynomial-time algorithms are only known in the regime $r \ll n^{3/2}$. Similar "statistical-computational gaps" occur in many high-dimensional inference tasks, and in recent years there has been a flurry of work on explaining the apparent computational hardness in these problems by proving lower bounds against restricted (yet powerful) models of computation such as statistical queries (SQ), sum-of-squares (SoS), and low-degree polynomials (LDP). However, no such prior work exists for tensor decomposition, largely because its hardness does not appear to be explained by a "planted versus null" testing problem. We consider a model for random order-3 tensor decomposition where one component is slightly larger in norm than the rest (to break symmetry), and the components are drawn uniformly from the hypercube. We resolve the computational complexity in the LDP model: $O(\log n)$-degree polynomial functions of the tensor entries can accurately estimate the largest component when $r \ll n^{3/2}$ but fail to do so when $r \gg n^{3/2}$. This provides rigorous evidence suggesting that the best known algorithms for tensor decomposition cannot be improved, at least by known approaches. A natural extension of the result holds for tensors of any fixed order $k \ge 3$, in which case the LDP threshold is $r \sim n^{k/2}$.

Pravesh K. Kothari, Ankur Moitra, Alexander S. Wein

Motivated by connections between algebraic complexity lower bounds and tensor decompositions, we investigate Koszul-Young flattenings, which are the main ingredient in recent lower bounds for matrix multiplication. Based on this tool we give a new algorithm for decomposing an $n_1 \times n_2 \times n_3$ tensor as the sum of a minimal number of rank-1 terms, and certifying uniqueness of this decomposition. For $n_1 \le n_2 \le n_3$ with $n_1 \to \infty$ and $n_3/n_2 = O(1)$, our algorithm is guaranteed to succeed when the tensor rank is bounded by $r \le (1-ε)(n_2 + n_3)$ for an arbitrary $ε> 0$, provided the tensor components are generically chosen. For any fixed $ε$, the runtime is polynomial in $n_3$. When $n_2 = n_3 = n$, our condition on the rank gives a factor-of-2 improvement over the classical simultaneous diagonalization algorithm, which requires $r \le n$, and also improves on the recent algorithm of Koiran (2024) which requires $r \le 4n/3$. It also improves on the PhD thesis of Persu (2018) which solves rank detection for $r \leq 3n/2$. We complement our upper bounds by showing limitations, in particular that no flattening of the style we consider can surpass rank $n_2 + n_3$. Furthermore, for $n \times n \times n$ tensors, we show that an even more general class of degree-$d$ polynomial flattenings cannot surpass rank $Cn$ for a constant $C = C(d)$. This suggests that for tensor decompositions, the case of generic components may be fundamentally harder than that of random components, where efficient decomposition is possible even in highly overcomplete settings.

Ilias Zadik, Min Jae Song, Alexander S. Wein et al.

Clustering is a fundamental primitive in unsupervised learning which gives rise to a rich class of computationally-challenging inference tasks. In this work, we focus on the canonical task of clustering d-dimensional Gaussian mixtures with unknown (and possibly degenerate) covariance. Recent works (Ghosh et al. '20; Mao, Wein '21; Davis, Diaz, Wang '21) have established lower bounds against the class of low-degree polynomial methods and the sum-of-squares (SoS) hierarchy for recovering certain hidden structures planted in Gaussian clustering instances. Prior work on many similar inference tasks portends that such lower bounds strongly suggest the presence of an inherent statistical-to-computational gap for clustering, that is, a parameter regime where the clustering task is statistically possible but no polynomial-time algorithm succeeds. One special case of the clustering task we consider is equivalent to the problem of finding a planted hypercube vector in an otherwise random subspace. We show that, perhaps surprisingly, this particular clustering model does not exhibit a statistical-to-computational gap, even though the aforementioned low-degree and SoS lower bounds continue to apply in this case. To achieve this, we give a polynomial-time algorithm based on the Lenstra--Lenstra--Lovasz lattice basis reduction method which achieves the statistically-optimal sample complexity of d+1 samples. This result extends the class of problems whose conjectured statistical-to-computational gaps can be "closed" by "brittle" polynomial-time algorithms, highlighting the crucial but subtle role of noise in the onset of statistical-to-computational gaps.

Cheng Mao, Alexander S. Wein

Recovering a planted vector $v$ in an $n$-dimensional random subspace of $\mathbb{R}^N$ is a generic task related to many problems in machine learning and statistics, such as dictionary learning, subspace recovery, principal component analysis, and non-Gaussian component analysis. In this work, we study computationally efficient estimation and detection of a planted vector $v$ whose $\ell_4$ norm differs from that of a Gaussian vector with the same $\ell_2$ norm. For instance, in the special case where $v$ is an $N ρ$-sparse vector with Bernoulli-Gaussian or Bernoulli-Rademacher entries, our results include the following: (1) We give an improved analysis of a slight variant of the spectral method proposed by Hopkins, Schramm, Shi, and Steurer (2016), showing that it approximately recovers $v$ with high probability in the regime $n ρ\ll \sqrt{N}$. This condition subsumes the conditions $ρ\ll 1/\sqrt{n}$ or $n \sqrtρ \lesssim \sqrt{N}$ required by previous work up to polylogarithmic factors. We achieve $\ell_\infty$ error bounds for the spectral estimator via a leave-one-out analysis, from which it follows that a simple thresholding procedure exactly recovers $v$ with Bernoulli-Rademacher entries, even in the dense case $ρ= 1$. (2) We study the associated detection problem and show that in the regime $n ρ\gg \sqrt{N}$, any spectral method from a large class (and more generally, any low-degree polynomial of the input) fails to detect the planted vector. This matches the condition for recovery and offers evidence that no polynomial-time algorithm can succeed in recovering a Bernoulli-Gaussian vector $v$ when $n ρ\gg \sqrt{N}$.

Alexander S. Wein

We study the algorithmic task of finding a large independent set in a sparse Erdős-Rényi random graph with $n$ vertices and average degree $d$. The maximum independent set is known to have size $(2 \log d / d)n$ in the double limit $n \to \infty$ followed by $d \to \infty$, but the best known polynomial-time algorithms can only find an independent set of half-optimal size $(\log d / d)n$. We show that the class of low-degree polynomial algorithms can find independent sets of half-optimal size but no larger, improving upon a result of Gamarnik, Jagannath, and the author. This generalizes earlier work by Rahman and Virág, which proved the analogous result for the weaker class of local algorithms.

Tselil Schramm, Alexander S. Wein

One fundamental goal of high-dimensional statistics is to detect or recover planted structure (such as a low-rank matrix) hidden in noisy data. A growing body of work studies low-degree polynomials as a restricted model of computation for such problems: it has been demonstrated in various settings that low-degree polynomials of the data can match the statistical performance of the best known polynomial-time algorithms. Prior work has studied the power of low-degree polynomials for the task of detecting the presence of hidden structures. In this work, we extend these methods to address problems of estimation and recovery (instead of detection). For a large class of "signal plus noise" problems, we give a user-friendly lower bound for the best possible mean squared error achievable by any degree-D polynomial. To our knowledge, these are the first results to establish low-degree hardness of recovery problems for which the associated detection problem is easy. As applications, we give a tight characterization of the low-degree minimum mean squared error for the planted submatrix and planted dense subgraph problems, resolving (in the low-degree framework) open problems about the computational complexity of recovery in both cases.

Gérard Ben Arous, Alexander S. Wein, Ilias Zadik

We study a variant of the sparse PCA (principal component analysis) problem in the "hard" regime, where the inference task is possible yet no polynomial-time algorithm is known to exist. Prior work, based on the low-degree likelihood ratio, has conjectured a precise expression for the best possible (sub-exponential) runtime throughout the hard regime. Following instead a statistical physics inspired point of view, we show bounds on the depth of free energy wells for various Gibbs measures naturally associated to the problem. These free energy wells imply hitting time lower bounds that corroborate the low-degree conjecture: we show that a class of natural MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods (with worst-case initialization) cannot solve sparse PCA with less than the conjectured runtime. These lower bounds apply to a wide range of values for two tuning parameters: temperature and sparsity misparametrization. Finally, we prove that the Overlap Gap Property (OGP), a structural property that implies failure of certain local search algorithms, holds in a significant part of the hard regime.

Yunzi Ding, Dmitriy Kunisky, Alexander S. Wein et al.

In compressed sensing, the restricted isometry property (RIP) on $M \times N$ sensing matrices (where $M < N$) guarantees efficient reconstruction of sparse vectors. A matrix has the $(s,δ)$-$\mathsf{RIP}$ property if behaves as a $δ$-approximate isometry on $s$-sparse vectors. It is well known that an $M\times N$ matrix with i.i.d. $\mathcal{N}(0,1/M)$ entries is $(s,δ)$-$\mathsf{RIP}$ with high probability as long as $s\lesssim δ^2 M/\log N$. On the other hand, most prior works aiming to deterministically construct $(s,δ)$-$\mathsf{RIP}$ matrices have failed when $s \gg \sqrt{M}$. An alternative way to find an RIP matrix could be to draw a random gaussian matrix and certify that it is indeed RIP. However, there is evidence that this certification task is computationally hard when $s \gg \sqrt{M}$, both in the worst case and the average case. In this paper, we investigate the exact average-case time complexity of certifying the RIP property for $M\times N$ matrices with i.i.d. $\mathcal{N}(0,1/M)$ entries, in the "possible but hard" regime $\sqrt{M} \ll s\lesssim M/\log N$. Based on analysis of the low-degree likelihood ratio, we give rigorous evidence that subexponential runtime $N^{\tildeΩ(s^2/M)}$ is required, demonstrating a smooth tradeoff between the maximum tolerated sparsity and the required computational power. This lower bound is essentially tight, matching the runtime of an existing algorithm due to Koiran and Zouzias. Our hardness result allows $δ$ to take any constant value in $(0,1)$, which captures the relevant regime for compressed sensing. This improves upon the existing average-case hardness result of Wang, Berthet, and Plan, which is limited to $δ= o(1)$.

Matthias Löffler, Alexander S. Wein, Afonso S. Bandeira

We study statistical and computational limits of clustering when the means of the centres are sparse and their dimension is possibly much larger than the sample size. Our theoretical analysis focuses on the model $X_i = z_i θ+ \varepsilon_i, ~z_i \in \{-1,1\}, ~\varepsilon_i \thicksim \mathcal{N}(0,I)$, which has two clusters with centres $θ$ and $-θ$. We provide a finite sample analysis of a new sparse clustering algorithm based on sparse PCA and show that it achieves the minimax optimal misclustering rate in the regime $\|θ\| \rightarrow \infty$. Our results require the sparsity to grow slower than the square root of the sample size. Using a recent framework for computational lower bounds -- the low-degree likelihood ratio -- we give evidence that this condition is necessary for any polynomial-time clustering algorithm to succeed below the BBP threshold. This complements existing evidence based on reductions and statistical query lower bounds. Compared to these existing results, we cover a wider set of parameter regimes and give a more precise understanding of the runtime required and the misclustering error achievable. Our results imply that a large class of tests based on low-degree polynomials fail to solve even the weak testing task.

David Gamarnik, Aukosh Jagannath, Alexander S. Wein

We consider the problem of finding nearly optimal solutions of optimization problems with random objective functions. Two concrete problems we consider are (a) optimizing the Hamiltonian of a spherical or Ising $p$-spin glass model, and (b) finding a large independent set in a sparse Erdős-Rényi graph. The following families of algorithms are considered: (a) low-degree polynomials of the input; (b) low-depth Boolean circuits; (c) the Langevin dynamics algorithm. We show that these families of algorithms fail to produce nearly optimal solutions with high probability. For the case of Boolean circuits, our results improve the state-of-the-art bounds known in circuit complexity theory (although we consider the search problem as opposed to the decision problem). Our proof uses the fact that these models are known to exhibit a variant of the overlap gap property (OGP) of near-optimal solutions. Specifically, for both models, every two solutions whose objectives are above a certain threshold are either close or far from each other. The crux of our proof is that the classes of algorithms we consider exhibit a form of stability. We show by an interpolation argument that stable algorithms cannot overcome the OGP barrier. The stability of Langevin dynamics is an immediate consequence of the well-posedness of stochastic differential equations. The stability of low-degree polynomials and Boolean circuits is established using tools from Gaussian and Boolean analysis -- namely hypercontractivity and total influence, as well as a novel lower bound for random walks avoiding certain subsets. In the case of Boolean circuits, the result also makes use of Linal-Mansour-Nisan's classical theorem. Our techniques apply more broadly to low influence functions and may apply more generally.

Justin Holmgren, Alexander S. Wein

A conjecture of Hopkins (2018) posits that for certain high-dimensional hypothesis testing problems, no polynomial-time algorithm can outperform so-called "simple statistics", which are low-degree polynomials in the data. This conjecture formalizes the beliefs surrounding a line of recent work that seeks to understand statistical-versus-computational tradeoffs via the low-degree likelihood ratio. In this work, we refute the conjecture of Hopkins. However, our counterexample crucially exploits the specifics of the noise operator used in the conjecture, and we point out a simple way to modify the conjecture to rule out our counterexample. We also give an example illustrating that (even after the above modification), the symmetry assumption in the conjecture is necessary. These results do not undermine the low-degree framework for computational lower bounds, but rather aim to better understand what class of problems it is applicable to.

Dmitriy Kunisky, Alexander S. Wein, Afonso S. Bandeira

These notes survey and explore an emerging method, which we call the low-degree method, for predicting and understanding statistical-versus-computational tradeoffs in high-dimensional inference problems. In short, the method posits that a certain quantity -- the second moment of the low-degree likelihood ratio -- gives insight into how much computational time is required to solve a given hypothesis testing problem, which can in turn be used to predict the computational hardness of a variety of statistical inference tasks. While this method originated in the study of the sum-of-squares (SoS) hierarchy of convex programs, we present a self-contained introduction that does not require knowledge of SoS. In addition to showing how to carry out predictions using the method, we include a discussion investigating both rigorous and conjectural consequences of these predictions. These notes include some new results, simplified proofs, and refined conjectures. For instance, we point out a formal connection between spectral methods and the low-degree likelihood ratio, and we give a sharp low-degree lower bound against subexponential-time algorithms for tensor PCA.

Yunzi Ding, Dmitriy Kunisky, Alexander S. Wein et al.

We study the computational cost of recovering a unit-norm sparse principal component $x \in \mathbb{R}^n$ planted in a random matrix, in either the Wigner or Wishart spiked model (observing either $W + λxx^\top$ with $W$ drawn from the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, or $N$ independent samples from $\mathcal{N}(0, I_n + βxx^\top)$, respectively). Prior work has shown that when the signal-to-noise ratio ($λ$ or $β\sqrt{N/n}$, respectively) is a small constant and the fraction of nonzero entries in the planted vector is $\|x\|_0 / n = ρ$, it is possible to recover $x$ in polynomial time if $ρ\lesssim 1/\sqrt{n}$. While it is possible to recover $x$ in exponential time under the weaker condition $ρ\ll 1$, it is believed that polynomial-time recovery is impossible unless $ρ\lesssim 1/\sqrt{n}$. We investigate the precise amount of time required for recovery in the "possible but hard" regime $1/\sqrt{n} \ll ρ\ll 1$ by exploring the power of subexponential-time algorithms, i.e., algorithms running in time $\exp(n^δ)$ for some constant $δ\in (0,1)$. For any $1/\sqrt{n} \ll ρ\ll 1$, we give a recovery algorithm with runtime roughly $\exp(ρ^2 n)$, demonstrating a smooth tradeoff between sparsity and runtime. Our family of algorithms interpolates smoothly between two existing algorithms: the polynomial-time diagonal thresholding algorithm and the $\exp(ρn)$-time exhaustive search algorithm. Furthermore, by analyzing the low-degree likelihood ratio, we give rigorous evidence suggesting that the tradeoff achieved by our algorithms is optimal.

Alexander S. Wein, Ahmed El Alaoui, Cristopher Moore

For the tensor PCA (principal component analysis) problem, we propose a new hierarchy of increasingly powerful algorithms with increasing runtime. Our hierarchy is analogous to the sum-of-squares (SOS) hierarchy but is instead inspired by statistical physics and related algorithms such as belief propagation and AMP (approximate message passing). Our level-$\ell$ algorithm can be thought of as a linearized message-passing algorithm that keeps track of $\ell$-wise dependencies among the hidden variables. Specifically, our algorithms are spectral methods based on the Kikuchi Hessian, which generalizes the well-studied Bethe Hessian to the higher-order Kikuchi free energies. It is known that AMP, the flagship algorithm of statistical physics, has substantially worse performance than SOS for tensor PCA. In this work we 'redeem' the statistical physics approach by showing that our hierarchy gives a polynomial-time algorithm matching the performance of SOS. Our hierarchy also yields a continuum of subexponential-time algorithms, and we prove that these achieve the same (conjecturally optimal) tradeoff between runtime and statistical power as SOS. Our proofs are much simpler than prior work, and also apply to the related problem of refuting random $k$-XOR formulas. The results we present here apply to tensor PCA for tensors of all orders, and to $k$-XOR when $k$ is even. Our methods suggest a new avenue for systematically obtaining optimal algorithms for Bayesian inference problems, and our results constitute a step toward unifying the statistical physics and sum-of-squares approaches to algorithm design.

Ankur Moitra, Alexander S. Wein

A tensor network is a diagram that specifies a way to "multiply" a collection of tensors together to produce another tensor (or matrix). Many existing algorithms for tensor problems (such as tensor decomposition and tensor PCA), although they are not presented this way, can be viewed as spectral methods on matrices built from simple tensor networks. In this work we leverage the full power of this abstraction to design new algorithms for certain continuous tensor decomposition problems. An important and challenging family of tensor problems comes from orbit recovery, a class of inference problems involving group actions (inspired by applications such as cryo-electron microscopy). Orbit recovery problems over finite groups can often be solved via standard tensor methods. However, for infinite groups, no general algorithms are known. We give a new spectral algorithm based on tensor networks for one such problem: continuous multi-reference alignment over the infinite group SO(2). Our algorithm extends to the more general heterogeneous case.

Amelia Perry, Alexander S. Wein, Afonso S. Bandeira et al.

A central problem of random matrix theory is to understand the eigenvalues of spiked random matrix models, introduced by Johnstone, in which a prominent eigenvector (or "spike") is planted into a random matrix. These distributions form natural statistical models for principal component analysis (PCA) problems throughout the sciences. Baik, Ben Arous and Peche showed that the spiked Wishart ensemble exhibits a sharp phase transition asymptotically: when the spike strength is above a critical threshold, it is possible to detect the presence of a spike based on the top eigenvalue, and below the threshold the top eigenvalue provides no information. Such results form the basis of our understanding of when PCA can detect a low-rank signal in the presence of noise. However, under structural assumptions on the spike, not all information is necessarily contained in the spectrum. We study the statistical limits of tests for the presence of a spike, including non-spectral tests. Our results leverage Le Cam's notion of contiguity, and include: i) For the Gaussian Wigner ensemble, we show that PCA achieves the optimal detection threshold for certain natural priors for the spike. ii) For any non-Gaussian Wigner ensemble, PCA is sub-optimal for detection. However, an efficient variant of PCA achieves the optimal threshold (for natural priors) by pre-transforming the matrix entries. iii) For the Gaussian Wishart ensemble, the PCA threshold is optimal for positive spikes (for natural priors) but this is not always the case for negative spikes.

Afonso S. Bandeira, Amelia Perry, Alexander S. Wein

In these notes we describe heuristics to predict computational-to-statistical gaps in certain statistical problems. These are regimes in which the underlying statistical problem is information-theoretically possible although no efficient algorithm exists, rendering the problem essentially unsolvable for large instances. The methods we describe here are based on mature, albeit non-rigorous, tools from statistical physics. These notes are based on a lecture series given by the authors at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences in New York City, on May 16th, 2017.

Amelia Perry, Alexander S. Wein, Afonso S. Bandeira

We study the statistical limits of both detecting and estimating a rank-one deformation of a symmetric random Gaussian tensor. We establish upper and lower bounds on the critical signal-to-noise ratio, under a variety of priors for the planted vector: (i) a uniformly sampled unit vector, (ii) i.i.d. $\pm 1$ entries, and (iii) a sparse vector where a constant fraction $ρ$ of entries are i.i.d. $\pm 1$ and the rest are zero. For each of these cases, our upper and lower bounds match up to a $1+o(1)$ factor as the order $d$ of the tensor becomes large. For sparse signals (iii), our bounds are also asymptotically tight in the sparse limit $ρ\to 0$ for any fixed $d$ (including the $d=2$ case of sparse PCA). Our upper bounds for (i) demonstrate a phenomenon reminiscent of the work of Baik, Ben Arous and Péché: an `eigenvalue' of a perturbed tensor emerges from the bulk at a strictly lower signal-to-noise ratio than when the perturbation itself exceeds the bulk; we quantify the size of this effect. We also provide some general results for larger classes of priors. In particular, the large $d$ asymptotics of the threshold location differs between problems with discrete priors versus continuous priors. Finally, for priors (i) and (ii) we carry out the replica prediction from statistical physics, which is conjectured to give the exact information-theoretic threshold for any fixed $d$. Of independent interest, we introduce a new improvement to the second moment method for contiguity, on which our lower bounds are based. Our technique conditions away from rare `bad' events that depend on interactions between the signal and noise. This enables us to close $\sqrt{2}$-factor gaps present in several previous works.

Amelia Perry, Alexander S. Wein, Afonso S. Bandeira et al.

Various alignment problems arising in cryo-electron microscopy, community detection, time synchronization, computer vision, and other fields fall into a common framework of synchronization problems over compact groups such as Z/L, U(1), or SO(3). The goal of such problems is to estimate an unknown vector of group elements given noisy relative observations. We present an efficient iterative algorithm to solve a large class of these problems, allowing for any compact group, with measurements on multiple 'frequency channels' (Fourier modes, or more generally, irreducible representations of the group). Our algorithm is a highly efficient iterative method following the blueprint of approximate message passing (AMP), which has recently arisen as a central technique for inference problems such as structured low-rank estimation and compressed sensing. We augment the standard ideas of AMP with ideas from representation theory so that the algorithm can work with distributions over compact groups. Using standard but non-rigorous methods from statistical physics we analyze the behavior of our algorithm on a Gaussian noise model, identifying phases where the problem is easy, (computationally) hard, and (statistically) impossible. In particular, such evidence predicts that our algorithm is information-theoretically optimal in many cases, and that the remaining cases show evidence of statistical-to-computational gaps.

Amelia Perry, Alexander S. Wein, Afonso S. Bandeira et al.

A central problem of random matrix theory is to understand the eigenvalues of spiked random matrix models, in which a prominent eigenvector is planted into a random matrix. These distributions form natural statistical models for principal component analysis (PCA) problems throughout the sciences. Baik, Ben Arous and Péché showed that the spiked Wishart ensemble exhibits a sharp phase transition asymptotically: when the signal strength is above a critical threshold, it is possible to detect the presence of a spike based on the top eigenvalue, and below the threshold the top eigenvalue provides no information. Such results form the basis of our understanding of when PCA can detect a low-rank signal in the presence of noise. However, not all the information about the spike is necessarily contained in the spectrum. We study the fundamental limitations of statistical methods, including non-spectral ones. Our results include: I) For the Gaussian Wigner ensemble, we show that PCA achieves the optimal detection threshold for a variety of benign priors for the spike. We extend previous work on the spherically symmetric and i.i.d. Rademacher priors through an elementary, unified analysis. II) For any non-Gaussian Wigner ensemble, we show that PCA is always suboptimal for detection. However, a variant of PCA achieves the optimal threshold (for benign priors) by pre-transforming the matrix entries according to a carefully designed function. This approach has been stated before, and we give a rigorous and general analysis. III) For both the Gaussian Wishart ensemble and various synchronization problems over groups, we show that inefficient procedures can work below the threshold where PCA succeeds, whereas no known efficient algorithm achieves this. This conjectural gap between what is statistically possible and what can be done efficiently remains open.

Ankur Moitra, William Perry, Alexander S. Wein

The stochastic block model is one of the oldest and most ubiquitous models for studying clustering and community detection. In an exciting sequence of developments, motivated by deep but non-rigorous ideas from statistical physics, Decelle et al. conjectured a sharp threshold for when community detection is possible in the sparse regime. Mossel, Neeman and Sly and Massoulie proved the conjecture and gave matching algorithms and lower bounds. Here we revisit the stochastic block model from the perspective of semirandom models where we allow an adversary to make `helpful' changes that strengthen ties within each community and break ties between them. We show a surprising result that these `helpful' changes can shift the information-theoretic threshold, making the community detection problem strictly harder. We complement this by showing that an algorithm based on semidefinite programming (which was known to get close to the threshold) continues to work in the semirandom model (even for partial recovery). This suggests that algorithms based on semidefinite programming are robust in ways that any algorithm meeting the information-theoretic threshold cannot be. These results point to an interesting new direction: Can we find robust, semirandom analogues to some of the classical, average-case thresholds in statistics? We also explore this question in the broadcast tree model, and we show that the viewpoint of semirandom models can help explain why some algorithms are preferred to others in practice, in spite of the gaps in their statistical performance on random models.

Amelia Perry, Alexander S. Wein

We propose a semidefinite programming (SDP) algorithm for community detection in the stochastic block model, a popular model for networks with latent community structure. We prove that our algorithm achieves exact recovery of the latent communities, up to the information-theoretic limits determined by Abbe and Sandon (2015). Our result extends prior SDP approaches by allowing for many communities of different sizes. By virtue of a semidefinite approach, our algorithms succeed against a semirandom variant of the stochastic block model, guaranteeing a form of robustness and generalization. We further explore how semirandom models can lend insight into both the strengths and limitations of SDPs in this setting.