Jacob-Junqi Tian

Jacob-Junqi Tian, David Emerson, Sevil Zanjani Miyandoab et al.

Prompting large language models has gained immense popularity in recent years due to the advantage of producing good results even without the need for labelled data. However, this requires prompt tuning to get optimal prompts that lead to better model performances. In this paper, we explore the use of soft-prompt tuning on sentiment classification task to quantify the biases of large language models (LLMs) such as Open Pre-trained Transformers (OPT) and Galactica language model. Since these models are trained on real-world data that could be prone to bias toward certain groups of populations, it is important to identify these underlying issues. Using soft-prompts to evaluate bias gives us the extra advantage of avoiding the human-bias injection that can be caused by manually designed prompts. We check the model biases on different sensitive attributes using the group fairness (bias) and find interesting bias patterns. Since LLMs have been used in the industry in various applications, it is crucial to identify the biases before deploying these models in practice. We open-source our pipeline and encourage industry researchers to adapt our work to their use cases.

Jacob-Junqi Tian, Omkar Dige, D. B. Emerson et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained on vast, uncurated datasets that contain various forms of biases and language reinforcing harmful stereotypes that may be subsequently inherited by the models themselves. Therefore, it is essential to examine and address biases in language models, integrating fairness into their development to ensure that these models do not perpetuate social biases. In this work, we demonstrate the importance of reasoning in zero-shot stereotype identification across several open-source LLMs. Accurate identification of stereotypical language is a complex task requiring a nuanced understanding of social structures, biases, and existing unfair generalizations about particular groups. While improved accuracy is observed through model scaling, the use of reasoning, especially multi-step reasoning, is crucial to consistent performance. Additionally, through a qualitative analysis of select reasoning traces, we highlight how reasoning improves not just accuracy, but also the interpretability of model decisions. This work firmly establishes reasoning as a critical component in automatic stereotype detection and is a first step towards stronger stereotype mitigation pipelines for LLMs.

Kellin Pelrine, Anne Imouza, Zachary Yang et al.

A large number of studies on social media compare the behaviour of users from different political parties. As a basic step, they employ a predictive model for inferring their political affiliation. The accuracy of this model can change the conclusions of a downstream analysis significantly, yet the choice between different models seems to be made arbitrarily. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey and an empirical comparison of the current party prediction practices and propose several new approaches which are competitive with or outperform state-of-the-art methods, yet require less computational resources. Party prediction models rely on the content generated by the users (e.g., tweet texts), the relations they have (e.g., who they follow), or their activities and interactions (e.g., which tweets they like). We examine all of these and compare their signal strength for the party prediction task. This paper lets the practitioner select from a wide range of data types that all give strong performance. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on different aspects of these methods, such as data collection speed and transfer capabilities, which can provide further insights for both applied and methodological research.

Jacob-Junqi Tian, Hao Yu, Yury Orlovskiy et al.

This paper develops an agent-based automated fact-checking approach for detecting misinformation. We demonstrate that combining a powerful LLM agent, which does not have access to the internet for searches, with an online web search agent yields better results than when each tool is used independently. Our approach is robust across multiple models, outperforming alternatives and increasing the macro F1 of misinformation detection by as much as 20 percent compared to LLMs without search. We also conduct extensive analyses on the sources our system leverages and their biases, decisions in the construction of the system like the search tool and the knowledge base, the type of evidence needed and its impact on the results, and other parts of the overall process. By combining strong performance with in-depth understanding, we hope to provide building blocks for future search-enabled misinformation mitigation systems.

Omkar Dige, Jacob-Junqi Tian, David Emerson et al.

As the breadth and depth of language model applications continue to expand rapidly, it is increasingly important to build efficient frameworks for measuring and mitigating the learned or inherited social biases of these models. In this paper, we present our work on evaluating instruction fine-tuned language models' ability to identify bias through zero-shot prompting, including Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompts. Across LLaMA and its two instruction fine-tuned versions, Alpaca 7B performs best on the bias identification task with an accuracy of 56.7%. We also demonstrate that scaling up LLM size and data diversity could lead to further performance gain. This is a work-in-progress presenting the first component of our bias mitigation framework. We will keep updating this work as we get more results.

Bijean Ghafouri, Shahrad Mohammadzadeh, James Zhou et al.

Large language models are increasingly relied upon as sources of information, but their propensity for generating false or misleading statements with high confidence poses risks for users and society. In this paper, we confront the critical problem of epistemic miscalibration $\unicode{x2013}$ where a model's linguistic assertiveness fails to reflect its true internal certainty. We introduce a new human-labeled dataset and a novel method for measuring the linguistic assertiveness of Large Language Models (LLMs) which cuts error rates by over 50% relative to previous benchmarks. Validated across multiple datasets, our method reveals a stark misalignment between how confidently models linguistically present information and their actual accuracy. Further human evaluations confirm the severity of this miscalibration. This evidence underscores the urgent risk of the overstated certainty LLMs hold which may mislead users on a massive scale. Our framework provides a crucial step forward in diagnosing this miscalibration, offering a path towards correcting it and more trustworthy AI across domains.

Camille Thibault, Jacob-Junqi Tian, Gabrielle Peloquin-Skulski et al.

Misinformation is a complex societal issue, and mitigating solutions are difficult to create due to data deficiencies. To address this, we have curated the largest collection of (mis)information datasets in the literature, totaling 75. From these, we evaluated the quality of 36 datasets that consist of statements or claims, as well as the 9 datasets that consist of data in purely paragraph form. We assess these datasets to identify those with solid foundations for empirical work and those with flaws that could result in misleading and non-generalizable results, such as spurious correlations, or examples that are ambiguous or otherwise impossible to assess for veracity. We find the latter issue is particularly severe and affects most datasets in the literature. We further provide state-of-the-art baselines on all these datasets, but show that regardless of label quality, categorical labels may no longer give an accurate evaluation of detection model performance. Finally, we propose and highlight Evaluation Quality Assurance (EQA) as a tool to guide the field toward systemic solutions rather than inadvertently propagating issues in evaluation. Overall, this guide aims to provide a roadmap for higher quality data and better grounded evaluations, ultimately improving research in misinformation detection. All datasets and other artifacts are available at https://misinfo-datasets.complexdatalab.com/.

Farnaz Kohankhaki, D. B. Emerson, Jacob-Junqi Tian et al.

Bias in large language models (LLMs) has many forms, from overt discrimination to implicit stereotypes. Counterfactual bias evaluation is a widely used approach to quantifying bias and often relies on template-based probes that explicitly state group membership. It measures whether the outcome of a task performed by an LLM is invariant to a change in group membership. In this work, we find that template-based probes can lead to unrealistic bias measurements. For example, LLMs appear to mistakenly cast text associated with White race as negative at higher rates than other groups. We hypothesize that this arises artificially via a mismatch between commonly unstated norms, in the form of markedness, in the pretraining text of LLMs (e.g., Black president vs. president) and templates used for bias measurement (e.g., Black president vs. White president). The findings highlight the potential misleading impact of varying group membership through explicit mention in counterfactual bias quantification.

Raeid Saqur, Anastasis Kratsios, Florian Krach et al.

We propose MoE-F - a formalized mechanism for combining $N$ pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for online time-series prediction by adaptively forecasting the best weighting of LLM predictions at every time step. Our mechanism leverages the conditional information in each expert's running performance to forecast the best combination of LLMs for predicting the time series in its next step. Diverging from static (learned) Mixture of Experts (MoE) methods, our approach employs time-adaptive stochastic filtering techniques to combine experts. By framing the expert selection problem as a finite state-space, continuous-time Hidden Markov model (HMM), we can leverage the Wohman-Shiryaev filter. Our approach first constructs N parallel filters corresponding to each of the $N$ individual LLMs. Each filter proposes its best combination of LLMs, given the information that they have access to. Subsequently, the N filter outputs are optimally aggregated to maximize their robust predictive power, and this update is computed efficiently via a closed-form expression, generating our ensemble predictor. Our contributions are: **(I)** the MoE-F plug-and-play filtering harness algorithm, **(II)** theoretical optimality guarantees of the proposed filtering-based gating algorithm (via optimality guarantees for its parallel Bayesian filtering and its robust aggregation steps), and **(III)** empirical evaluation and ablative results using state-of-the-art foundational and MoE LLMs on a real-world __Financial Market Movement__ task where MoE-F attains a remarkable 17\% absolute and 48.5\% relative F1 measure improvement over the next best performing individual LLM expert predicting short-horizon market movement based on streaming news. Further, we provide empirical evidence of substantial performance gains in applying MoE-F over specialized models in the long-horizon time-series forecasting domain.