Pascal Tribel

Alejandro Morales-Hernández, Fabrizio De Caroa, Gian Marco Paldino et al.

Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs). These early warnings enable the timely initiation of more detailed system stability assessments and preventive actions. However, forecasting these events is challenging due to the inherent class imbalance in WPRE datasets, where ramp events are less frequent (typically less than 15\% of observed events) compared to normal conditions. Ignoring this characteristic undermines the performance of conventional machine learning models, which often favor the majority class. This paper introduces a novel methodology for WPRE forecasting as a multivariate time series classification task and proposes a data preprocessing strategy that extracts features from recent power observations and masks unavailable ramp information, making it integrable with traditional real-time ramp identification tools. Particularly, the proposed methodology combines majority-class undersampling and ensemble learning to enhance wind ramp event forecasting under class imbalance. Numerical simulations conducted on a real-world dataset demonstrate the superiority of our approach, achieving over 85% accuracy and 88% weighted F1 score, outperforming benchmark classifiers.

Pascal Tribel, Gianluca Bontempi

Seismic data is often sparse and unevenly distributed due to the high costs and logistical challenges associated with deploying physical seismometers, limiting the application of Machine Learning (ML) in earthquake analysis. While simulation methods exist, no tool allows the generation of large datasets containing simulated measurements of the ground motion. To address this gap, we introduce PyAWD, a Python library designed to generate high-resolution synthetic datasets simulating spatio-temporal acoustic wave propagation in both two-dimensional and three-dimensional heterogeneous media. By allowing fine control over parameters such as the wave speed, external forces, spatial and temporal discretization, and media composition, PyAWD enables the creation of ML-scale datasets that capture the complexity of seismic wave behavior. We illustrate the library's potential with an epicenter retrieval task, showcasing its suitability for designing complex, accurate seismic problems that require advanced ML approaches in the absence or lack of dense real-world data. We also show the usefulness of our tool to tackle the problem of data budgeting in the framework of epicenter retrieval.