Amedeo Roberto Esposito

Amedeo Roberto Esposito, Adrien Vandenbroucque, Michael Gastpar

This paper focuses on parameter estimation and introduces a new method for lower bounding the Bayesian risk. The method allows for the use of virtually \emph{any} information measure, including Rényi's $α$, $\varphi$-Divergences, and Sibson's $α$-Mutual Information. The approach considers divergences as functionals of measures and exploits the duality between spaces of measures and spaces of functions. In particular, we show that one can lower bound the risk with any information measure by upper bounding its dual via Markov's inequality. We are thus able to provide estimator-independent impossibility results thanks to the Data-Processing Inequalities that divergences satisfy. The results are then applied to settings of interest involving both discrete and continuous parameters, including the ``Hide-and-Seek'' problem, and compared to the state-of-the-art techniques. An important observation is that the behaviour of the lower bound in the number of samples is influenced by the choice of the information measure. We leverage this by introducing a new divergence inspired by the ``Hockey-Stick'' Divergence, which is demonstrated empirically to provide the largest lower-bound across all considered settings. If the observations are subject to privatisation, stronger impossibility results can be obtained via Strong Data-Processing Inequalities. The paper also discusses some generalisations and alternative directions.

Ibrahim Issa, Amedeo Roberto Esposito, Michael Gastpar

We adopt an information-theoretic framework to analyze the generalization behavior of the class of iterative, noisy learning algorithms. This class is particularly suitable for study under information-theoretic metrics as the algorithms are inherently randomized, and it includes commonly used algorithms such as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD). Herein, we use the maximal leakage (equivalently, the Sibson mutual information of order infinity) metric, as it is simple to analyze, and it implies both bounds on the probability of having a large generalization error and on its expected value. We show that, if the update function (e.g., gradient) is bounded in $L_2$-norm and the additive noise is isotropic Gaussian noise, then one can obtain an upper-bound on maximal leakage in semi-closed form. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the assumptions on the update function affect the optimal (in the sense of minimizing the induced maximal leakage) choice of the noise. Finally, we compute explicit tight upper bounds on the induced maximal leakage for other scenarios of interest.

Sushil Bohara, Amedeo Roberto Esposito

Variational Inference (VI) provides a scalable framework for Bayesian inference by optimizing the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO), but convergence analysis remains challenging due to the objective's non-convexity and non-smoothness in Euclidean space. We establish a novel theoretical framework for analyzing VI convergence by exploiting the exponential family structure of distributions. We express negative ELBO as a Bregman divergence with respect to the log-partition function, enabling a geometric analysis of the optimization landscape. We show that this Bregman representation admits a weak monotonicity property that, while weaker than convexity, provides sufficient structure for rigorous convergence analysis. By deriving bounds on the objective function along rays in parameter space, we establish properties governed by the spectral characteristics of the Fisher information matrix. Under this geometric framework, we prove non-asymptotic convergence rates for gradient descent algorithms with both constant and diminishing step sizes.

Amedeo Roberto Esposito, Michael Gastpar

In this work, we connect the problem of bounding the expected generalisation error with transportation-cost inequalities. Exposing the underlying pattern behind both approaches we are able to generalise them and go beyond Kullback-Leibler Divergences/Mutual Information and sub-Gaussian measures. In particular, we are able to provide a result showing the equivalence between two families of inequalities: one involving functionals and one involving measures. This result generalises the one proposed by Bobkov and Götze that connects transportation-cost inequalities with concentration of measure. Moreover, it allows us to recover all standard generalisation error bounds involving mutual information and to introduce new, more general bounds, that involve arbitrary divergence measures.

Amedeo Roberto Esposito, Michael Gastpar, Ibrahim Issa

The aim of this work is to provide bounds connecting two probability measures of the same event using Rényi $α$-Divergences and Sibson's $α$-Mutual Information, a generalization of respectively the Kullback-Leibler Divergence and Shannon's Mutual Information. A particular case of interest can be found when the two probability measures considered are a joint distribution and the corresponding product of marginals (representing the statistically independent scenario). In this case, a bound using Sibson's $α-$Mutual Information is retrieved, extending a result involving Maximal Leakage to general alphabets. These results have broad applications, from bounding the generalization error of learning algorithms to the more general framework of adaptive data analysis, provided that the divergences and/or information measures used are amenable to such an analysis ({\it i.e.,} are robust to post-processing and compose adaptively). The generalization error bounds are derived with respect to high-probability events but a corresponding bound on expected generalization error is also retrieved.

Amedeo Roberto Esposito, Michael Gastpar, Ibrahim Issa

In this work, the probability of an event under some joint distribution is bounded by measuring it with the product of the marginals instead (which is typically easier to analyze) together with a measure of the dependence between the two random variables. These results find applications in adaptive data analysis, where multiple dependencies are introduced and in learning theory, where they can be employed to bound the generalization error of a learning algorithm. Bounds are given in terms of Sibson's Mutual Information, $α-$Divergences, Hellinger Divergences, and $f-$Divergences. A case of particular interest is the Maximal Leakage (or Sibson's Mutual Information of order infinity), since this measure is robust to post-processing and composes adaptively. The corresponding bound can be seen as a generalization of classical bounds, such as Hoeffding's and McDiarmid's inequalities, to the case of dependent random variables.

Amedeo Roberto Esposito, Michael Gastpar, Ibrahim Issa

There is an increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The main cause seems to lie in the fundamental disconnection between theory and practice in data analysis. While the former typically relies on statistical independence, the latter is an inherently adaptive process: new hypotheses are formulated based on the outcomes of previous analyses. A recent line of work tries to mitigate these issues by enforcing constraints, such as differential privacy, that compose adaptively while degrading gracefully and thus provide statistical guarantees even in adaptive contexts. Our contribution consists in the introduction of a new approach, based on the concept of Maximal Leakage, an information-theoretic measure of leakage of information. The main result allows us to compare the probability of an event happening when adaptivity is considered with respect to the non-adaptive scenario. The bound we derive represents a generalization of the bounds used in non-adaptive scenarios (e.g., McDiarmid's inequality for $c$-sensitive functions, false discovery error control via significance level, etc.), and allows us to replicate or even improve, in certain regimes, the results obtained using Max-Information or Differential Privacy. In contrast with the line of work started by Dwork et al., our results do not rely on Differential Privacy but are, in principle, applicable to every algorithm that has a bounded leakage, including the differentially private algorithms and the ones with a short description length.