Miao Xiong

Miao Xiong, Ailin Deng, Pang Wei Koh et al. · stanford

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*, a phenomenon where models tend to be more overconfident in low proximity data (i.e., data lying in the sparse region of the data distribution) compared to high proximity samples, and thus suffer from inconsistent miscalibration across different proximity samples. We examine the problem over 504 pretrained ImageNet models and observe that: 1) Proximity bias exists across a wide variety of model architectures and sizes; 2) Transformer-based models are relatively more susceptible to proximity bias than CNN-based models; 3) Proximity bias persists even after performing popular calibration algorithms like temperature scaling; 4) Models tend to overfit more heavily on low proximity samples than on high proximity samples. Motivated by the empirical findings, we propose ProCal, a plug-and-play algorithm with a theoretical guarantee to adjust sample confidence based on proximity. To further quantify the effectiveness of calibration algorithms in mitigating proximity bias, we introduce proximity-informed expected calibration error (PIECE) with theoretical analysis. We show that ProCal is effective in addressing proximity bias and improving calibration on balanced, long-tail, and distribution-shift settings under four metrics over various model architectures. We believe our findings on proximity bias will guide the development of *fairer and better-calibrated* models, contributing to the broader pursuit of trustworthy AI. Our code is available at: https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/ProximityBias-Calibration.

Miao Xiong, Zhiyuan Hu, Xinyang Lu et al.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Shen Li, Jianqing Xu, Jiaying Wu et al.

Synthetic face recognition (SFR) aims to generate synthetic face datasets that mimic the distribution of real face data, which allows for training face recognition models in a privacy-preserving manner. Despite the remarkable potential of diffusion models in image generation, current diffusion-based SFR models struggle with generalization to real-world faces. To address this limitation, we outline three key objectives for SFR: (1) promoting diversity across identities (inter-class diversity), (2) ensuring diversity within each identity by injecting various facial attributes (intra-class diversity), and (3) maintaining identity consistency within each identity group (intra-class identity preservation). Inspired by these goals, we introduce a diffusion-fueled SFR model termed $\text{ID}^3$. $\text{ID}^3$ employs an ID-preserving loss to generate diverse yet identity-consistent facial appearances. Theoretically, we show that minimizing this loss is equivalent to maximizing the lower bound of an adjusted conditional log-likelihood over ID-preserving data. This equivalence motivates an ID-preserving sampling algorithm, which operates over an adjusted gradient vector field, enabling the generation of fake face recognition datasets that approximate the distribution of real-world faces. Extensive experiments across five challenging benchmarks validate the advantages of $\text{ID}^3$.

Ailin Deng, Shen Li, Miao Xiong et al.

Trustworthy machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning models. While state-of-the-art models achieve astonishingly good performance in terms of accuracy, recent literature reveals that their predictive confidence scores unfortunately cannot be trusted: e.g., they are often overconfident when wrong predictions are made, or so even for obvious outliers. In this paper, we introduce a new approach of self-supervised probing, which enables us to check and mitigate the overconfidence issue for a trained model, thereby improving its trustworthiness. We provide a simple yet effective framework, which can be flexibly applied to existing trustworthiness-related methods in a plug-and-play manner. Extensive experiments on three trustworthiness-related tasks (misclassification detection, calibration and out-of-distribution detection) across various benchmarks verify the effectiveness of our proposed probing framework.

Yuwen Li, Miao Xiong, Bryan Hooi

Label errors have been found to be prevalent in popular text, vision, and audio datasets, which heavily influence the safe development and evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Despite increasing efforts towards improving the quality of generic data types, such as images and texts, the problem of mislabel detection in graph data remains underexplored. To bridge the gap, we explore mislabelling issues in popular real-world graph datasets and propose GraphCleaner, a post-hoc method to detect and correct these mislabelled nodes in graph datasets. GraphCleaner combines the novel ideas of 1) Synthetic Mislabel Dataset Generation, which seeks to generate realistic mislabels; and 2) Neighborhood-Aware Mislabel Detection, where neighborhood dependency is exploited in both labels and base classifier predictions. Empirical evaluations on 6 datasets and 6 experimental settings demonstrate that GraphCleaner outperforms the closest baseline, with an average improvement of 0.14 in F1 score, and 0.16 in MCC. On real-data case studies, GraphCleaner detects real and previously unknown mislabels in popular graph benchmarks: PubMed, Cora, CiteSeer and OGB-arxiv; we find that at least 6.91% of PubMed data is mislabelled or ambiguous, and simply removing these mislabelled data can boost evaluation performance from 86.71% to 89.11%.

Ailin Deng, Miao Xiong, Bryan Hooi

Reliable application of machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning methods. A fundamental challenge is that models are often unreliable due to overconfidence. In this paper, we estimate a model's reliability by measuring \emph{the agreement between its latent space, and the latent space of a foundation model}. However, it is challenging to measure the agreement between two different latent spaces due to their incoherence, \eg, arbitrary rotations and different dimensionality. To overcome this incoherence issue, we design a \emph{neighborhood agreement measure} between latent spaces and find that this agreement is surprisingly well-correlated with the reliability of a model's predictions. Further, we show that fusing neighborhood agreement into a model's predictive confidence in a post-hoc way significantly improves its reliability. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on failure detection across various datasets verify the effectiveness of our method on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings.