Zhiyong Cui

Xuan Cai, Zhiyong Cui, Xuesong Bai et al.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) face significant threats to their safe operation in complex traffic environments. Adversarial training has emerged as an effective method of enabling AVs to preemptively fortify their robustness against malicious attacks. Train an attacker using an adversarial policy, allowing the AV to learn robust driving through interaction with this attacker. However, adversarial policies in existing methodologies often get stuck in a loop of overexploiting established vulnerabilities, resulting in poor improvement for AVs. To overcome the limitations, we introduce a pioneering framework termed Vulnerability-aware and Curiosity-driven Adversarial Training (VCAT). Specifically, during the traffic vehicle attacker training phase, a surrogate network is employed to fit the value function of the AV victim, providing dense information about the victim's inherent vulnerabilities. Subsequently, random network distillation is used to characterize the novelty of the environment, constructing an intrinsic reward to guide the attacker in exploring unexplored territories. In the victim defense training phase, the AV is trained in critical scenarios in which the pretrained attacker is positioned around the victim to generate attack behaviors. Experimental results revealed that the training methodology provided by VCAT significantly improved the robust control capabilities of learning-based AVs, outperforming both conventional training modalities and alternative reinforcement learning counterparts, with a marked reduction in crash rates. The code is available at https://github.com/caixxuan/VCAT.

Kemou Jiang, Xuan Cai, Zhiyong Cui et al.

Large language models (LLMs) as autonomous agents offer a novel avenue for tackling real-world challenges through a knowledge-driven manner. These LLM-enhanced methodologies excel in generalization and interpretability. However, the complexity of driving tasks often necessitates the collaboration of multiple, heterogeneous agents, underscoring the need for such LLM-driven agents to engage in cooperative knowledge sharing and cognitive synergy. Despite the promise of LLMs, current applications predominantly center around single agent scenarios. To broaden the horizons of knowledge-driven strategies and bolster the generalization capabilities of autonomous agents, we propose the KoMA framework consisting of multi-agent interaction, multi-step planning, shared-memory, and ranking-based reflection modules to enhance multi-agents' decision-making in complex driving scenarios. Based on the framework's generated text descriptions of driving scenarios, the multi-agent interaction module enables LLM agents to analyze and infer the intentions of surrounding vehicles, akin to human cognition. The multi-step planning module enables LLM agents to analyze and obtain final action decisions layer by layer to ensure consistent goals for short-term action decisions. The shared memory module can accumulate collective experience to make superior decisions, and the ranking-based reflection module can evaluate and improve agent behavior with the aim of enhancing driving safety and efficiency. The KoMA framework not only enhances the robustness and adaptability of autonomous driving agents but also significantly elevates their generalization capabilities across diverse scenarios. Empirical results demonstrate the superiority of our approach over traditional methods, particularly in its ability to handle complex, unpredictable driving environments without extensive retraining.

Yonglin Tian, Qiyao Zhang, Wei Xu et al.

Accurate and early perception of potential intrusion targets is essential for ensuring the safety of railway transportation systems. However, most existing systems focus narrowly on object classification within fixed visual scopes and apply rule-based heuristics to determine intrusion status, often overlooking targets that pose latent intrusion risks. Anticipating such risks requires the cognition of spatial context and temporal dynamics for the object of interest (OOI), which presents challenges for conventional visual models. To facilitate deep intrusion perception, we introduce a novel benchmark, CogRail, which integrates curated open-source datasets with cognitively driven question-answer annotations to support spatio-temporal reasoning and prediction. Building upon this benchmark, we conduct a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art visual-language models (VLMs) using multimodal prompts to identify their strengths and limitations in this domain. Furthermore, we fine-tune VLMs for better performance and propose a joint fine-tuning framework that integrates three core tasks, position perception, movement prediction, and threat analysis, facilitating effective adaptation of general-purpose foundation models into specialized models tailored for cognitive intrusion perception. Extensive experiments reveal that current large-scale multimodal models struggle with the complex spatial-temporal reasoning required by the cognitive intrusion perception task, underscoring the limitations of existing foundation models in this safety-critical domain. In contrast, our proposed joint fine-tuning framework significantly enhances model performance by enabling targeted adaptation to domain-specific reasoning demands, highlighting the advantages of structured multi-task learning in improving both accuracy and interpretability. Code will be available at https://github.com/Hub-Tian/CogRail.

Haicheng Liao, Yongkang Li, Chengyue Wang et al.

The primary goal of traffic accident anticipation is to foresee potential accidents in real time using dashcam videos, a task that is pivotal for enhancing the safety and reliability of autonomous driving technologies. In this study, we introduce an innovative framework, AccNet, which significantly advances the prediction capabilities beyond the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) 2D-based methods by incorporating monocular depth cues for sophisticated 3D scene modeling. Addressing the prevalent challenge of skewed data distribution in traffic accident datasets, we propose the Binary Adaptive Loss for Early Anticipation (BA-LEA). This novel loss function, together with a multi-task learning strategy, shifts the focus of the predictive model towards the critical moments preceding an accident. {We rigorously evaluate the performance of our framework on three benchmark datasets--Dashcam Accident Dataset (DAD), Car Crash Dataset (CCD), and AnAn Accident Detection (A3D), and DADA-2000 Dataset--demonstrating its superior predictive accuracy through key metrics such as Average Precision (AP) and mean Time-To-Accident (mTTA).

Meng-Ju Tsai, Zhiyong Cui, Hao Yang et al.

With accurate and timely traffic forecasting, the impacted traffic conditions can be predicted in advance to guide agencies and residents to respond to changes in traffic patterns appropriately. However, existing works on traffic forecasting mainly relied on historical traffic patterns confining to short-term prediction, under 1 hour, for instance. To better manage future roadway capacity and accommodate social and human impacts, it is crucial to propose a flexible and comprehensive framework to predict physical-aware long-term traffic conditions for public users and transportation agencies. In this paper, the gap of robust long-term traffic forecasting was bridged by taking social media features into consideration. A correlation study and a linear regression model were first implemented to evaluate the significance of the correlation between two time-series data, traffic intensity and Twitter data intensity. Two time-series data were then fed into our proposed social-aware framework, Traffic-Twitter Transformer, which integrated Nature Language representations into time-series records for long-term traffic prediction. Experimental results in the Great Seattle Area showed that our proposed model outperformed baseline models in all evaluation matrices. This NLP-joined social-aware framework can become a valuable implement of network-wide traffic prediction and management for traffic agencies.

Ruikai Li, Xinrun Li, Mengwei Xie et al.

Online High-Definition (HD) map construction is pivotal for autonomous driving. While recent approaches leverage historical temporal fusion to improve performance, we identify a critical safety flaw in this paradigm: it is inherently ``spatially backward-looking." These methods predominantly enhance map reconstruction in traversed areas, offering minimal improvement for the unseen road ahead. Crucially, our analysis of downstream planning tasks reveals a severe asymmetry: while rearward perception errors are often tolerable, inaccuracies in the forward region directly precipitate hazardous driving maneuvers. To bridge this safety gap, we propose AMap, a novel framework for Ahead-aware online HD Mapping. We pioneer a ``distill-from-future" paradigm, where a teacher model with privileged access to future temporal contexts guides a lightweight student model restricted to the current frame. This process implicitly compresses prospective knowledge into the student model, endowing it with ``look-ahead" capabilities at zero inference-time cost. Technically, we introduce a Multi-Level BEV Distillation strategy with spatial masking and an Asymmetric Query Adaptation module to effectively transfer future-aware representations to the student's static queries. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes and Argoverse 2 benchmark demonstrate that AMap significantly enhances current-frame perception. Most notably, it outperforms state-of-the-art temporal models in critical forward regions while maintaining the efficiency of single current frame inference.

Lening Wang, Wenzhao Zheng, Dalong Du et al.

4D driving simulation is essential for developing realistic autonomous driving simulators. Despite advancements in existing methods for generating driving scenes, significant challenges remain in view transformation and spatial-temporal dynamic modeling. To address these limitations, we propose a Spatial-Temporal simulAtion for drivinG (Stag-1) model to reconstruct real-world scenes and design a controllable generative network to achieve 4D simulation. Stag-1 constructs continuous 4D point cloud scenes using surround-view data from autonomous vehicles. It decouples spatial-temporal relationships and produces coherent keyframe videos. Additionally, Stag-1 leverages video generation models to obtain photo-realistic and controllable 4D driving simulation videos from any perspective. To expand the range of view generation, we train vehicle motion videos based on decomposed camera poses, enhancing modeling capabilities for distant scenes. Furthermore, we reconstruct vehicle camera trajectories to integrate 3D points across consecutive views, enabling comprehensive scene understanding along the temporal dimension. Following extensive multi-level scene training, Stag-1 can simulate from any desired viewpoint and achieve a deep understanding of scene evolution under static spatial-temporal conditions. Compared to existing methods, our approach shows promising performance in multi-view scene consistency, background coherence, and accuracy, and contributes to the ongoing advancements in realistic autonomous driving simulation. Code: https://github.com/wzzheng/Stag.

Yang Li, Zongzheng Zhang, Xuchong Qiu et al. · tsinghua

Understanding lane toplogy relationships accurately is critical for safe autonomous driving. However, existing two-stage methods suffer from inefficiencies due to error propagations and increased computational overheads. To address these challenges, we propose a one-stage architecture that simultaneously predicts traffic elements, lane centerlines and topology relationship, improving both the accuracy and inference speed of lane topology understanding for autonomous driving. Our key innovation lies in reusing intermediate attention resources within distinct transformer decoders. This approach effectively leverages the inherent relational knowledge within the element detection module to enable the modeling of topology relationships among traffic elements and lanes without requiring additional computationally expensive graph networks. Furthermore, we are the first to demonstrate that knowledge can be distilled from models that utilize standard definition (SD) maps to those operates without using SD maps, enabling superior performance even in the absence of SD maps. Extensive experiments on the OpenLane-V2 dataset show that our approach outperforms baseline methods in both accuracy and efficiency, achieving superior results in lane detection, traffic element identification, and topology reasoning. Our code is available at https://github.com/Yang-Li-2000/one-stage.git.

Qiyao Zhang, Shuhua Zheng, Jianli Sun et al.

Embodied visual tracking is crucial for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) executing complex real-world tasks. In dynamic urban scenarios with complex semantic requirements, Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models show great promise due to their cross-modal fusion and continuous action generation capabilities. To benchmark multimodal tracking in such environments, we construct a dedicated evaluation benchmark and a large-scale dataset encompassing over 890K frames, 176 tasks, and 85 diverse objects. Furthermore, to address temporal feature redundancy and the lack of spatial geometric priors in existing VLA models, we propose an improved VLA tracking model, UAV-Track VLA. Built upon the $π_{0.5}$ architecture, our model introduces a temporal compression net to efficiently capture inter-frame dynamics. Additionally, a parallel dual-branch decoder comprising a spatial-aware auxiliary grounding head and a flow matching action expert is designed to decouple cross-modal features and generate fine-grained continuous actions. Systematic experiments in the CARLA simulator validate the superior end-to-end performance of our method. Notably, in challenging long-distance pedestrian tracking tasks, UAV-Track VLA achieves a 61.76\% success rate and 269.65 average tracking frames, significantly outperforming existing baselines. Furthermore, it demonstrates robust zero-shot generalization in unseen environments and reduces single-step inference latency by 33.4\% (to 0.0571s) compared to the original $π_{0.5}$, enabling highly efficient, real-time UAV control. Data samples and demonstration videos are available at: https://github.com/Hub-Tian/UAV-Track\_VLA.

Ziyang Yan, Ruikai Li, Zhiyong Cui et al.

Online HD map construction is a fundamental task in autonomous driving systems, aiming to acquire semantic information of map elements around the ego vehicle based on real-time sensor inputs. Recently, several approaches have achieved promising results by incorporating offline priors such as SD maps and HD maps or by fusing multi-modal data. However, these methods depend on stale offline maps and multi-modal sensor suites, resulting in avoidable computational overhead at inference. To address these limitations, we employ a knowledge distillation strategy to transfer knowledge from multimodal models with prior knowledge to an efficient, low-cost, and vision-centric student model. Specifically, we propose MapKD, a novel multi-level cross-modal knowledge distillation framework with an innovative Teacher-Coach-Student (TCS) paradigm. This framework consists of: (1) a camera-LiDAR fusion model with SD/HD map priors serving as the teacher; (2) a vision-centric coach model with prior knowledge and simulated LiDAR to bridge the cross-modal knowledge transfer gap; and (3) a lightweight vision-based student model. Additionally, we introduce two targeted knowledge distillation strategies: Token-Guided 2D Patch Distillation (TGPD) for bird's eye view feature alignment and Masked Semantic Response Distillation (MSRD) for semantic learning guidance. Extensive experiments on the challenging nuScenes dataset demonstrate that MapKD improves the student model by +6.68 mIoU and +10.94 mAP while simultaneously accelerating inference speed. The code is available at:https://github.com/2004yan/MapKD2026.

Maonan Wang, Yirong Chen, Yuxin Cai et al.

Air-ground collaborative intelligence is becoming a key approach for next-generation urban intelligent transportation management, where aerial and ground systems work together on perception, communication, and decision-making. However, the lack of a unified multi-modal simulation environment has limited progress in studying cross-domain perception, coordination under communication constraints, and joint decision optimization. To address this gap, we present TranSimHub, a unified simulation platform for air-ground collaborative intelligence. TranSimHub offers synchronized multi-view rendering across RGB, depth, and semantic segmentation modalities, ensuring consistent perception between aerial and ground viewpoints. It also supports information exchange between the two domains and includes a causal scene editor that enables controllable scenario creation and counterfactual analysis under diverse conditions such as different weather, emergency events, and dynamic obstacles. We release TranSimHub as an open-source platform that supports end-to-end research on perception, fusion, and control across realistic air and ground traffic scenes. Our code is available at https://github.com/Traffic-Alpha/TranSimHub.

Haicheng Liao, Yongkang Li, Zhenning Li et al.

In autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, the ability to accurately predict the movements of surrounding vehicles is paramount for ensuring safety and operational efficiency. Incorporating human decision-making insights enables AVs to more effectively anticipate the potential actions of other vehicles, significantly improving prediction accuracy and responsiveness in dynamic environments. This paper introduces the Human-Like Trajectory Prediction (HLTP) model, which adopts a teacher-student knowledge distillation framework inspired by human cognitive processes. The HLTP model incorporates a sophisticated teacher-student knowledge distillation framework. The "teacher" model, equipped with an adaptive visual sector, mimics the visual processing of the human brain, particularly the functions of the occipital and temporal lobes. The "student" model focuses on real-time interaction and decision-making, drawing parallels to prefrontal and parietal cortex functions. This approach allows for dynamic adaptation to changing driving scenarios, capturing essential perceptual cues for accurate prediction. Evaluated using the Macao Connected and Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) dataset, along with the NGSIM and HighD benchmarks, HLTP demonstrates superior performance compared to existing models, particularly in challenging environments with incomplete data. The project page is available at Github.

Yilong Ren, Yue Chen, Shuai Liu et al.

Traffic prediction constitutes a pivotal facet within the purview of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), and the attainment of highly precise predictions holds profound significance for efficacious traffic management. The precision of prevailing deep learning-driven traffic prediction models typically sees an upward trend with a rise in the volume of training data. However, the procurement of comprehensive spatiotemporal datasets for traffic is often fraught with challenges, primarily stemming from the substantial costs associated with data collection and retention. Consequently, developing a model that can achieve accurate predictions and good generalization ability in areas with limited historical traffic data is a challenging problem. It is noteworthy that the rapidly advancing pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs) of recent years have demonstrated exceptional proficiency in cross-modality knowledge transfer and few-shot learning. Recognizing the sequential nature of traffic data, similar to language, we introduce TPLLM, a novel traffic prediction framework leveraging LLMs. In this framework, we construct a sequence embedding layer based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and a graph embedding layer based on Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) to extract sequence features and spatial features, respectively. These are subsequently integrated to form inputs that are suitable for LLMs. A Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) fine-tuning approach is applied to TPLLM, thereby facilitating efficient learning and minimizing computational demands. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that TPLLM exhibits commendable performance in both full-sample and few-shot prediction scenarios, effectively supporting the development of ITS in regions with scarce historical traffic data.

Lening Wang, Yilong Ren, Han Jiang et al.

Traffic accidents, being a significant contributor to both human casualties and property damage, have long been a focal point of research for many scholars in the field of traffic safety. However, previous studies, whether focusing on static environmental assessments or dynamic driving analyses, as well as pre-accident predictions or post-accident rule analyses, have typically been conducted in isolation. There has been a lack of an effective framework for developing a comprehensive understanding and application of traffic safety. To address this gap, this paper introduces AccidentGPT, a comprehensive accident analysis and prevention multi-modal large model. AccidentGPT establishes a multi-modal information interaction framework grounded in multi-sensor perception, thereby enabling a holistic approach to accident analysis and prevention in the field of traffic safety. Specifically, our capabilities can be categorized as follows: for autonomous driving vehicles, we provide comprehensive environmental perception and understanding to control the vehicle and avoid collisions. For human-driven vehicles, we offer proactive long-range safety warnings and blind-spot alerts while also providing safety driving recommendations and behavioral norms through human-machine dialogue and interaction. Additionally, for traffic police and management agencies, our framework supports intelligent and real-time analysis of traffic safety, encompassing pedestrian, vehicles, roads, and the environment through collaborative perception from multiple vehicles and road testing devices. The system is also capable of providing a thorough analysis of accident causes and liability after vehicle collisions. Our framework stands as the first large model to integrate comprehensive scene understanding into traffic safety studies. Project page: https://accidentgpt.github.io

Shuang Li, Ziyuan Pu, Zhiyong Cui et al.

Highway traffic crashes exert a considerable impact on both transportation systems and the economy. In this context, accurate and dependable emergency responses are crucial for effective traffic management. However, the influence of crashes on traffic status varies across diverse factors and may be biased due to selection bias. Therefore, there arises a necessity to accurately estimate the heterogeneous causal effects of crashes, thereby providing essential insights to facilitate individual-level emergency decision-making. This paper proposes a novel causal machine learning framework to estimate the causal effect of different types of crashes on highway speed. The Neyman-Rubin Causal Model (RCM) is employed to formulate this problem from a causal perspective. The Conditional Shapley Value Index (CSVI) is proposed based on causal graph theory to filter adverse variables, and the Structural Causal Model (SCM) is then adopted to define the statistical estimand for causal effects. The treatment effects are estimated by Doubly Robust Learning (DRL) methods, which combine doubly robust causal inference with classification and regression machine learning models. Experimental results from 4815 crashes on Highway Interstate 5 in Washington State reveal the heterogeneous treatment effects of crashes at varying distances and durations. The rear-end crashes cause more severe congestion and longer durations than other types of crashes, and the sideswipe crashes have the longest delayed impact. Additionally, the findings show that rear-end crashes affect traffic greater at night, while crash to objects has the most significant influence during peak hours. Statistical hypothesis tests, error metrics based on matched "counterfactual outcomes", and sensitive analyses are employed for assessment, and the results validate the accuracy and effectiveness of our method.

Chengyue Wang, Haicheng Liao, Bonan Wang et al.

Accurate trajectory prediction is essential for the safety and efficiency of autonomous driving. Traditional models often struggle with real-time processing, capturing non-linearity and uncertainty in traffic environments, efficiency in dense traffic, and modeling temporal dynamics of interactions. We introduce NEST (Neuromodulated Small-world Hypergraph Trajectory Prediction), a novel framework that integrates Small-world Networks and hypergraphs for superior interaction modeling and prediction accuracy. This integration enables the capture of both local and extended vehicle interactions, while the Neuromodulator component adapts dynamically to changing traffic conditions. We validate the NEST model on several real-world datasets, including nuScenes, MoCAD, and HighD. The results consistently demonstrate that NEST outperforms existing methods in various traffic scenarios, showcasing its exceptional generalization capability, efficiency, and temporal foresight. Our comprehensive evaluation illustrates that NEST significantly improves the reliability and operational efficiency of autonomous driving systems, making it a robust solution for trajectory prediction in complex traffic environments.

Xuan Cai, Xuesong Bai, Zhiyong Cui et al.

Autonomous driving (AD) testing constitutes a critical methodology for assessing performance benchmarks prior to product deployment. The creation of segmented scenarios within a simulated environment is acknowledged as a robust and effective strategy; however, the process of tailoring these scenarios often necessitates laborious and time-consuming manual efforts, thereby hindering the development and implementation of AD technologies. In response to this challenge, we introduce Text2Scenario, a framework that leverages a Large Language Model (LLM) to autonomously generate simulation test scenarios that closely align with user specifications, derived from their natural language inputs. Specifically, an LLM, equipped with a meticulously engineered input prompt scheme functions as a text parser for test scenario descriptions, extracting from a hierarchically organized scenario repository the components that most accurately reflect the user's preferences. Subsequently, by exploiting the precedence of scenario components, the process involves sequentially matching and linking scenario representations within a Domain Specific Language corpus, ultimately fabricating executable test scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that such prompt engineering can meticulously extract the nuanced details of scenario elements embedded within various descriptive formats, with the majority of generated scenarios aligning closely with the user's initial expectations, allowing for the efficient and precise evaluation of diverse AD stacks void of the labor-intensive need for manual scenario configuration. Project page: https://caixxuan.github.io/Text2Scenario.GitHub.io.

Tongtong Zhang, Zhiyong Cui, Bingzhang Wang et al.

In urban computing, precise and swift forecasting of multivariate time series data from traffic networks is crucial. This data incorporates additional spatial contexts such as sensor placements and road network layouts, and exhibits complex temporal patterns that amplify challenges for predictive learning in traffic management, smart mobility demand, and urban planning. Consequently, there is an increasing need to forecast traffic flow across broader geographic regions and for higher temporal coverage. However, current research encounters limitations because of the inherent inefficiency of model and their unsuitability for large-scale traffic network applications due to model complexity. This paper proposes a novel framework, named PreMixer, designed to bridge this gap. It features a predictive model and a pre-training mechanism, both based on the principles of Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP). The PreMixer comprehensively consider temporal dependencies of traffic patterns in different time windows and processes the spatial dynamics as well. Additionally, we integrate spatio-temporal positional encoding to manage spatiotemporal heterogeneity without relying on predefined graphs. Furthermore, our innovative pre-training model uses a simple patch-wise MLP to conduct masked time series modeling, learning from long-term historical data segmented into patches to generate enriched contextual representations. This approach enhances the downstream forecasting model without incurring significant time consumption or computational resource demands owing to improved learning efficiency and data handling flexibility. Our framework achieves comparable state-of-the-art performance while maintaining high computational efficiency, as verified by extensive experiments on large-scale traffic datasets.

Hao Shan, Ruikai Li, Han Jiang et al.

As one of the fundamental modules in autonomous driving, online high-definition (HD) maps have attracted significant attention due to their cost-effectiveness and real-time capabilities. Since vehicles always cruise in highly dynamic environments, spatial displacement of onboard sensors inevitably causes shifts in real-time HD mapping results, and such instability poses fundamental challenges for downstream tasks. However, existing online map construction models tend to prioritize improving each frame's mapping accuracy, while the mapping stability has not yet been systematically studied. To fill this gap, this paper presents the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the temporal stability of online HD mapping models. We propose a multi-dimensional stability evaluation framework with novel metrics for Presence, Localization, and Shape Stability, integrated into a unified mean Average Stability (mAS) score. Extensive experiments on 42 models and variants show that accuracy (mAP) and stability (mAS) represent largely independent performance dimensions. We further analyze the impact of key model design choices on both criteria, identifying architectural and training factors that contribute to high accuracy, high stability, or both. To encourage broader focus on stability, we will release a public benchmark. Our work highlights the importance of treating temporal stability as a core evaluation criterion alongside accuracy, advancing the development of more reliable autonomous driving systems. The benchmark toolkit, code, and models will be available at https://stablehdmap.github.io/.

Bin Hu, Zijian Lu, Haicheng Liao et al.

Motion planning for autonomous driving must handle multiple plausible futures while remaining computationally efficient. Recent end-to-end systems and world-model-based planners predict rich multi-modal trajectories, but typically rely on handcrafted anchors or reinforcement learning to select a single best mode for training and control. This selection discards information about alternative futures and complicates optimization. We propose MAP-World, a prior-free multi-modal planning framework that couples masked action planning with a path-weighted world model. The Masked Action Planning (MAP) module treats future ego motion as masked sequence completion: past waypoints are encoded as visible tokens, future waypoints are represented as mask tokens, and a driving-intent path provides a coarse scaffold. A compact latent planning state is expanded into multiple trajectory queries with injected noise, yielding diverse, temporally consistent modes without anchor libraries or teacher policies. A lightweight world model then rolls out future BEV semantics conditioned on each candidate trajectory. During training, semantic losses are computed as an expectation over modes, using trajectory probabilities as discrete path weights, so the planner learns from the full distribution of plausible futures instead of a single selected path. On NAVSIM, our method matches anchor-based approaches and achieves state-of-the-art performance among world-model-based methods, while avoiding reinforcement learning and maintaining real-time inference latency.

Haicheng Liao, Yongkang Li, Zhenning Li et al.

Accurately and safely predicting the trajectories of surrounding vehicles is essential for fully realizing autonomous driving (AD). This paper presents the Human-Like Trajectory Prediction model (HLTP++), which emulates human cognitive processes to improve trajectory prediction in AD. HLTP++ incorporates a novel teacher-student knowledge distillation framework. The "teacher" model equipped with an adaptive visual sector, mimics the dynamic allocation of attention human drivers exhibit based on factors like spatial orientation, proximity, and driving speed. On the other hand, the "student" model focuses on real-time interaction and human decision-making, drawing parallels to the human memory storage mechanism. Furthermore, we improve the model's efficiency by introducing a new Fourier Adaptive Spike Neural Network (FA-SNN), allowing for faster and more precise predictions with fewer parameters. Evaluated using the NGSIM, HighD, and MoCAD benchmarks, HLTP++ demonstrates superior performance compared to existing models, which reduces the predicted trajectory error with over 11% on the NGSIM dataset and 25% on the HighD datasets. Moreover, HLTP++ demonstrates strong adaptability in challenging environments with incomplete input data. This marks a significant stride in the journey towards fully AD systems.

Zhengxing Lan, Hongbo Li, Lingshan Liu et al.

Predicting the future trajectories of dynamic traffic actors is a cornerstone task in autonomous driving. Though existing notable efforts have resulted in impressive performance improvements, a gap persists in scene cognitive and understanding of the complex traffic semantics. This paper proposes Traj-LLM, the first to investigate the potential of using Large Language Models (LLMs) without explicit prompt engineering to generate future motion from agents' past/observed trajectories and scene semantics. Traj-LLM starts with sparse context joint coding to dissect the agent and scene features into a form that LLMs understand. On this basis, we innovatively explore LLMs' powerful comprehension abilities to capture a spectrum of high-level scene knowledge and interactive information. Emulating the human-like lane focus cognitive function and enhancing Traj-LLM's scene comprehension, we introduce lane-aware probabilistic learning powered by the pioneering Mamba module. Finally, a multi-modal Laplace decoder is designed to achieve scene-compliant multi-modal predictions. Extensive experiments manifest that Traj-LLM, fortified by LLMs' strong prior knowledge and understanding prowess, together with lane-aware probability learning, outstrips state-of-the-art methods across evaluation metrics. Moreover, the few-shot analysis further substantiates Traj-LLM's performance, wherein with just 50% of the dataset, it outperforms the majority of benchmarks relying on complete data utilization. This study explores equipping the trajectory prediction task with advanced capabilities inherent in LLMs, furnishing a more universal and adaptable solution for forecasting agent motion in a new way.

Ruimin Ke, Zhiyong Cui, Yanlong Chen et al.

Traffic near-crash events serve as critical data sources for various smart transportation applications, such as being surrogate safety measures for traffic safety research and corner case data for automated vehicle testing. However, there are several key challenges for near-crash detection. First, extracting near-crashes from original data sources requires significant computing, communication, and storage resources. Also, existing methods lack efficiency and transferability, which bottlenecks prospective large-scale applications. To this end, this paper leverages the power of edge computing to address these challenges by processing the video streams from existing dashcams onboard in a real-time manner. We design a multi-thread system architecture that operates on edge devices and model the bounding boxes generated by object detection and tracking in linear complexity. The method is insensitive to camera parameters and backward compatible with different vehicles. The edge computing system has been evaluated with recorded videos and real-world tests on two cars and four buses for over ten thousand hours. It filters out irrelevant videos in real-time thereby saving labor cost, processing time, network bandwidth, and data storage. It collects not only event videos but also other valuable data such as road user type, event location, time to collision, vehicle trajectory, vehicle speed, brake switch, and throttle. The experiments demonstrate the promising performance of the system regarding efficiency, accuracy, reliability, and transferability. It is among the first efforts in applying edge computing for real-time traffic video analytics and is expected to benefit multiple sub-fields in smart transportation research and applications.

Zhiyong Cui, Ruimin Ke, Ziyuan Pu et al.

Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially recurrent neural networks (RNN), has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of RNN-based models in traffic forecasting has not yet been fully exploited in terms of the predictive power of spatial-temporal data and the capability of handling missing data. In this paper, we focus on RNN-based models and attempt to reformulate the way to incorporate RNN and its variants into traffic prediction models. A stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM network architecture (SBU-LSTM) is proposed to assist the design of neural network structures for traffic state forecasting. As a key component of the architecture, the bidirectional LSTM (BDLSM) is exploited to capture the forward and backward temporal dependencies in spatiotemporal data. To deal with missing values in spatial-temporal data, we also propose a data imputation mechanism in the LSTM structure (LSTM-I) by designing an imputation unit to infer missing values and assist traffic prediction. The bidirectional version of LSTM-I is incorporated in the SBU-LSTM architecture. Two real-world network-wide traffic state datasets are used to conduct experiments and published to facilitate further traffic prediction research. The prediction performance of multiple types of multi-layer LSTM or BDLSTM models is evaluated. Experimental results indicate that the proposed SBU-LSTM architecture, especially the two-layer BDLSTM network, can achieve superior performance for the network-wide traffic prediction in both accuracy and robustness. Further, comprehensive comparison results show that the proposed data imputation mechanism in the RNN-based models can achieve outstanding prediction performance when the model's input data contains different patterns of missing values.

Zhiyong Cui, Longfei Lin, Ziyuan Pu et al.

Traffic forecasting is a classical task for traffic management and it plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems. However, since traffic data are mostly collected by traffic sensors or probe vehicles, sensor failures and the lack of probe vehicles will inevitably result in missing values in the collected raw data for some specific links in the traffic network. Although missing values can be imputed, existing data imputation methods normally need long-term historical traffic state data. As for short-term traffic forecasting, especially under edge computing and online prediction scenarios, traffic forecasting models with the capability of handling missing values are needed. In this study, we consider the traffic network as a graph and define the transition between network-wide traffic states at consecutive time steps as a graph Markov process. In this way, missing traffic states can be inferred step by step and the spatial-temporal relationships among the roadway links can be Incorporated. Based on the graph Markov process, we propose a new neural network architecture for spatial-temporal data forecasting, i.e. the graph Markov network (GMN). By incorporating the spectral graph convolution operation, we also propose a spectral graph Markov network (SGMN). The proposed models are compared with baseline models and tested on three real-world traffic state datasets with various missing rates. Experimental results show that the proposed GMN and SGMN can achieve superior prediction performance in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the proposed models' parameters, weights, and predicted results are comprehensively analyzed and visualized.

Ziyuan Pu, Zhiyong Cui, Shuo Wang et al.

An accurate road surface friction prediction algorithm can enable intelligent transportation systems to share timely road surface condition to the public for increasing the safety of the road users. Previously, scholars developed multiple prediction models for forecasting road surface conditions using historical data. However, road surface condition data cannot be perfectly collected at every timestamp, e.g. the data collected by on-vehicle sensors may be influenced when vehicles cannot travel due to economic cost issue or weather issues. Such resulted missing values in the collected data can damage the effectiveness and accuracy of the existing prediction methods since they are assumed to have the input data with a fixed temporal resolution. This study proposed a road surface friction prediction model employing a Gated Recurrent Unit network-based decay mechanism (GRU-D) to handle the missing values. The evaluation results present that the proposed GRU-D networks outperform all baseline models. The impact of missing rate on predictive accuracy, learning efficiency and learned decay rate are analyzed as well. The findings can help improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of forecasting road surface friction using historical data sets with missing values, therefore mitigating the impact of wet or icy road conditions on traffic safety.

Ziyuan Pu, Shuo Wang, Chenglong Liu et al.

Road surface friction significantly impacts traffic safety and mobility. A precise road surface friction prediction model can help to alleviate the influence of inclement road conditions on traffic safety, Level of Service, traffic mobility, fuel efficiency, and sustained economic productivity. Most related previous studies are laboratory-based methods that are difficult for practical implementation. Moreover, in other data-driven methods, the demonstrated time-series features of road surface conditions have not been considered. This study employed a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to develop a data-driven road surface friction prediction model based on historical data. The proposed prediction model outperformed the other baseline models in terms of the lowest value of predictive performance measurements. The influence of the number of time-lags and the predicting time interval on predictive accuracy was analyzed. In addition, the influence of adding road surface water thickness, road surface temperature and air temperature on predictive accuracy also were investigated. The findings of this study can support road maintenance strategy development and decision making, thus mitigating the impact of inclement road conditions on traffic mobility and safety. Future work includes a modified LSTM-based prediction model development by accommodating flexible time intervals between time-lags.

Meixin Zhu, Jingyun Hu, Ziyuan Pu et al.

This study developed a traffic sign detection and recognition algorithm based on the RetinaNet. Two main aspects were revised to improve the detection of traffic signs: image cropping to address the issue of large image and small traffic signs; and using more anchors with various scales to detect traffic signs with different sizes and shapes. The proposed algorithm was trained and tested in a series of autonomous driving front-view images in a virtual simulation environment. Results show that the algorithm performed extremely well under good illumination and weather conditions. Its drawbacks are that it sometimes failed to detect object under bad weather conditions like snow and failed to distinguish speed limits signs with different limit values.

Ruimin Ke, Wan Li, Zhiyong Cui et al.

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed, which achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, we propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, we first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial-temporal multi-channel matrices. Then we carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial-temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using one-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

Xiaolei Ma, Yi Li, Zhiyong Cui et al.

Accurate and reliable traffic forecasting for complicated transportation networks is of vital importance to modern transportation management. The complicated spatial dependencies of roadway links and the dynamic temporal patterns of traffic states make it particularly challenging. To address these challenges, we propose a new capsule network (CapsNet) to extract the spatial features of traffic networks and utilize a nested LSTM (NLSTM) structure to capture the hierarchical temporal dependencies in traffic sequence data. A framework for network-level traffic forecasting is also proposed by sequentially connecting CapsNet and NLSTM. On the basis of literature review, our study is the first to adopt CapsNet and NLSTM in the field of traffic forecasting. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links shows that the proposed framework with the capability of capturing complicated spatiotemporal traffic patterns outperforms multiple state-of-the-art traffic forecasting baseline models. The superiority and feasibility of CapsNet and NLSTM are also demonstrated, respectively, by visualizing and quantitatively evaluating the experimental results.

Zhiyong Cui, Kristian Henrickson, Ruimin Ke et al.

Traffic forecasting is a particularly challenging application of spatiotemporal forecasting, due to the time-varying traffic patterns and the complicated spatial dependencies on road networks. To address this challenge, we learn the traffic network as a graph and propose a novel deep learning framework, Traffic Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (TGC-LSTM), to learn the interactions between roadways in the traffic network and forecast the network-wide traffic state. We define the traffic graph convolution based on the physical network topology. The relationship between the proposed traffic graph convolution and the spectral graph convolution is also discussed. An L1-norm on graph convolution weights and an L2-norm on graph convolution features are added to the model's loss function to enhance the interpretability of the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline methods on two real-world traffic state datasets. The visualization of the graph convolution weights indicates that the proposed framework can recognize the most influential road segments in real-world traffic networks.

Zhiyong Cui, Ruimin Ke, Ziyuan Pu et al.

Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of deep learning methods in traffic forecasting has not yet fully been exploited in terms of the depth of the model architecture, the spatial scale of the prediction area, and the predictive power of spatial-temporal data. In this paper, a deep stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM (SBU- LSTM) neural network architecture is proposed, which considers both forward and backward dependencies in time series data, to predict network-wide traffic speed. A bidirectional LSTM (BDLSM) layer is exploited to capture spatial features and bidirectional temporal dependencies from historical data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that BDLSTMs have been applied as building blocks for a deep architecture model to measure the backward dependency of traffic data for prediction. The proposed model can handle missing values in input data by using a masking mechanism. Further, this scalable model can predict traffic speed for both freeway and complex urban traffic networks. Comparisons with other classical and state-of-the-art models indicate that the proposed SBU-LSTM neural network achieves superior prediction performance for the whole traffic network in both accuracy and robustness.