Jingyi Yang

Yiquan Wang, Jiaying Wang, Tin-Yeh Huang et al.

This paper proposes a novel hybrid model, STGCN-LSTM, to forecast Olympic medal distributions by integrating the spatio-temporal relationships among countries and the long-term dependencies of national performance. The Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolution Network (STGCN) captures geographic and interactive factors-such as coaching exchange and socio-economic links-while the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) module models historical trends in medal counts, economic data, and demographics. To address zero-inflated outputs (i.e., the disparity between countries that consistently yield wins and those never having won medals), a Zero-Inflated Compound Poisson (ZICP) framework is incorporated to separate random zeros from structural zeros, providing a clearer view of potential breakthrough performances. Validation includes historical backtracking, policy shock simulations, and causal inference checks, confirming the robustness of the proposed method. Results shed light on the influence of coaching mobility, event specialization, and strategic investment on medal forecasts, offering a data-driven foundation for optimizing sports policies and resource allocation in diverse Olympic contexts.

Tong Wang, Jingyi Yang, Yunyi Li et al.

We propose Partially Interpretable Estimators (PIE) which attribute a prediction to individual features via an interpretable model, while a (possibly) small part of the PIE prediction is attributed to the interaction of features via a black-box model, with the goal to boost the predictive performance while maintaining interpretability. As such, the interpretable model captures the main contributions of features, and the black-box model attempts to complement the interpretable piece by capturing the "nuances" of feature interactions as a refinement. We design an iterative training algorithm to jointly train the two types of models. Experimental results show that PIE is highly competitive to black-box models while outperforming interpretable baselines. In addition, the understandability of PIE is comparable to simple linear models as validated via a human evaluation.