Fu Han

Mouxiang Chen, Lefei Shen, Han Fu et al.

Recent years have witnessed the success of introducing deep learning models to time series forecasting. From a data generation perspective, we illustrate that existing models are susceptible to distribution shifts driven by temporal contexts, whether observed or unobserved. Such context-driven distribution shift (CDS) introduces biases in predictions within specific contexts and poses challenges for conventional training paradigms. In this paper, we introduce a universal calibration methodology for the detection and adaptation of CDS with a trained model. To this end, we propose a novel CDS detector, termed the "residual-based CDS detector" or "Reconditionor", which quantifies the model's vulnerability to CDS by evaluating the mutual information between prediction residuals and their corresponding contexts. A high Reconditionor score indicates a severe susceptibility, thereby necessitating model adaptation. In this circumstance, we put forth a straightforward yet potent adapter framework for model calibration, termed the "sample-level contextualized adapter" or "SOLID". This framework involves the curation of a contextually similar dataset to the provided test sample and the subsequent fine-tuning of the model's prediction layer with a limited number of steps. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that this adaptation strategy can achieve an optimal bias-variance trade-off. Notably, our proposed Reconditionor and SOLID are model-agnostic and readily adaptable to a wide range of models. Extensive experiments show that SOLID consistently enhances the performance of current forecasting models on real-world datasets, especially on cases with substantial CDS detected by the proposed Reconditionor, thus validating the effectiveness of the calibration approach.

Zhisheng Lin, Han Fu, Chenghao Liu et al.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) has emerged as an effective method for adapting pre-trained language models to various tasks efficiently. Recently, there has been a growing interest in transferring knowledge from one or multiple tasks to the downstream target task to achieve performance improvements. However, current approaches typically either train adapters on individual tasks or distill shared knowledge from source tasks, failing to fully exploit task-specific knowledge and the correlation between source and target tasks. To overcome these limitations, we propose PEMT, a novel parameter-efficient fine-tuning framework based on multi-task transfer learning. PEMT extends the mixture-of-experts (MoE) framework to capture the transferable knowledge as a weighted combination of adapters trained on source tasks. These weights are determined by a gated unit, measuring the correlation between the target and each source task using task description prompt vectors. To fully exploit the task-specific knowledge, we also propose the Task Sparsity Loss to improve the sparsity of the gated unit. We conduct experiments on a broad range of tasks over 17 datasets. The experimental results demonstrate our PEMT yields stable improvements over full fine-tuning, and state-of-the-art PEFT and knowledge transferring methods on various tasks. The results highlight the effectiveness of our method which is capable of sufficiently exploiting the knowledge and correlation features across multiple tasks.