Yang Nan

Zhanwen Liu, Chao Li, Yang Wang et al.

Motion prediction plays an essential role in autonomous driving systems, enabling autonomous vehicles to achieve more accurate local-path planning and driving decisions based on predictions of the surrounding vehicles. However, existing methods neglect the potential missing values caused by object occlusion, perception failures, etc., which inevitably degrades the trajectory prediction performance in real traffic scenarios. To address this limitation, we propose a novel end-to-end framework for incomplete vehicle trajectory prediction, named Multi-scale Temporal Fusion Transformer (MTFT), which consists of the Multi-scale Attention Head (MAH) and the Continuity Representation-guided Multi-scale Fusion (CRMF) module. Specifically, the MAH leverages the multi-head attention mechanism to parallelly capture multi-scale motion representation of trajectory from different temporal granularities, thus mitigating the adverse effect of missing values on prediction. Furthermore, the multi-scale motion representation is input into the CRMF module for multi-scale fusion to obtain the robust temporal feature of the vehicle. During the fusion process, the continuity representation of vehicle motion is first extracted across time steps to guide the fusion, ensuring that the resulting temporal feature incorporates both detailed information and the overall trend of vehicle motion, which facilitates the accurate decoding of future trajectory that is consistent with the vehicle's motion trend. We evaluate the proposed model on four datasets derived from highway and urban traffic scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate its superior performance in the incomplete vehicle trajectory prediction task compared with state-of-the-art models, e.g., a comprehensive performance improvement of more than 39% on the HighD dataset.

Xuanyu Chen, Nan Yang, Shuai Wang et al.

The recent success of large language models (LLMs) has sparked a growing interest in training large-scale models. As the model size continues to scale, concerns are growing about the depletion of high-quality, well-curated training data. This has led practitioners to explore training approaches like Federated Learning (FL), which can leverage the abundant data on edge devices while maintaining privacy. However, the decentralization of training datasets in FL introduces challenges to scaling large models, a topic that remains under-explored. This paper fills this gap and provides qualitative insights on generalizing the previous model scaling experience to federated learning scenarios. Specifically, we derive a PAC-Bayes (Probably Approximately Correct Bayesian) upper bound for the generalization error of models trained with stochastic algorithms in federated settings and quantify the impact of distributed training data on the optimal model size by finding the analytic solution of model size that minimizes this bound. Our theoretical results demonstrate that the optimal model size has a negative power law relationship with the number of clients if the total training compute is unchanged. Besides, we also find that switching to FL with the same training compute will inevitably reduce the upper bound of generalization performance that the model can achieve through training, and that estimating the optimal model size in federated scenarios should depend on the average training compute across clients. Furthermore, we also empirically validate the correctness of our results with extensive training runs on different models, network settings, and datasets.