Shikai Fang

Junjie Li, Yang Liu, Weiqing Liu et al.

Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's "paradigm shift" potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.

Zheng Wang, Shibo Li, Shikai Fang et al.

Multi-fidelity surrogate learning is important for physical simulation related applications in that it avoids running numerical solvers from scratch, which is known to be costly, and it uses multi-fidelity examples for training and greatly reduces the cost of data collection. Despite the variety of existing methods, they all build a model to map the input parameters outright to the solution output. Inspired by the recent breakthrough in generative models, we take an alternative view and consider the solution output as generated from random noises. We develop a diffusion-generative multi-fidelity (DGMF) learning method based on stochastic differential equations (SDE), where the generation is a continuous denoising process. We propose a conditional score model to control the solution generation by the input parameters and the fidelity. By conditioning on additional inputs (temporal or spacial variables), our model can efficiently learn and predict multi-dimensional solution arrays. Our method naturally unifies discrete and continuous fidelity modeling. The advantage of our method in several typical applications shows a promising new direction for multi-fidelity learning.

Xu Yang, Xiao Yang, Shikai Fang et al.

Recent advances in AI and ML have transformed data science, yet increasing complexity and expertise requirements continue to hinder progress. Although crowd-sourcing platforms alleviate some challenges, high-level machine learning engineering (MLE) tasks remain labor-intensive and iterative. We introduce R&D-Agent, a comprehensive, decoupled, and extensible framework that formalizes the MLE process. R&D-Agent defines the MLE workflow into two phases and six components, turning agent design for MLE from ad-hoc craftsmanship into a principled, testable process. Although several existing agents report promising gains on their chosen components, they can mostly be summarized as a partial optimization from our framework's simple baseline. Inspired by human experts, we designed efficient and effective agents within this framework that achieve state-of-the-art performance. Evaluated on MLE-Bench, the agent built on R&D-Agent ranks as the top-performing machine learning engineering agent, achieving 35.1% any medal rate, demonstrating the ability of the framework to speed up innovation and improve accuracy across a wide range of data science applications. We have open-sourced R&D-Agent on GitHub: https://github.com/microsoft/RD-Agent.

Yu Chen, Wei Deng, Shikai Fang et al.

The Schrödinger bridge problem (SBP) is gaining increasing attention in generative modeling and showing promising potential even in comparison with the score-based generative models (SGMs). SBP can be interpreted as an entropy-regularized optimal transport problem, which conducts projections onto every other marginal alternatingly. However, in practice, only approximated projections are accessible and their convergence is not well understood. To fill this gap, we present a first convergence analysis of the Schrödinger bridge algorithm based on approximated projections. As for its practical applications, we apply SBP to probabilistic time series imputation by generating missing values conditioned on observed data. We show that optimizing the transport cost improves the performance and the proposed algorithm achieves the state-of-the-art result in healthcare and environmental data while exhibiting the advantage of exploring both temporal and feature patterns in probabilistic time series imputation.