Zhi Zhou

Zhi Zhou, Tan Yuhao, Zenan Li et al.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. However, single-shot inference often yields unreliable results for complex reasoning tasks, leading researchers to explore multiple reasoning paths through methods such as perplexity and self-consistency. In this paper, we present the first theoretical error decomposition analysis of these techniques, breaking down their error into estimation error and model error. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off: perplexity methods suffer from substantial model error due to the absence of a proper consistency function, while self-consistency exhibits high estimation error due to a slow error convergence rate. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reasoning-Pruning Perplexity Consistency (RPC). This approach combines Perplexity Consistency, which seamlessly integrates LLM perplexity with self-consistency, and Reasoning Pruning, which eliminates low-probability reasoning paths to effectively prevent the degeneration of estimation error reduction. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that RPC not only accelerates the convergence rate of estimation error to an exponential level but also holds strong potential for further reducing model error. Extensive empirical evaluations on seven benchmark datasets confirm that RPC can significantly improve reasoning performance, sample efficiency, and confidence reliability.

Zhi Zhou, Yuhao Tan, Zenan Li et al.

Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence. To address these limitations, we introduce RPC, a hybrid method that leverages our theoretical insights through two key components: Perplexity Consistency and Reasoning Pruning. Perplexity Consistency combines the strengths of self-consistency and perplexity, boosting the convergence rate of estimation error from linear to exponential while preserving model error. Reasoning Pruning prevents degradation by eliminating low-probability reasoning paths. Both theoretical analysis and empirical results across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that RPC has a strong potential for reducing reasoning error. Notably, RPC achieves reasoning performance comparable to self-consistency while not only enhancing confidence reliability but also reducing sampling costs by 50%. The code and resources are available at https://wnjxyk.github.io/RPC.

Lin-Han Jia, Si-Yu Han, Wen-Chao Hu et al.

Neuro-symbolic (Nesy) learning improves the target task performance of models by enabling them to satisfy knowledge, while semi/self-supervised learning (SSL) improves the target task performance by designing unsupervised pretext tasks for unlabeled data to make models satisfy corresponding assumptions. We extend the Nesy theory based on reliable knowledge to the scenario of unreliable knowledge (i.e., assumptions), thereby unifying the theoretical frameworks of SSL and Nesy. Through rigorous theoretical analysis, we demonstrate that, in theory, the impact of pretext tasks on target performance hinges on three factors: knowledge learnability with respect to the model, knowledge reliability with respect to the data, and knowledge completeness with respect to the target. We further propose schemes to operationalize these theoretical metrics, and thereby develop a method that can predict the effectiveness of pretext tasks in advance. This will change the current status quo in practical applications, where the selections of unsupervised tasks are heuristic-based rather than theory-based, and it is difficult to evaluate the rationality of unsupervised pretext task selection before testing the model on the target task. In experiments, we verify a high correlation between the predicted performance-estimated using minimal data-and the actual performance achieved after large-scale semi-supervised or self-supervised learning, thus confirming the validity of the theory and the effectiveness of the evaluation method.

Shi-Yu Tian, Zhi Zhou, Wei Dong et al.

Mathematical reasoning has long been a key benchmark for evaluating large language models (LLMs). Although substantial progress has been made on math word problems, the need for reasoning over tabular data in real-world applications has been overlooked. For instance, applications such as business intelligence demand not only multi-step numerical reasoning with tables but also robustness to incomplete or inconsistent information. However, comprehensive evaluation in this area is severely limited, constrained by the reliance on manually collected tables that are difficult to scale and the lack of coverage for potential traps encountered in real-world scenarios. To address this problem, we propose AutoT2T, a neuro-symbolic framework that controllably transforms math word problems into scalable and verified tabular reasoning tasks, enabling the evaluation of both accuracy and robustness. Building on this pipeline, we develop TabularGSM, a benchmark comprising three progressively complex subsets and a trap subset, with two complementary evaluation settings. Our study reveals three key observations: (1) Tabular structure makes mathematical reasoning more challenging; (2) The difficulties stem from the joint effects of tabular retrieval and reasoning; (3) Reasoning robustness is another significant issue that needs to be addressed in existing LLMs. In-depth analyses are conducted for each observation to guide future research.