Lucy G. Cheke

John Burden, Konstantinos Voudouris, Ryan Burnell et al. · cambridge

As machine learning models become more general, we need to characterise them in richer, more meaningful ways. We describe a method to infer the cognitive profile of a system from diverse experimental data. To do so, we introduce measurement layouts that model how task-instance features interact with system capabilities to affect performance. These features must be triangulated in complex ways to be able to infer capabilities from non-populational data -- a challenge for traditional psychometric and inferential tools. Using the Bayesian probabilistic programming library PyMC, we infer different cognitive profiles for agents in two scenarios: 68 actual contestants in the AnimalAI Olympics and 30 synthetic agents for O-PIAAGETS, an object permanence battery. We showcase the potential for capability-oriented evaluation.

Lexin Zhou, Pablo A. Moreno-Casares, Fernando Martínez-Plumed et al. · cambridge

We introduce the fundamental ideas and challenges of Predictable AI, a nascent research area that explores the ways in which we can anticipate key validity indicators (e.g., performance, safety) of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI ecosystems, and thus should be prioritised over performance. We formally characterise predictability, explore its most relevant components, illustrate what can be predicted, describe alternative candidates for predictors, as well as the trade-offs between maximising validity and predictability. To illustrate these concepts, we bring an array of illustrative examples covering diverse ecosystem configurations. Predictable AI is related to other areas of technical and non-technical AI research, but have distinctive questions, hypotheses, techniques and challenges. This paper aims to elucidate them, calls for identifying paths towards a landscape of predictably valid AI systems and outlines the potential impact of this emergent field.

Lorenzo Pacchiardi, Lucy G. Cheke, José Hernández-Orallo · cambridge

Predicting the performance of LLMs on individual task instances is essential to ensure their reliability in high-stakes applications. To do so, a possibility is to evaluate the considered LLM on a set of task instances and train an assessor to predict its performance based on features of the instances. However, this approach requires evaluating each new LLM on a sufficiently large set of task instances to train an assessor specific to it. In this work, we leverage the evaluation results of previously tested LLMs to reduce the number of evaluations required to predict the performance of a new LLM. In practice, we propose to test the new LLM on a small set of reference instances and train a generic assessor which predicts the performance of the LLM on an instance based on the performance of the former on the reference set and features of the instance of interest. We conduct empirical studies on HELM-Lite and KindsOfReasoning, a collection of existing reasoning datasets that we introduce, where we evaluate all instruction-fine-tuned OpenAI models until the January 2024 version of GPT4. When predicting performance on instances with the same distribution as those used to train the generic assessor, we find this achieves performance comparable to the LLM-specific assessors trained on the full set of instances. Additionally, we find that randomly selecting the reference instances performs as well as some advanced selection methods we tested. For out of distribution, however, no clear winner emerges and the overall performance is worse, suggesting that the inherent predictability of LLMs is low.

Jonathan Prunty, Seraphina Zhang, Patrick Quinn et al.

As multimodal language models (MLMs) are increasingly used in social and collaborative settings, it is crucial to evaluate their perspective-taking abilities. Existing benchmarks largely rely on text-based vignettes or static scene understanding, leaving visuospatial perspective-taking (VPT) underexplored. We adapt two evaluation tasks from human studies: the Director Task, assessing VPT in a referential communication paradigm, and the Rotating Figure Task, probing perspective-taking across angular disparities. Across tasks, MLMs show pronounced deficits in Level 2 VPT, which requires inhibiting one's own perspective to adopt another's. These results expose critical limitations in current MLMs' ability to represent and reason about alternative perspectives, with implications for their use in collaborative contexts.

Matteo G. Mecattaf, Ben Slater, Marko Tešić et al. · cambridge

As general-purpose tools, Large Language Models (LLMs) must often reason about everyday physical environments. In a question-and-answer capacity, understanding the interactions of physical objects may be necessary to give appropriate responses. Moreover, LLMs are increasingly used as reasoning engines in agentic systems, designing and controlling their action sequences. The vast majority of research has tackled this issue using static benchmarks, comprised of text or image-based questions about the physical world. However, these benchmarks do not capture the complexity and nuance of real-life physical processes. Here we advocate for a second, relatively unexplored, approach: 'embodying' the LLMs by granting them control of an agent within a 3D environment. We present the first embodied and cognitively meaningful evaluation of physical common-sense reasoning in LLMs. Our framework allows direct comparison of LLMs with other embodied agents, such as those based on Deep Reinforcement Learning, and human and non-human animals. We employ the Animal-AI (AAI) environment, a simulated 3D virtual laboratory, to study physical common-sense reasoning in LLMs. For this, we use the AAI Testbed, a suite of experiments that replicate laboratory studies with non-human animals, to study physical reasoning capabilities including distance estimation, tracking out-of-sight objects, and tool use. We demonstrate that state-of-the-art multi-modal models with no finetuning can complete this style of task, allowing meaningful comparison to the entrants of the 2019 Animal-AI Olympics competition and to human children. Our results show that LLMs are currently outperformed by human children on these tasks. We argue that this approach allows the study of physical reasoning using ecologically valid experiments drawn directly from cognitive science, improving the predictability and reliability of LLMs.

Lorenzo Pacchiardi, Marko Tesic, Lucy G. Cheke et al. · cambridge

The integrity of AI benchmarks is fundamental to accurately assess the capabilities of AI systems. The internal validity of these benchmarks - i.e., making sure they are free from confounding factors - is crucial for ensuring that they are measuring what they are designed to measure. In this paper, we explore a key issue related to internal validity: the possibility that AI systems can solve benchmarks in unintended ways, bypassing the capability being tested. This phenomenon, widely known in human and animal experiments, is often referred to as the 'Clever Hans' effect, where tasks are solved using spurious cues, often involving much simpler processes than those putatively assessed. Previous research suggests that language models can exhibit this behaviour as well. In several older Natural Language Processing (NLP) benchmarks, individual $n$-grams like "not" have been found to be highly predictive of the correct labels, and supervised NLP models have been shown to exploit these patterns. In this work, we investigate the extent to which simple $n$-grams extracted from benchmark instances can be combined to predict labels in modern multiple-choice benchmarks designed for LLMs, and whether LLMs might be using such $n$-gram patterns to solve these benchmarks. We show how simple classifiers trained on these $n$-grams can achieve high scores on several benchmarks, despite lacking the capabilities being tested. Additionally, we provide evidence that modern LLMs might be using these superficial patterns to solve benchmarks. This suggests that the internal validity of these benchmarks may be compromised and caution should be exercised when interpreting LLM performance results on them.

Konstantinos Voudouris, Ibrahim Alhas, Wout Schellaert et al. · cambridge

The Animal-AI Environment is a unique game-based research platform designed to facilitate collaboration between the artificial intelligence and comparative cognition research communities. In this paper, we present the latest version of the Animal-AI Environment, outlining several major features that make the game more engaging for humans and more complex for AI systems. These features include interactive buttons, reward dispensers, and player notifications, as well as an overhaul of the environment's graphics and processing for significant improvements in agent training time and quality of the human player experience. We provide detailed guidance on how to build computational and behavioural experiments with the Animal-AI Environment. We present results from a series of agents, including the state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning agent Dreamer-v3, on newly designed tests and the Animal-AI Testbed of 900 tasks inspired by research in the field of comparative cognition. The Animal-AI Environment offers a new approach for modelling cognition in humans and non-human animals, and for building biologically inspired artificial intelligence.

John Burden, Jonathan Prunty, Ben Slater et al.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) achieve strong performance on vision-language tasks, yet their visual processing is opaque. Most black-box evaluations measure task accuracy, but reveal little about underlying mechanisms. Drawing on cognitive psychology, we adapt classic visual search paradigms -- originally developed to study human perception -- to test whether MLLMs exhibit the ``pop-out'' effect, where salient visual features are detected independently of distractor set size. Using controlled experiments targeting colour, size and lighting features, we find that advanced MLLMs exhibit human-like pop-out effects in colour or size-based disjunctive (single feature) search, as well as capacity limits for conjunctive (multiple feature) search. We also find evidence to suggest that MLLMs, like humans, incorporate natural scene priors such as lighting direction into object representations. We reinforce our findings using targeted fine-tuning and mechanistic interpretability analyses. Our work shows how visual search can serve as a cognitively grounded diagnostic tool for evaluating perceptual capabilities in MLLMs.

Danaja Rutar, Alva Markelius, Konstantinos Voudouris et al. · cambridge

One of the core components of our world models is 'intuitive physics' - an understanding of objects, space, and causality. This capability enables us to predict events, plan action and navigate environments, all of which rely on a composite sense of objecthood. Despite its importance, there is no single, unified account of objecthood, though multiple theoretical frameworks provide insights. In the first part of this paper, we present a comprehensive overview of the main theoretical frameworks in objecthood research - Gestalt psychology, enactive cognition, and developmental psychology - and identify the core capabilities each framework attributes to object understanding, as well as what functional roles they play in shaping world models in biological agents. Given the foundational role of objecthood in world modelling, understanding objecthood is also essential in AI. In the second part of the paper, we evaluate how current AI paradigms approach and test objecthood capabilities compared to those in cognitive science. We define an AI paradigm as a combination of how objecthood is conceptualised, the methods used for studying objecthood, the data utilised, and the evaluation techniques. We find that, whilst benchmarks can detect that AI systems model isolated aspects of objecthood, the benchmarks cannot detect when AI systems lack functional integration across these capabilities, not solving the objecthood challenge fully. Finally, we explore novel evaluation approaches that align with the integrated vision of objecthood outlined in this paper. These methods are promising candidates for advancing from isolated object capabilities toward general-purpose AI with genuine object understanding in real-world contexts.

Konstantinos Voudouris, Lucy G. Cheke, Eric Schulz

Researchers are increasingly subjecting artificial intelligence systems to psychological testing. But to rigorously compare their cognitive capacities with humans and other animals, we must avoid both over- and under-stating our similarities and differences. By embracing a comparative approach, we can integrate AI cognition research into the broader cognitive sciences.