Bri-Mathias Hodge

Hendrik F. Hamann, Thomas Brunschwiler, Blazhe Gjorgiev et al.

Foundation models (FMs) currently dominate news headlines. They employ advanced deep learning architectures to extract structural information autonomously from vast datasets through self-supervision. The resulting rich representations of complex systems and dynamics can be applied to many downstream applications. Therefore, FMs can find uses in electric power grids, challenged by the energy transition and climate change. In this paper, we call for the development of, and state why we believe in, the potential of FMs for electric grids. We highlight their strengths and weaknesses amidst the challenges of a changing grid. We argue that an FM learning from diverse grid data and topologies could unlock transformative capabilities, pioneering a new approach in leveraging AI to redefine how we manage complexity and uncertainty in the electric grid. Finally, we discuss a power grid FM concept, namely GridFM, based on graph neural networks and show how different downstream tasks benefit.

Amir Sajadi, Muhy Eddin Za'ter, Maria Vabson et al.

This article addresses recent advances in artificial intelligence, which have set off an astounding race among technology frontiers to build large data centers. It provides insights into impacts of large data centers on the planning and operation of the power grid.

Muhy Eddin Za'ter, Bri-Mathias Hodge

Accurate forecasting of electric load and renewable generation is essential for reliable and cost effective power system operations. Recent advances in transformer based and foundation machine learning models, driven by large scale pretraining, increased available data and computation, in addition to architectural innovations, have shown promise in time series forecasting across multiple domains. However, their application to power system forecasting tasks remains largely underexplored. This work presents a comprehensive, empirical benchmark of state of the art time series foundation models, transformer architectures, and deep learning baselines for solar, wind, and load forecasting using the high resolution ARPAE PERFORM dataset for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. Eight core capabilities are assessed, including zero shot performance, fine tuning efficiency, multivariate input and output handling, horizon sensitivity, generalization to unseen sites, probabilistic forecasting, and context window effects. Models evaluated include TimesFM, Chronos Bolt, MoiraiL, MOMENT, Tiny Time Mixer, Temporal Fusion Transformer, PatchTST, TimeXer, LSTM, and CNN. The manuscript aims to provide clear guidance on when foundation models can provide enhanced renewable and load forecasting capabilities and when other approaches remain the more practical choice for power system operations.

Mads R. Almassalkhi, Dakota Hamilton, Hasan Giray Oral et al.

Electric power systems are rapidly evolving into deeply digital, cyber-physical infrastructures in which large fleets of distributed energy resources must be coordinated as system-level flexibility across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Despite growing distributed energy resource deployment, existing grid and market architectures lack scalable, interoperable mechanisms to reliably translate device-level flexibility into grid-aware services, creating risks to reliability, affordability, and resilience at high penetration. We propose that scalable and reliable coordination of distributed energy resource-based flexibility in future power systems is fundamentally an architectural problem that can be addressed through laminar cyber-physical design using minimal, standardized interoperability interfaces that link device autonomy with system-level objectives. To assess this claim, we present and discuss a layered cyber-physical systems architecture and explicate its implementation through standards-based interfaces, Flexibility Functions, hierarchical control, and case studies spanning U.S. and Danish regulatory, market, and operational contexts. Empirical evidence from New York's Grid of the Future proceedings, Danish Smart Energy Operating System pilots, and operational aggregator deployments demonstrates that such architecture enables predictable, grid-aware flexibility while preserving device autonomy, interoperability, reliability, and quality of service. These results support a cross-Atlantic research agenda centered on joint testbeds, harmonized interoperability mechanisms, and coordinated policy experiments to accelerate the deployment of resilient, scalable, and flexible clean energy systems.

Muhy Eddin Za'ter, Amirhossein Sajadi, Bri-Mathias Hodge

This paper develops a novel machine learning-based framework using Semi-Supervised Multi-Task Learning (SS-MTL) for power system dynamic security assessment that is accurate, reliable, and aware of topological changes. The learning algorithm underlying the proposed framework integrates conditional masked encoders and employs multi-task learning for classification-aware feature representation, which improves the accuracy and scalability to larger systems. Additionally, this framework incorporates a confidence measure for its predictions, enhancing its reliability and interpretability. A topological similarity index has also been incorporated to add topological awareness to the framework. Various experiments on the IEEE 68-bus system were conducted to validate the proposed method, employing two distinct database generation techniques to generate the required data to train the machine learning algorithm. The results demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms existing state-of-the-art machine learning based techniques for security assessment in terms of accuracy and robustness. Finally, our work underscores the value of employing auto-encoders for security assessment, highlighting improvements in accuracy, reliability, and robustness. All datasets and codes used have been made publicly available to ensure reproducibility and transparency.

Nidhin Harilal, Bri-Mathias Hodge, Aneesh Subramanian et al.

Supervised and unsupervised techniques have demonstrated the potential for temporal interpolation of video data. Nevertheless, most prevailing temporal interpolation techniques hinge on optical flow, which encodes the motion of pixels between video frames. On the other hand, geospatial data exhibits lower temporal resolution while encompassing a spectrum of movements and deformations that challenge several assumptions inherent to optical flow. In this work, we propose an unsupervised temporal interpolation technique, which does not rely on ground truth data or require any motion information like optical flow, thus offering a promising alternative for better generalization across geospatial domains. Specifically, we introduce a self-supervised technique of dual cycle consistency. Our proposed technique incorporates multiple cycle consistency losses, which result from interpolating two frames between consecutive input frames through a series of stages. This dual cycle consistent constraint causes the model to produce intermediate frames in a self-supervised manner. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at unsupervised temporal interpolation without the explicit use of optical flow. Our experimental evaluations across diverse geospatial datasets show that STint significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods for unsupervised temporal interpolation.

Fiona Majeau, Jose Daniel Lara, Eduardo Corona et al.

Electromagnetic transient (EMT) models are index-2 differential-algebraic equations when they include certain topologies and are formulated with modified nodal analysis. Such systems are difficult to numerically integrate, a challenge that is currently addressed by applying model approximations or reformulating with index-reduction algorithms. These algorithms exist in general-purpose software tools, but their reliance on symbolic representation makes them computationally prohibitive for large network-wide EMT models. This paper derives and presents two modular index-reduced subsystem models that allow EMT models to be integrated with standard solvers, without approximations or symbolic algorithms. Both subsystems include a transformer, one isolated and one machine-coupled. We measure the computational performance of constructing EMT models with up to 1152 buses using the custom subsystem models and the symbolic algorithms. The custom approach reduces memory usage and runtime of model construction by several orders of magnitude compared to the general approach, shifting the bottleneck from construction to integration.

Muhy Eddin Za'ter, Anna Van Boven, Bri-Mathias Hodge et al.

Maintaining instantaneous balance between electricity supply and demand is critical for reliability and grid instability. System operators achieve this through solving the task of Unit Commitment (UC),ca high dimensional large-scale Mixed-integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem that is strictly and heavily governed by the grid physical constraints. As grid integrate variable renewable sources, and new technologies such as long duration storage in the grid, UC must be optimally solved for multi-day horizons and potentially with greater frequency. Therefore, traditional MILP solvers increasingly struggle to compute solutions within these tightening operational time limits. To bypass these computational bottlenecks, this paper proposes a novel framework utilizing a transformer-based architecture to predict generator commitment schedules over a 72-hour horizon. Also, because raw predictions in highly dimensional spaces often yield physically infeasible results, the pipeline integrates the self-attention network with deterministic post-processing heuristics that systematically enforce minimum up/down times and minimize excess capacity. Finally, these refined predictions are utilized as a warm start for a downstream MILP solver, while employing a confidence-based variable fixation strategy to drastically reduce the combinatorial search space. Validated on a single-bus test system, the complete multi-stage pipeline achieves 100\% feasibility and significantly accelerates computation times. Notably, in approximately 20\% of test instances, the proposed model reached a feasible operational schedule with a lower overall system cost than relying solely on the solver.

Amir Sajadi, Barry Mather, Bri-Mathias Hodge

Large-scale integration of inverter-based resources into power grids worldwide is challenging their stability and security. This paper takes a closer look at synchronous condensers as a solution to mitigate stability challenges caused by the preponderance of grid-following inverters. It finds that while they are not grid-forming assets themselves, they could enhance grid stability. Throughout this paper, different facets of power system stability and their underlying phenomena are discussed. In addition, instances of instability and mitigation strategies using synchronous condenser are demonstrated using electromagnetic transient simulations. The analysis in this paper highlights the underlying mechanism by which synchronous condensers enhance angular stability, frequency response, and voltage stability. Moreover, it underscores the criticality of their choice of location by demonstrating the destabilizing behavior that could be initiated by the interactions of synchronous condensers.

Bader Alabdulrazzaq, Bri-Mathias Hodge

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) plays an increasingly-important role in modern power grids due to the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). The inherent characteristics of distribution systems make classical estimation methods struggle, and recent advancements in data-driven learning methods, although promising, exhibit systematic failure in generalization and scalability that limits their applicability. In this work, we propose MambaDSSE, a model-free data-driven framework that incorporates Koopman-theoretic probabilistic filtering with a selective state-space model that learn to infer the underlying time-varying behavior of the system from data. We evaluate the model across a variety of test systems and scenarios, and demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms machine learning baselines on scalability, resilience to DER penetration levels, and robustness to data sampling rate irregularities. We further highlight the Mamba-based SSM's ability to capture long range dependencies from data, improving performance on the DSSE task.

Matt Baughman, Marena Trujillo, Bri-Mathias Hodge et al.

The shift from traditional synchronous generator (SG) based power generation to generation driven by power electronic devices introduces new dynamic phenomena and considerations for the control of large-scale power systems. In this paper, two aspects of all-inverter power systems are investigated: greater localization of system disturbance response and greater system controllability. The prevalence of both of these aspects are shown to be related to the lower effective inertia of inverters and have implications for future widearea control system design. Greater disturbance localization implies the need for feedback measurement placement close to generator nodes to properly reject disturbances in the system while increased system controllability implies that widearea control systems should preferentially actuate inverters to most efficiently control the system. This investigation utilizes reduced-order linear time-invariant models of both SGs and inverters that are shown to capture the frequency dynamics of interest in both all-SG and all-inverter systems, allowing for the efficient use of both frequency and time domain analysis methods.

Muhy Eddin Za'ter, Bri-Mathias Hodge, Kyri Baker

Solving the nonlinear AC optimal power flow (AC OPF) problem remains a major computational bottleneck for real-time grid operations. In this paper, we propose a residual learning paradigm that uses fast DC optimal power flow (DC OPF) solutions as a baseline, and learns only the nonlinear corrections required to provide the full AC-OPF solution. The method utilizes a topology-aware Graph Neural Network with local attention and two-level DC feature integration, trained using a physics-informed loss that enforces AC power-flow feasibility and operational limits. Evaluations on OPFData for 57-, 118-, and 2000-bus systems show around 25% lower MSE, up to 3X reduction in feasibility error, and up to 13X runtime speedup compared to conventional AC OPF solvers. The model maintains accuracy under N-1 contingencies and scales efficiently to large networks. These results demonstrate that residual learning is a practical and scalable bridge between linear approximations and AC-feasible OPF, enabling near real-time operational decision making.

Muhy Eddin Za'ter, Bri-Mathias Hodge

Accurate voltage estimation in distribution networks is critical for real-time monitoring and increasing the reliability of the grid. As DER penetration and distribution level voltage variability increase, robust distribution system state estimation (DSSE) has become more essential to maintain safe and efficient operations. Traditional DSSE techniques, however, struggle with sparse measurements and the scale of modern feeders, limiting their scalability to large networks. This paper presents a hierarchical graph neural network for substation-level voltage estimation that exploits both electrical topology and physical features, while remaining robust to the low observability levels common to real-world distribution networks. Leveraging the public SMART-DS datasets, the model is trained and evaluated on thousands of buses across multiple substations and DER penetration scenarios. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method achieves up to 2 times lower RMSE than alternative data-driven models, and maintains high accuracy with as little as 1\% measurement coverage. The results highlight the potential of GNNs to enable scalable, reproducible, and data-driven voltage monitoring for distribution systems.

Muhy Eddin Za'ter, Amir Sajad, Bri-Mathias Hodge

This paper introduces a novel approach to the power system security assessment using Multi-Task Learning (MTL), and reformulating the problem as a multi-label classification task. The proposed MTL framework simultaneously assesses static, voltage, transient, and small-signal stability, improving both accuracy and interpretability with respect to the most state of the art machine learning methods. It consists of a shared encoder and multiple decoders, enabling knowledge transfer between stability tasks. Experiments on the IEEE 68-bus system demonstrate a measurable superior performance of the proposed method compared to the extant state-of-the-art approaches.

Cong Feng, Mingjian Cui, Bri-Mathias Hodge et al.

Solar forecasting accuracy is affected by weather conditions, and weather awareness forecasting models are expected to improve the performance. However, it may not be available and reliable to classify different forecasting tasks by using only meteorological weather categorization. In this paper, an unsupervised clustering-based (UC-based) solar forecasting methodology is developed for short-term (1-hour-ahead) global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. This methodology consists of three parts: GHI time series unsupervised clustering, pattern recognition, and UC-based forecasting. The daily GHI time series is first clustered by an Optimized Cross-validated ClUsteRing (OCCUR) method, which determines the optimal number of clusters and best clustering results. Then, support vector machine pattern recognition (SVM-PR) is adopted to recognize the category of a certain day using the first few hours' data in the forecasting stage. GHI forecasts are generated by the most suitable models in different clusters, which are built by a two-layer Machine learning based Multi-Model (M3) forecasting framework. The developed UC-based methodology is validated by using 1-year of data with six solar features. Numerical results show that (i) UC-based models outperform non-UC (all-in-one) models with the same M3 architecture by approximately 20%; (ii) M3-based models also outperform the single-algorithm machine learning (SAML) models by approximately 20%.