Xiaoqing Yang

Ruichu Cai, Weilin Chen, Zeqin Yang et al.

Estimating long-term causal effects based on short-term surrogates is a significant but challenging problem in many real-world applications, e.g., marketing and medicine. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods estimate causal effects in an idealistic and simplistic way - ignoring the causal structure among short-term outcomes and treating all of them as surrogates. However, such methods cannot be well applied to real-world scenarios, in which the partially observed surrogates are mixed with their proxies among short-term outcomes. To this end, we develop our flexible method, Laser, to estimate long-term causal effects in the more realistic situation that the surrogates are observed or have observed proxies.Given the indistinguishability between the surrogates and proxies, we utilize identifiable variational auto-encoder (iVAE) to recover the whole valid surrogates on all the surrogates candidates without the need of distinguishing the observed surrogates or the proxies of latent surrogates. With the help of the recovered surrogates, we further devise an unbiased estimation of long-term causal effects. Extensive experimental results on the real-world and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Shu Wan, Chen Zheng, Zhonggen Sun et al.

Uplift modeling is a rapidly growing approach that utilizes causal inference and machine learning methods to directly estimate the heterogeneous treatment effects, which has been widely applied to various online marketplaces to assist large-scale decision-making in recent years. The existing popular models, like causal forest (CF), are limited to either discrete treatments or posing parametric assumptions on the outcome-treatment relationship that may suffer model misspecification. However, continuous treatments (e.g., price, duration) often arise in marketplaces. To alleviate these restrictions, we use a kernel-based doubly robust estimator to recover the non-parametric dose-response functions that can flexibly model continuous treatment effects. Moreover, we propose a generic distance-based splitting criterion to capture the heterogeneity for the continuous treatments. We call the proposed algorithm generalized causal forest (GCF) as it generalizes the use case of CF to a much broader setting. We show the effectiveness of GCF by deriving the asymptotic property of the estimator and comparing it to popular uplift modeling methods on both synthetic and real-world datasets. We implement GCF on Spark and successfully deploy it into a large-scale online pricing system at a leading ride-sharing company. Online A/B testing results further validate the superiority of GCF.

Xiaoqing Yang, Fei Li

The four-wheeled Mecanum robot is widely used in various industries due to its maneuverability and strong load capacity, which is suitable for performing precise transportation tasks in a narrow environment, but while the Mecanum wheel robot has mobility, it also consumes more energy than ordinary robots. The power consumed by the Mecanum wheel mobile robot varies enormously depending on their operating regimes and environments. Therefore, only knowing the working environment of the robot and the accurate power consumption model can we accurately predict the power consumption of the robot. In order to increase the appli-cable scenarios of energy consumption modeling for Mecanum wheel robots and improve the accuracy of energy consumption modeling, this paper focuses on various factors that affect the energy consumption of the Mecanum wheel robot, such as motor temperature, terrain, the center of gravity position, etc. The model is derived from the kinematic and kinetic model combined with electrical engineering and energy flow principles. The model has been simulated in MATLAB and experimentally validated with the four-wheeled Mecanum robot platform in our lab. Experimental results show that the model is 90% accurate. The results of energy consumption modeling can help robots to save energy by helping them to perform rational path planning and task planning.