Mengshuo Jia

Mengshuo Jia, Chen Shen, Zhaojian Wang

Due to the uncertainty of distributed wind generations (DWGs), a better understanding of the probability distributions (PD) of their wind power forecast errors (WPFEs) can help market participants (MPs) who own DWGs perform better during trading. Under the premise of an accurate PD model, considering the correlation among DWGs and absorbing the new information carried by the latest data are two ways to maintain an accurate PD. These two ways both require the historical and latest wind power and forecast data of all DWGs. Each MP, however, only has access to the data of its own DWGs and may refuse to share these data with MPs belonging to other stakeholders. Besides, because of the endless generation of new data, the PD updating burden increases sharply. Therefore, we use the distributed strategy to deal with the data collection problem. In addition, we further apply the incremental learning strategy to reduce the updating burden. Finally, we propose a distributed incremental update scheme to make each MP continually acquire the latest conditional PD of its DWGs' WPFE. Specifically, we first use the Gaussian-mixture-model-based (GMM-based) joint PD to characterize the correlation among DWGs. Then, we propose a distributed modified incremental GMM algorithm to enable MPs to update the parameters of the joint PD in a distributed and incremental manner. After that, we further propose a distributed derivation algorithm to make MPs derive their conditional PD of WPFE from the joint one in a distributed way. Combining the two original algorithms, we finally achieve the complete distributed incremental update scheme, by which each MP can continually obtain its latest conditional PD of its DWGs' WPFE via neighborhood communication and local calculation with its own data. The effectiveness, correctness, and efficiency of the proposed scheme are verified using the dataset from the NREL.

Mengshuo Jia, Zeyu Cui, Gabriela Hug

The integration of experimental technologies with large language models (LLMs) is transforming scientific research. It positions AI as a versatile research assistant rather than a mere problem-solving tool. In the field of power systems, however, managing simulations -- one of the essential experimental technologies -- remains a challenge for LLMs due to their limited domain-specific knowledge, restricted reasoning capabilities, and imprecise handling of simulation parameters. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a feedback-driven, multi-agent framework. It incorporates three proposed modules: an enhanced retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) module, an improved reasoning module, and a dynamic environmental acting module with an error-feedback mechanism. Validated on 69 diverse tasks from Daline and MATPOWER, this framework achieves success rates of 93.13% and 96.85%, respectively. It significantly outperforms ChatGPT 4o, o1-preview, and the fine-tuned GPT-4o, which all achieved a success rate lower than 30% on complex tasks. Additionally, the proposed framework also supports rapid, cost-effective task execution, completing each simulation in approximately 30 seconds at an average cost of 0.014 USD for tokens. Overall, this adaptable framework lays a foundation for developing intelligent LLM-based assistants for human researchers, facilitating power system research and beyond.

Wenlong Liao, Zhe Yang, Mengshuo Jia et al.

Deep learning models have shown strong performance in load forecasting, but they generally require large amounts of data for model training before being applied to new scenarios, which limits their effectiveness in data-scarce scenarios. Inspired by the great success of pre-trained language models (LLMs) in natural language processing, this paper proposes a zero-shot load forecasting approach using an advanced LLM framework denoted as the Chronos model. By utilizing its extensive pre-trained knowledge, the Chronos model enables accurate load forecasting in data-scarce scenarios without the need for extensive data-specific training. Simulation results across five real-world datasets demonstrate that the Chronos model significantly outperforms nine popular baseline models for both deterministic and probabilistic load forecasting with various forecast horizons (e.g., 1 to 48 hours), even though the Chronos model is neither tailored nor fine-tuned to these specific load datasets. Notably, Chronos reduces root mean squared error (RMSE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), and quantile score (QS) by approximately 7.34%-84.30%, 19.63%-60.06%, and 22.83%-54.49%, respectively, compared to baseline models. These results highlight the superiority and flexibility of the Chronos model, positioning it as an effective solution in data-scarce scenarios.

Mengshuo Jia, Zeyu Cui, Gabriela Hug

The integration of experiment technologies with large language models (LLMs) is transforming scientific research, offering AI capabilities beyond specialized problem-solving to becoming research assistants for human scientists. In power systems, simulations are essential for research. However, LLMs face significant challenges in power system simulations due to limited pre-existing knowledge and the complexity of power grids. To address this issue, this work proposes a modular framework that integrates expertise from both the power system and LLM domains. This framework enhances LLMs' ability to perform power system simulations on previously unseen tools. Validated using 34 simulation tasks in Daline, a (optimal) power flow simulation and linearization toolbox not yet exposed to LLMs, the proposed framework improved GPT-4o's simulation coding accuracy from 0% to 96.07%, also outperforming the ChatGPT-4o web interface's 33.8% accuracy (with the entire knowledge base uploaded). These results highlight the potential of LLMs as research assistants in power systems.

Mengshuo Jia, Gabriela Hug, Ning Zhang et al.

This two-part tutorial dives into the field of data-driven power flow linearization (DPFL), a domain gaining increased attention. DPFL stands out for its higher approximation accuracy, wide adaptability, and better ability to implicitly incorporate the latest system attributes. This renders DPFL a potentially superior option for managing the significant fluctuations from renewable energy sources, a step towards realizing a more sustainable energy future, by translating the higher model accuracy into increased economic efficiency and less energy losses. To conduct a deep and rigorous reexamination, this tutorial first classifies existing DPFL methods into DPFL training algorithms and supportive techniques. Their mathematical models, analytical solutions, capabilities, limitations, and generalizability are systematically examined, discussed, and summarized. In addition, this tutorial reviews existing DPFL experiments, examining the settings of test systems, the fidelity of datasets, and the comparison made among a limited number of DPFL methods. Further, this tutorial implements extensive numerical comparisons of all existing DPFL methods (40 methods in total) and four classic physics-driven approaches, focusing on their generalizability, applicability, accuracy, and computational efficiency. Through these simulationmethodss, this tutorial aims to reveal the actual performance of all the methods (including the performances exposed to data noise or outliers), guiding the selection of appropriate linearization methods. Furthermore, this tutorial discusses future directions based on the theoretical and numerical insights gained. As the first part, this paper reexamines DPFL theories, covering all the training algorithms and supportive techniques. Capabilities, limitations, and aspects of generalizability, which were previously unmentioned in the literature, have been identified.

Mengshuo Jia, Shaowei Huang, Zhiwen Wang et al.

Building the conditional probability distribution of wind power forecast errors benefits both wind farms (WFs) and independent system operators (ISOs). Establishing the joint probability distribution of wind power and the corresponding forecast data of spatially correlated WFs is the foundation for deriving the conditional probability distribution. Traditional parameter estimation methods for probability distributions require the collection of historical data of all WFs. However, in the context of multi-regional interconnected grids, neither regional ISOs nor WFs can collect the raw data of WFs in other regions due to privacy or competition considerations. Therefore, based on the Gaussian mixture model, this paper first proposes a privacy-preserving distributed expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters of the joint probability distribution. This algorithm consists of two original methods: (1) a privacy-preserving distributed summation algorithm and (2) a privacy-preserving distributed inner product algorithm. Then, we derive each WF's conditional probability distribution of forecast error from the joint one. By the proposed algorithms, WFs only need local calculations and privacy-preserving neighboring communications to achieve the whole parameter estimation. These algorithms are verified using the wind integration data set published by the NREL.