Xue Wang

Lifan Zhao, Yanyan Shen, Zhaoyang Liu et al.

Scaling laws motivate the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that pre-train vast parameters and achieve remarkable zero-shot forecasting performance. Surprisingly, even after fine-tuning, TSFMs cannot consistently outperform smaller, specialized models trained on full-shot downstream data. A key question is how to realize effective adaptation of TSFMs for a target forecasting task. Through empirical studies on various TSFMs, the pre-trained models often exhibit inherent sparsity and redundancy in computation, suggesting that TSFMs have learned to activate task-relevant network substructures to accommodate diverse forecasting tasks. To preserve this valuable prior knowledge, we propose a structured pruning method to regularize the subsequent fine-tuning process by focusing it on a more relevant and compact parameter space. Extensive experiments on seven TSFMs and six benchmarks demonstrate that fine-tuning a smaller, pruned TSFM significantly improves forecasting performance compared to fine-tuning original models. This prune-then-finetune paradigm often enables TSFMs to achieve state-of-the-art performance and surpass strong specialized baselines. Source code is made publicly available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/Prune-then-Finetune.

YiFan Zhang, Yang Shi, Weichen Yu et al. · pku

In the realms of computer vision and natural language processing, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have become indispensable tools, proficient in generating textual responses based on visual inputs. Despite their advancements, our investigation reveals a noteworthy bias: the generated content is often driven more by the inherent priors of the underlying Large Language Models (LLMs) than by the input image. Empirical experiments underscore the persistence of this bias, as MLLMs often provide confident answers even in the absence of relevant images or given incongruent visual inputs. To rectify these biases and redirect the model's focus toward visual information, we propose two simple, training-free strategies. First, for tasks such as classification or multi-choice question answering, we introduce a "Post-Hoc Debias" method using an affine calibration step to adjust the output distribution. This approach ensures uniform answer scores when the image is absent, acting as an effective regularization technique to alleviate the influence of LLM priors. For more intricate open-ended generation tasks, we extend this method to "Visual Debias Decoding", which mitigates bias by contrasting token log-probabilities conditioned on a correct image versus a meaningless one. Additionally, our investigation sheds light on the instability of MLLMs across various decoding configurations. Through systematic exploration of different settings, we achieve significant performance improvements--surpassing previously reported results--and raise concerns about the fairness of current evaluation practices. Comprehensive experiments substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed strategies in mitigating biases. These strategies not only prove beneficial in minimizing hallucinations but also contribute to the generation of more helpful and precise illustrations.

YiFan Zhang, Weiqi Chen, Zhaoyang Zhu et al.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to tackle the challenge of concept drifting by adjusting forecasting models based on streaming data. While numerous algorithms have been developed, most of them focus on model design and updating. In practice, many of these methods struggle with continuous performance regression in the face of accumulated concept drifts over time. To address this limitation, we present a novel approach, Concept \textbf{D}rift \textbf{D}etection an\textbf{D} \textbf{A}daptation (D3A), that first detects drifting conception and then aggressively adapts the current model to the drifted concepts after the detection for rapid adaption. To best harness the utility of historical data for model adaptation, we propose a data augmentation strategy introducing Gaussian noise into existing training instances. It helps mitigate the data distribution gap, a critical factor contributing to train-test performance inconsistency. The significance of our data augmentation process is verified by our theoretical analysis. Our empirical studies across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of D3A in improving model adaptation capability. Notably, compared to a simple Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) baseline, D3A reduces the average Mean Squared Error (MSE) by $43.9\%$. For the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, the MSE is reduced by $33.3\%$.