Yang Li

Sukrita Singh, Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Li et al. · mit

Machine learning algorithms have grown in sophistication over the years and are increasingly deployed for real-life applications. However, when using machine learning techniques in practical settings, particularly in high-risk applications such as medicine and engineering, obtaining the failure probability of the predictive model is critical. We refer to this problem as the risk-assessment task. We focus on regression algorithms and the risk-assessment task of computing the probability of the true label lying inside an interval defined around the model's prediction. We solve the risk-assessment problem using the conformal prediction approach, which provides prediction intervals that are guaranteed to contain the true label with a given probability. Using this coverage property, we prove that our approximated failure probability is conservative in the sense that it is not lower than the true failure probability of the ML algorithm. We conduct extensive experiments to empirically study the accuracy of the proposed method for problems with and without covariate shift. Our analysis focuses on different modeling regimes, dataset sizes, and conformal prediction methodologies.

Hanbing Liu, Lang Cao, Yang Li

Large language models (LLMs) acquire most of their knowledge during pretraining, which ties them to a fixed snapshot of the world and makes adaptation to continuously evolving knowledge challenging. As facts, entities, and events change over time, models may experience continuous knowledge drift, resulting not only in outdated predictions but also in temporally inconsistent reasoning. Although existing approaches, such as continual finetuning, knowledge editing, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), aim to update or supplement model knowledge, they are rarely evaluated in settings that reflect chronological, evolving, and real-world knowledge evolution. In this work, we introduce a new benchmark of real-world dynamic events, constructed from time-stamped evidence that captures how knowledge evolves over time, which enables systematic evaluation of model adaptation under continuous knowledge drift. The benchmark reveals that most existing methods, including vanilla RAG and several learning-based approaches, struggle under this setting, exposing critical limitations such as catastrophic forgetting and temporal inconsistency. To mitigate these limitations, we propose a time-aware retrieval baseline, Chronos, which progressively organizes retrieved evidence into an Event Evolution Graph to enable more temporally consistent understanding in LLMs without additional training. Overall, this work provides a foundation for analyzing and advancing LLM adaptation to continuous knowledge drift in realistic settings.