Huibin Shen

Oleksandr Shchur, Caner Turkmen, Nick Erickson et al. · amazon-science

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

Sigrid Passano Hellan, Huibin Shen, François-Xavier Aubet et al.

We introduce ordered transfer hyperparameter optimisation (OTHPO), a version of transfer learning for hyperparameter optimisation (HPO) where the tasks follow a sequential order. Unlike for state-of-the-art transfer HPO, the assumption is that each task is most correlated to those immediately before it. This matches many deployed settings, where hyperparameters are retuned as more data is collected; for instance tuning a sequence of movie recommendation systems as more movies and ratings are added. We propose a formal definition, outline the differences to related problems and propose a basic OTHPO method that outperforms state-of-the-art transfer HPO. We empirically show the importance of taking order into account using ten benchmarks. The benchmarks are in the setting of gradually accumulating data, and span XGBoost, random forest, approximate k-nearest neighbor, elastic net, support vector machines and a separate real-world motivated optimisation problem. We open source the benchmarks to foster future research on ordered transfer HPO.

Mike Van Ness, Huibin Shen, Hao Wang et al.

Meta-forecasting is a newly emerging field which combines meta-learning and time series forecasting. The goal of meta-forecasting is to train over a collection of source time series and generalize to new time series one-at-a-time. Previous approaches in meta-forecasting achieve competitive performance, but with the restriction of training a separate model for each sampling frequency. In this work, we investigate meta-forecasting over different sampling frequencies, and introduce a new model, the Continuous Frequency Adapter (CFA), specifically designed to learn frequency-invariant representations. We find that CFA greatly improves performance when generalizing to unseen frequencies, providing a first step towards forecasting over larger multi-frequency datasets.

Abdul Fatir Ansari, Lorenzo Stella, Caner Turkmen et al.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

Sebastian Pineda Arango, Pedro Mercado, Shubham Kapoor et al.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Abdul Fatir Ansari, Oleksandr Shchur, Jaris Küken et al. · cmu

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Anastasia Makarova, Huibin Shen, Valerio Perrone et al.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely popular approach for the hyperparameter optimization (HPO) in machine learning. At its core, BO iteratively evaluates promising configurations until a user-defined budget, such as wall-clock time or number of iterations, is exhausted. While the final performance after tuning heavily depends on the provided budget, it is hard to pre-specify an optimal value in advance. In this work, we propose an effective and intuitive termination criterion for BO that automatically stops the procedure if it is sufficiently close to the global optimum. Our key insight is that the discrepancy between the true objective (predictive performance on test data) and the computable target (validation performance) suggests stopping once the suboptimality in optimizing the target is dominated by the statistical estimation error. Across an extensive range of real-world HPO problems and baselines, we show that our termination criterion achieves a better trade-off between the test performance and optimization time. Additionally, we find that overfitting may occur in the context of HPO, which is arguably an overlooked problem in the literature, and show how our termination criterion helps to mitigate this phenomenon on both small and large datasets.

Valerio Perrone, Huibin Shen, Aida Zolic et al.

Tuning complex machine learning systems is challenging. Machine learning typically requires to set hyperparameters, be it regularization, architecture, or optimization parameters, whose tuning is critical to achieve good predictive performance. To democratize access to machine learning systems, it is essential to automate the tuning. This paper presents Amazon SageMaker Automatic Model Tuning (AMT), a fully managed system for gradient-free optimization at scale. AMT finds the best version of a trained machine learning model by repeatedly evaluating it with different hyperparameter configurations. It leverages either random search or Bayesian optimization to choose the hyperparameter values resulting in the best model, as measured by the metric chosen by the user. AMT can be used with built-in algorithms, custom algorithms, and Amazon SageMaker pre-built containers for machine learning frameworks. We discuss the core functionality, system architecture, our design principles, and lessons learned. We also describe more advanced features of AMT, such as automated early stopping and warm-starting, showing in experiments their benefits to users.

Piali Das, Valerio Perrone, Nikita Ivkin et al.

AutoML systems provide a black-box solution to machine learning problems by selecting the right way of processing features, choosing an algorithm and tuning the hyperparameters of the entire pipeline. Although these systems perform well on many datasets, there is still a non-negligible number of datasets for which the one-shot solution produced by each particular system would provide sub-par performance. In this paper, we present Amazon SageMaker Autopilot: a fully managed system providing an automated ML solution that can be modified when needed. Given a tabular dataset and the target column name, Autopilot identifies the problem type, analyzes the data and produces a diverse set of complete ML pipelines including feature preprocessing and ML algorithms, which are tuned to generate a leaderboard of candidate models. In the scenario where the performance is not satisfactory, a data scientist is able to view and edit the proposed ML pipelines in order to infuse their expertise and business knowledge without having to revert to a fully manual solution. This paper describes the different components of Autopilot, emphasizing the infrastructure choices that allow scalability, high quality models, editable ML pipelines, consumption of artifacts of offline meta-learning, and a convenient integration with the entire SageMaker suite allowing these trained models to be used in a production setting.

David Salinas, Huibin Shen, Valerio Perrone

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular methodology to tune the hyperparameters of expensive black-box functions. Traditionally, BO focuses on a single task at a time and is not designed to leverage information from related functions, such as tuning performance objectives of the same algorithm across multiple datasets. In this work, we introduce a novel approach to achieve transfer learning across different \emph{datasets} as well as different \emph{objectives}. The main idea is to regress the mapping from hyperparameter to objective quantiles with a semi-parametric Gaussian Copula distribution, which provides robustness against different scales or outliers that can occur in different tasks. We introduce two methods to leverage this mapping: a Thompson sampling strategy as well as a Gaussian Copula process using such quantile estimate as a prior. We show that these strategies can combine the estimation of multiple objectives such as latency and accuracy, steering the hyperparameters optimization toward faster predictions for the same level of accuracy. Extensive experiments demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods for both hyperparameter optimization and neural architecture search.

Valerio Perrone, Huibin Shen, Matthias Seeger et al.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a successful methodology to optimize black-box functions that are expensive to evaluate. While traditional methods optimize each black-box function in isolation, there has been recent interest in speeding up BO by transferring knowledge across multiple related black-box functions. In this work, we introduce a method to automatically design the BO search space by relying on evaluations of previous black-box functions. We depart from the common practice of defining a set of arbitrary search ranges a priori by considering search space geometries that are learned from historical data. This simple, yet effective strategy can be used to endow many existing BO methods with transfer learning properties. Despite its simplicity, we show that our approach considerably boosts BO by reducing the size of the search space, thus accelerating the optimization of a variety of black-box optimization problems. In particular, the proposed approach combined with random search results in a parameter-free, easy-to-implement, robust hyperparameter optimization strategy. We hope it will constitute a natural baseline for further research attempting to warm-start BO.