Sebastian Scher

Sebastian Scher, Simone Kopeinik, Andreas Trügler et al.

The use of data-driven decision support by public agencies is becoming more widespread and already influences the allocation of public resources. This raises ethical concerns, as it has adversely affected minorities and historically discriminated groups. In this paper, we use an approach that combines statistics and data-driven approaches with dynamical modeling to assess long-term fairness effects of labor market interventions. Specifically, we develop and use a model to investigate the impact of decisions caused by a public employment authority that selectively supports job-seekers through targeted help. The selection of who receives what help is based on a data-driven intervention model that estimates an individual's chances of finding a job in a timely manner and rests upon data that describes a population in which skills relevant to the labor market are unevenly distributed between two groups (e.g., males and females). The intervention model has incomplete access to the individual's actual skills and can augment this with knowledge of the individual's group affiliation, thus using a protected attribute to increase predictive accuracy. We assess this intervention model's dynamics -- especially fairness-related issues and trade-offs between different fairness goals -- over time and compare it to an intervention model that does not use group affiliation as a predictive feature. We conclude that in order to quantify the trade-off correctly and to assess the long-term fairness effects of such a system in the real-world, careful modeling of the surrounding labor market is indispensable.

Sebastian Scher, Andreas Trügler

Correctly quantifying the robustness of machine learning models is a central aspect in judging their suitability for specific tasks, and ultimately, for generating trust in them. We address the problem of finding the robustness of individual predictions. We show both theoretically and with empirical examples that a method based on counterfactuals that was previously proposed for this is insufficient, as it is not a valid metric for determining the robustness against perturbations that occur ``naturally'', outside specific adversarial attack scenarios. We propose a flexible approach that models possible perturbations in input data individually for each application. This is then combined with a probabilistic approach that computes the likelihood that a ``real-world'' perturbation will change a prediction, thus giving quantitative information of the robustness of individual predictions of the trained machine learning model. The method does not require access to the internals of the classifier and thus in principle works for any black-box model. It is, however, based on Monte-Carlo sampling and thus only suited for input spaces with small dimensions. We illustrate our approach on the Iris and the Ionosphere datasets, on an application predicting fog at an airport, and on analytically solvable cases.

Sebastian Scher, Bernhard Geiger, Simone Kopeinik et al.

For a long time, machine learning (ML) has been seen as the abstract problem of learning relationships from data independent of the surrounding settings. This has recently been challenged, and methods have been proposed to include external constraints in the machine learning models. These methods usually come from application-specific fields, such as de-biasing algorithms in the field of fairness in ML or physical constraints in the fields of physics and engineering. In this paper, we present and discuss a conceptual high-level model that unifies these approaches in a common language. We hope that this will enable and foster exchange between the different fields and their different methods for including external constraints into ML models, and thus leaving purely data-centric approaches.

Christoph Schweimer, Sebastian Scher

The concept of trustworthy AI has gained widespread attention lately. One of the aspects relevant to trustworthy AI is robustness of ML models. In this study, we show how to probabilistically quantify robustness against naturally occurring distortions of input data for tree-based classifiers under the assumption that the natural distortions can be described by multivariate probability distributions that can be transformed to multivariate normal distributions. The idea is to extract the decision rules of a trained tree-based classifier, separate the feature space into non-overlapping regions and determine the probability that a data sample with distortion returns its predicted label. The approach is based on the recently introduced measure of real-world-robustness, which works for all black box classifiers, but is only an approximation and only works if the input dimension is not too high, whereas our proposed method gives an exact measure.

Stephan Rasp, Peter D. Dueben, Sebastian Scher et al.

Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in advance. First studies show promise but the lack of a common dataset and evaluation metrics make inter-comparison between studies difficult. Here we present a benchmark dataset for data-driven medium-range weather forecasting, a topic of high scientific interest for atmospheric and computer scientists alike. We provide data derived from the ERA5 archive that has been processed to facilitate the use in machine learning models. We propose simple and clear evaluation metrics which will enable a direct comparison between different methods. Further, we provide baseline scores from simple linear regression techniques, deep learning models, as well as purely physical forecasting models. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/pangeo-data/WeatherBench and the companion code is reproducible with tutorials for getting started. We hope that this dataset will accelerate research in data-driven weather forecasting.

Dominik Kowald, Sebastian Scher, Viktoria Pammer-Schindler et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies (re-)shape modern life, driving innovation in a wide range of sectors. However, some AI systems have yielded unexpected or undesirable outcomes or have been used in questionable manners. As a result, there has been a surge in public and academic discussions about aspects that AI systems must fulfill to be considered trustworthy. In this paper, we synthesize existing conceptualizations of trustworthy AI along six requirements: 1) human agency and oversight, 2) fairness and non-discrimination, 3) transparency and explainability, 4) robustness and accuracy, 5) privacy and security, and 6) accountability. For each one, we provide a definition, describe how it can be established and evaluated, and discuss requirement-specific research challenges. Finally, we conclude this analysis by identifying overarching research challenges across the requirements with respect to 1) interdisciplinary research, 2) conceptual clarity, 3) context-dependency, 4) dynamics in evolving systems, and 5) investigations in real-world contexts. Thus, this paper synthesizes and consolidates a wide-ranging and active discussion currently taking place in various academic sub-communities and public forums. It aims to serve as a reference for a broad audience and as a basis for future research directions.

Sebastian Scher, Gabriele Messori

Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of approaches to achieve this have been explored -- chiefly in the context of numerical weather prediction models. Here, we aim to transform a deterministic neural network weather forecasting system into an ensemble forecasting system. We test four methods to generate the ensemble: random initial perturbations, retraining of the neural network, use of random dropout in the network, and the creation of initial perturbations with singular vector decomposition. The latter method is widely used in numerical weather prediction models, but is yet to be tested on neural networks. The ensemble mean forecasts obtained from these four approaches all beat the unperturbed neural network forecasts, with the retraining method yielding the highest improvement. However, the skill of the neural network forecasts is systematically lower than that of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models.