Gabriele Visentin

Gabriele Visentin, Patrick Cheridito

We present a novel method for efficiently computing optimal transport maps and Wasserstein barycenters in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach uses conditional normalizing flows to approximate the input distributions as invertible pushforward transformations from a common latent space. This makes it possible to directly solve the primal problem using gradient-based minimization of the transport cost, unlike previous methods that rely on dual formulations and complex adversarial optimization. We show how this approach can be extended to compute Wasserstein barycenters by solving a conditional variance minimization problem. A key advantage of our conditional architecture is that it enables the computation of barycenters for hundreds of input distributions, which was computationally infeasible with previous methods. Our numerical experiments illustrate that our approach yields accurate results across various high-dimensional tasks and compares favorably with previous state-of-the-art methods.

Gabriele Visentin, Patrick Cheridito

In this paper, we show that interventionally robust optimization problems in causal models are continuous under the $G$-causal Wasserstein distance, but may be discontinuous under the standard Wasserstein distance. This highlights the importance of using generative models that respect the causal structure when augmenting data for such tasks. To this end, we propose a new normalizing flow architecture that satisfies a universal approximation property for causal structural models and can be efficiently trained to minimize the $G$-causal Wasserstein distance. Empirically, we demonstrate that our model outperforms standard (non-causal) generative models in data augmentation for causal regression and mean-variance portfolio optimization in causal factor models.

Matteo Citterio, Marco D'Errico, Gabriele Visentin

We introduce a novel Dynamic Graph Neural Network (DGNN) architecture for solving conditional $m$-steps ahead forecasting problems in temporal financial networks. The proposed DGNN is validated on simulated data from a temporal financial network model capturing stylized features of Interest Rate Swaps (IRSs) transaction networks, where financial entities trade swap contracts dynamically and the network topology evolves conditionally on a reference rate. The proposed model is able to produce accurate conditional forecasts of net variation margins up to a $21$-day horizon by leveraging conditional information under pre-determined stress test scenarios. Our work shows that the network dynamics can be successfully incorporated into stress-testing practices, thus providing regulators and policymakers with a crucial tool for systemic risk monitoring.