Ershun Du

Ruike Lyu, Anna Li, Jianxiao Wang et al.

In many countries, declining demand in energy-intensive industries such as cement, steel, and aluminum is leading to industrial overcapacity. Although industrial overcapacity is traditionally envisioned as problematic and resource-wasteful, it could unlock energy-intensive industries' flexibility in electricity use. Here, using China's aluminum smelting industry as a case study, we evaluate the system-level cost-benefit of retaining energy-intensive industries overcapacity for flexible electricity use in decarbonized energy systems. We find that overcapacity can enable aluminum smelters to adopt a seasonal operation paradigm, ceasing production during winter load peaks that are exacerbated by heating electrification and renewable seasonality. This seasonal operation paradigm could reduce the investment and operational costs of China's decarbonized electricity system by 23-32 billion CNY/year (11-15% of the aluminum smelting industry's product value), sufficient to offset the increased smelter maintenance and product storage costs associated with overcapacity. It may also provide an opportunity for seasonally complementary labor deployment across the aluminum smelting and thermal power generation sectors, offering a potential pathway for mitigating socio-economic disruptions caused by industrial restructuring and energy decarbonization.

Qingchun Hou, Ning Zhang, Daniel S. Kirschen et al.

Increasing the penetration of variable generation has a substantial effect on the operational reliability of power systems. The higher level of uncertainty that stems from this variability makes it more difficult to determine whether a given operating condition will be secure or insecure. Data-driven techniques provide a promising way to identify security rules that can be embedded in economic dispatch model to keep power system operating states secure. This paper proposes using a sparse weighted oblique decision tree to learn accurate, understandable, and embeddable security rules that are linear and can be extracted as sparse matrices using a recursive algorithm. These matrices can then be easily embedded as security constraints in power system economic dispatch calculations using the Big-M method. Tests on several large datasets with high renewable energy penetration demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. In particular, the sparse weighted oblique decision tree outperforms the state-of-art weighted oblique decision tree while keeping the security rules simple. When embedded in the economic dispatch, these rules significantly increase the percentage of secure states and reduce the average solution time.