Juncheng Liu

Yiwei Wang, Muhao Chen, Wenxuan Zhou et al.

Recent literature focuses on utilizing the entity information in the sentence-level relation extraction (RE), but this risks leaking superficial and spurious clues of relations. As a result, RE still suffers from unintended entity bias, i.e., the spurious correlation between entity mentions (names) and relations. Entity bias can mislead the RE models to extract the relations that do not exist in the text. To combat this issue, some previous work masks the entity mentions to prevent the RE models from overfitting entity mentions. However, this strategy degrades the RE performance because it loses the semantic information of entities. In this paper, we propose the CORE (Counterfactual Analysis based Relation Extraction) debiasing method that guides the RE models to focus on the main effects of textual context without losing the entity information. We first construct a causal graph for RE, which models the dependencies between variables in RE models. Then, we propose to conduct counterfactual analysis on our causal graph to distill and mitigate the entity bias, that captures the causal effects of specific entity mentions in each instance. Note that our CORE method is model-agnostic to debias existing RE systems during inference without changing their training processes. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our CORE yields significant gains on both effectiveness and generalization for RE. The source code is provided at: https://github.com/vanoracai/CoRE.

Pu Cheng, Juncheng Liu, Yunshen Long

Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present \textbf{PolyBench}, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked market states collected between February 6 and 12, 2026. Our multidimensional framework assesses directional accuracy, our proposed Confidence-Weighted Return (CWR), Annualized Percentage Yield (APY), and Sharpe ratio via realistic order-book execution simulation. The results reveal a pronounced performance divergence: only two of seven models achieve positive financial returns -- MiMo-V2-Flash at \textbf{17.6%} CWR and Gemini-3-Flash at 6.2% CWR -- while the remaining five incur losses despite uniformly high stated confidence. These findings highlight the gap between surface-level language fluency and genuine probabilistic reasoning under live market uncertainty, and establish PolyBench as a contamination-proof, financially-grounded evaluation standard for future LLM research. Our dataset and code available at \underline{\href{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}}.

Juncheng Liu, Bryan Hooi, Kenji Kawaguchi et al.

Recently, implicit graph neural networks (GNNs) have been proposed to capture long-range dependencies in underlying graphs. In this paper, we introduce and justify two weaknesses of implicit GNNs: the constrained expressiveness due to their limited effective range for capturing long-range dependencies, and their lack of ability to capture multiscale information on graphs at multiple resolutions. To show the limited effective range of previous implicit GNNs, We first provide a theoretical analysis and point out the intrinsic relationship between the effective range and the convergence of iterative equations used in these models. To mitigate the mentioned weaknesses, we propose a multiscale graph neural network with implicit layers (MGNNI) which is able to model multiscale structures on graphs and has an expanded effective range for capturing long-range dependencies. We conduct comprehensive experiments for both node classification and graph classification to show that MGNNI outperforms representative baselines and has a better ability for multiscale modeling and capturing of long-range dependencies.

Juncheng Liu, Zequn Sun, Bryan Hooi et al.

We study dangling-aware entity alignment in knowledge graphs (KGs), which is an underexplored but important problem. As different KGs are naturally constructed by different sets of entities, a KG commonly contains some dangling entities that cannot find counterparts in other KGs. Therefore, dangling-aware entity alignment is more realistic than the conventional entity alignment where prior studies simply ignore dangling entities. We propose a framework using mixed high-order proximities on dangling-aware entity alignment. Our framework utilizes both the local high-order proximity in a nearest neighbor subgraph and the global high-order proximity in an embedding space for both dangling detection and entity alignment. Extensive experiments with two evaluation settings shows that our framework more precisely detects dangling entities, and better aligns matchable entities. Further investigations demonstrate that our framework can mitigate the hubness problem on dangling-aware entity alignment.

Chenghao Liu, Taha Aksu, Juncheng Liu et al.

We introduce Moirai 2.0, a decoder-only time-series foundation model trained on a new corpus of 36M series. The model adopts quantile forecasting and multi-token prediction, improving both probabilistic accuracy and inference efficiency. On the Gift-Eval benchmark, it ranks among the top pretrained models while achieving a strong trade-off between accuracy, speed, and model size. Compared to Moirai 1.0, Moirai 2.0 replaces masked-encoder training, multi-patch inputs, and mixture-distribution outputs with a simpler decoder-only architecture, single patch, and quantile loss. Ablation studies isolate these changes -- showing that the decoder-only backbone along with recursive multi-quantile decoding contribute most to the gains. Additional experiments show that Moirai 2.0 outperforms larger models from the same family and exhibits robust domain-level results. In terms of efficiency and model size, Moirai 2.0 is twice as fast and thirty times smaller than its prior best version, Moirai 1.0-Large, while also performing better. Model performance plateaus with increasing parameter count and declines at longer horizons, motivating future work on data scaling and long-horizon modeling. We release code and evaluation details to support further research.

Taha Aksu, Gerald Woo, Juncheng Liu et al.

Time series foundation models excel in zero-shot forecasting, handling diverse tasks without explicit training. However, the advancement of these models has been hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce the General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation, GIFT-Eval, a pioneering benchmark aimed at promoting evaluation across diverse datasets. GIFT-Eval encompasses 23 datasets over 144,000 time series and 177 million data points, spanning seven domains, 10 frequencies, multivariate inputs, and prediction lengths ranging from short to long-term forecasts. To facilitate the effective pretraining and evaluation of foundation models, we also provide a non-leaking pretraining dataset containing approximately 230 billion data points. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of 17 baselines, which includes statistical models, deep learning models, and foundation models. We discuss each model in the context of various benchmark characteristics and offer a qualitative analysis that spans both deep learning and foundation models. We believe the insights from this analysis, along with access to this new standard zero-shot time series forecasting benchmark, will guide future developments in time series foundation models. Code, data, and the leaderboard can be found at https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/gift-eval .

Xu Liu, Juncheng Liu, Gerald Woo et al.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

Xu Liu, Taha Aksu, Juncheng Liu et al.

Time series analysis is crucial for understanding dynamics of complex systems. Recent advances in foundation models have led to task-agnostic Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) and Large Language Model-based Time Series Models (TSLLMs), enabling generalized learning and integrating contextual information. However, their success depends on large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which are challenging to build due to regulatory, diversity, quality, and quantity constraints. Synthetic data emerge as a viable solution, addressing these challenges by offering scalable, unbiased, and high-quality alternatives. This survey provides a comprehensive review of synthetic data for TSFMs and TSLLMs, analyzing data generation strategies, their role in model pretraining, fine-tuning, and evaluation, and identifying future research directions.

Juncheng Liu, Chenghao Liu, Gerald Woo et al.

Transformer-based models have emerged as powerful tools for multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). However, existing Transformer models often fall short of capturing both intricate dependencies across variate and temporal dimensions in MTS data. Some recent models are proposed to separately capture variate and temporal dependencies through either two sequential or parallel attention mechanisms. However, these methods cannot directly and explicitly learn the intricate inter-series and intra-series dependencies. In this work, we first demonstrate that these dependencies are very important as they usually exist in real-world data. To directly model these dependencies, we propose a transformer-based model UniTST containing a unified attention mechanism on the flattened patch tokens. Additionally, we add a dispatcher module which reduces the complexity and makes the model feasible for a potentially large number of variates. Although our proposed model employs a simple architecture, it offers compelling performance as shown in our extensive experiments on several datasets for time series forecasting.

Juncheng Liu, Kenji Kawaguchi, Bryan Hooi et al.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used for modelling graph-structured data in numerous applications. However, with their inherently finite aggregation layers, existing GNN models may not be able to effectively capture long-range dependencies in the underlying graphs. Motivated by this limitation, we propose a GNN model with infinite depth, which we call Efficient Infinite-Depth Graph Neural Networks (EIGNN), to efficiently capture very long-range dependencies. We theoretically derive a closed-form solution of EIGNN which makes training an infinite-depth GNN model tractable. We then further show that we can achieve more efficient computation for training EIGNN by using eigendecomposition. The empirical results of comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that EIGNN has a better ability to capture long-range dependencies than recent baselines, and consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, we show that our model is also more robust against both noise and adversarial perturbations on node features.

Liu Juncheng, McCane Brendan, Mills Steven

Autonomous 3D environment exploration is a fundamental task for various applications such as navigation. The goal of exploration is to investigate a new environment and build its occupancy map efficiently. In this paper, we propose a new method which grants an agent two intertwined options of behaviors: "look-around" and "frontier navigation". This is implemented by an option-critic architecture and trained by reinforcement learning algorithms. In each timestep, an agent produces an option and a corresponding action according to the policy. We also take advantage of macro-actions by incorporating classic path-planning techniques to increase training efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on two publicly available 3D environment datasets and the results show our method achieves higher coverage than competing techniques with better efficiency.

Xinjian Luo, Xiaokui Xiao, Yuncheng Wu et al.

InstaHide is a state-of-the-art mechanism for protecting private training images, by mixing multiple private images and modifying them such that their visual features are indistinguishable to the naked eye. In recent work, however, Carlini et al. show that it is possible to reconstruct private images from the encrypted dataset generated by InstaHide. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that Carlini et al.'s attack can be easily defeated by incorporating data augmentation into InstaHide. This leads to a natural question: is InstaHide with data augmentation secure? In this paper, we provide a negative answer to this question, by devising an attack for recovering private images from the outputs of InstaHide even when data augmentation is present. The basic idea is to use a comparative network to identify encrypted images that are likely to correspond to the same private image, and then employ a fusion-denoising network for restoring the private image from the encrypted ones, taking into account the effects of data augmentation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed attack in comparison to Carlini et al.'s attack.

Juncheng Liu, Yiwei Wang, Bryan Hooi et al.

Node classification on graphs is an important task in many practical domains. It usually requires labels for training, which can be difficult or expensive to obtain in practice. Given a budget for labelling, active learning aims to improve performance by carefully choosing which nodes to label. Previous graph active learning methods learn representations using labelled nodes and select some unlabelled nodes for label acquisition. However, they do not fully utilize the representation power present in unlabelled nodes. We argue that the representation power in unlabelled nodes can be useful for active learning and for further improving performance of active learning for node classification. In this paper, we propose a latent space clustering-based active learning framework for node classification (LSCALE), where we fully utilize the representation power in both labelled and unlabelled nodes. Specifically, to select nodes for labelling, our framework uses the K-Medoids clustering algorithm on a latent space based on a dynamic combination of both unsupervised features and supervised features. In addition, we design an incremental clustering module to avoid redundancy between nodes selected at different steps. Extensive experiments on five datasets show that our proposed framework LSCALE consistently and significantly outperforms the stateof-the-art approaches by a large margin.