Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Stratis Tsirtsis, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Whenever a clinician reflects on the efficacy of a sequence of treatment decisions for a patient, they may try to identify critical time steps where, had they made different decisions, the patient's health would have improved. While recent methods at the intersection of causal inference and reinforcement learning promise to aid human experts, as the clinician above, to retrospectively analyze sequential decision making processes, they have focused on environments with finitely many discrete states. However, in many practical applications, the state of the environment is inherently continuous in nature. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of discrete actions and continuous states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and a broad class of bijective structural causal models. Building upon this characterization, we formalize the problem of finding counterfactually optimal action sequences and show that, in general, we cannot expect to solve it in polynomial time. Then, we develop a search method based on the $A^*$ algorithm that, under a natural form of Lipschitz continuity of the environment's dynamics, is guaranteed to return the optimal solution to the problem. Experiments on real clinical data show that our method is very efficient in practice, and it has the potential to offer interesting insights for sequential decision making tasks.

Ivi Chatzi, Nina Corvelo Benz, Eleni Straitouri et al.

"Sure, I am happy to generate a story for you: Captain Lyra stood at the helm of her trusty ship, the Maelstrom's Fury, gazing out at the endless sea. [...] Lyra's eyes welled up with tears as she realized the bitter truth - she had sacrificed everything for fleeting riches, and lost the love of her crew, her family, and herself." Although this story, generated by a large language model, is captivating, one may wonder -- how would the story have unfolded if the model had chosen "Captain Maeve" as the protagonist instead? We cannot know. State-of-the-art large language models are stateless -- they maintain no internal memory or state. Given a prompt, they generate a sequence of tokens as an output using an autoregressive process. As a consequence, they cannot reason about counterfactual alternatives to tokens they have generated in the past. In this work, our goal is to enhance them with this functionality. To this end, we develop a causal model of token generation that builds upon the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Our model allows any large language model to perform counterfactual token generation at almost no cost in comparison with vanilla token generation, it is embarrassingly simple to implement, and it does not require any fine-tuning nor prompt engineering. We implement our model on Llama 3 8B-Instruct and Ministral-8B-Instruct and conduct a qualitative and a quantitative analysis of counterfactually generated text. We conclude with a demonstrative application of counterfactual token generation for bias detection, unveiling interesting insights about the model of the world constructed by large language models.

Adrian Arnaiz-Rodriguez, Nina Corvelo Benz, Suhas Thejaswi et al.

Data-driven algorithmic matching systems promise to help human decision makers make better matching decisions in a wide variety of high-stakes application domains, such as healthcare and social service provision. However, existing systems are not designed to achieve human-AI complementarity: decisions made by a human using an algorithmic matching system are not necessarily better than those made by the human or by the algorithm alone. Our work aims to address this gap. To this end, we propose collaborative matching (comatch), a data-driven algorithmic matching system that takes a collaborative approach: rather than making all the matching decisions for a matching task like existing systems, it selects only the decisions that it is the most confident in, deferring the rest to the human decision maker. In the process, comatch optimizes how many decisions it makes and how many it defers to the human decision maker to provably maximize performance. We conduct a large-scale human subject study with $800$ participants to validate the proposed approach. The results demonstrate that the matching outcomes produced by comatch outperform those generated by either human participants or by algorithmic matching on their own. The data gathered in our human subject study and an implementation of our system are available as open source at https://github.com/Networks-Learning/human-AI-complementarity-matching.

Nina Corvelo Benz, Eleni Straitouri, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

It is widely agreed that when AI models assist decision-makers in high-stakes domains by predicting an outcome of interest, they should communicate the confidence of their predictions. However, empirical evidence suggests that decision-makers often struggle to determine when to trust a prediction based solely on this communicated confidence. In this context, recent theoretical and empirical work suggests a positive correlation between the utility of AI-assisted decision-making and the degree of alignment between the AI confidence and the decision-makers' confidence in their own predictions. Crucially, these findings do not yet elucidate the extent to which this alignment influences the complexity of learning to make optimal decisions through repeated interactions. In this paper, we address this question in the canonical case of binary predictions and binary decisions. We first show that this problem is equivalent to a two-armed online contextual learning problem with full feedback, and establish a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{|H| \cdot |B| \cdot T} )$ on the expected regret any learner can attain, where $H$ and $B$ denote the sets of human and AI confidence values. We then demonstrate that, under perfect alignment between AI and human confidence, a learner can attain an expected regret of $O(\sqrt{|H| \cdot T\log T})$ and, when $\sqrt{|H|} = O(\log T)$ and $B$ is countable, a non-trivial generalization of the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality improves the regret bound to $O(\sqrt{T\log T})$. Taken together, these results reveal that alignment can reduce the complexity of learning to make decisions with AI assistance. Experiments on real data from two different human-subject studies where participants solve simple decision-making tasks assisted by AI models show that our theoretical results are robust to violations of perfect alignment.

Eleni Straitouri, Stratis Tsirtsis, Ander Artola Velasco et al.

Recent work has shown that, in classification tasks, it is possible to design decision support systems that do not require human experts to understand when to cede agency to a classifier or when to exercise their own agency to achieve complementarity$\unicode{x2014}$experts using these systems make more accurate predictions than those made by the experts or the classifier alone. The key principle underpinning these systems reduces to adaptively controlling the level of human agency, by design. Can we use the same principle to achieve complementarity in sequential decision making tasks? In this paper, we answer this question affirmatively. We develop a decision support system that uses a pre-trained AI agent to narrow down the set of actions a human can take to a subset, and then asks the human to take an action from this action set. Along the way, we also introduce a bandit algorithm that leverages the smoothness properties of the action sets provided by our system to efficiently optimize the level of human agency. To evaluate our decision support system, we conduct a large-scale human subject study ($n = 1{,}600$) where participants play a wildfire mitigation game. We find that participants who play the game supported by our system outperform those who play on their own by $\sim$$30$% and the AI agent used by our system by $>$$2$%, even though the AI agent largely outperforms participants playing without support. We have made available the data gathered in our human subject study as well as an open source implementation of our system at https://github.com/Networks-Learning/narrowing-action-choices .

Lars Lorch, Heiner Kremer, William Trouleau et al.

Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to capture this aspect by neither representing the sites visited by individuals explicitly nor characterizing disease transmission as a function of individual mobility patterns. In this work, we introduce a temporal point process modeling framework that specifically represents visits to the sites where individuals get in contact and infect each other. Under our model, the number of infections caused by an infectious individual naturally emerges to be overdispersed. Using an efficient sampling algorithm, we demonstrate how to estimate the transmission rate of infectious individuals at the sites they visit and in their households using Bayesian optimization and longitudinal case data. Simulations using fine-grained and publicly available demographic data and site locations from Bern, Switzerland showcase the flexibility of our framework. To facilitate research and analyses of other cities and regions, we release an open-source implementation of our framework.

Ander Artola Velasco, Dimitrios Rontogiannis, Stratis Tsirtsis et al.

Test-time compute has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). However, this strategy has in turn increased how much users pay cloud-based providers offering LLM-as-a-service, since providers charge users for the amount of test-time compute they use to generate an output. In our work, we show that the market of LLM-as-a-service is socially inefficient: providers have a financial incentive to increase the amount of test-time compute, even if this increase contributes little to the quality of the outputs. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a reverse second-price auction mechanism where providers bid their offered price and (expected) quality for the opportunity to serve a user, and users pay proportionally to the marginal value generated by the winning provider relative to the second-highest bidder. To illustrate and complement our theoretical results, we conduct experiments with multiple instruct models from the $\texttt{Llama}$ and $\texttt{Qwen}$ families, as well as reasoning models distilled from $\texttt{DeepSeek-R1}$, on math and science benchmark datasets.

Ander Artola Velasco, Stratis Tsirtsis, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Regulatory approval of products in high-stakes domains such as drug development requires statistical evidence of safety and efficacy through large-scale randomized controlled trials. However, the high financial cost of these trials may deter developers who lack absolute certainty in their product's efficacy, ultimately stifling the development of `moonshot' products that could offer high social utility. To address this inefficiency, in this paper, we introduce a statistical protocol for experimentation where the product developer (the agent) conducts a randomized controlled trial sequentially and the regulator (the principal) partially subsidizes its cost. By modeling the protocol using a belief Markov decision process, we show that the agent's optimal strategy can be found efficiently using dynamic programming. Further, we show that the social utility is a piecewise linear and convex function over the subsidy level the principal selects, and thus the socially optimal subsidy can also be found efficiently using divide-and-conquer. Simulation experiments using publicly available data on antibiotic development and approval demonstrate that our statistical protocol can be used to increase social utility by more than $35$$\%$ relative to standard, non-sequential protocols.

Nina Corvelo Benz, Stratis Tsirtsis, Eleni Straitouri et al.

State of the art large language models rely on randomization to respond to a prompt. As an immediate consequence, a model may respond differently to the same prompt if asked multiple times. In this work, we argue that the evaluation and ranking of large language models should control for the randomization underpinning their functioning. Our starting point is the development of a causal model for coupled autoregressive generation, which allows different large language models to sample responses with the same source of randomness. Building upon our causal model, we first show that, on evaluations based on benchmark datasets, coupled autoregressive generation leads to the same conclusions as vanilla autoregressive generation but using provably fewer samples. However, we further show that, on evaluations based on (human) pairwise comparisons, coupled and vanilla autoregressive generation can surprisingly lead to different rankings when comparing more than two models, even with an infinite amount of samples. This suggests that the apparent advantage of a model over others in existing evaluation protocols may not be genuine but rather confounded by the randomness inherent to the generation process. To illustrate and complement our theoretical results, we conduct experiments with several large language models from the Llama, Mistral and Qwen families. We find that, across multiple benchmark datasets, coupled autoregressive generation requires up to 75% fewer samples to reach the same conclusions as vanilla autoregressive generation. Further, we find that the win-rates derived from pairwise comparisons by a strong large language model to prompts from the LMSYS Chatbot Arena platform differ under coupled and vanilla autoregressive generation.

Ander Artola Velasco, Stratis Tsirtsis, Nastaran Okati et al.

State-of-the-art large language models require specialized hardware and substantial energy to operate. As a consequence, cloud-based services that provide access to large language models have become very popular. In these services, the price users pay for an output provided by a model depends on the number of tokens the model uses to generate it -- they pay a fixed price per token. In this work, we show that this pricing mechanism creates a financial incentive for providers to strategize and misreport the (number of) tokens a model used to generate an output, and users cannot prove, or even know, whether a provider is overcharging them. However, we also show that, if an unfaithful provider is obliged to be transparent about the generative process used by the model, misreporting optimally without raising suspicion is hard. Nevertheless, as a proof-of-concept, we develop an efficient heuristic algorithm that allows providers to significantly overcharge users without raising suspicion. Crucially, we demonstrate that the cost of running the algorithm is lower than the additional revenue from overcharging users, highlighting the vulnerability of users under the current pay-per-token pricing mechanism. Further, we show that, to eliminate the financial incentive to strategize, a pricing mechanism must price tokens linearly on their character count. While this makes a provider's profit margin vary across tokens, we introduce a simple prescription under which the provider who adopts such an incentive-compatible pricing mechanism can maintain the average profit margin they had under the pay-per-token pricing mechanism. Along the way, to illustrate and complement our theoretical results, we conduct experiments with several large language models from the $\texttt{Llama}$, $\texttt{Gemma}$ and $\texttt{Ministral}$ families, and input prompts from the LMSYS Chatbot Arena platform.

Seungeon Lee, Nina Corvelo Benz, Suhas Thejaswi et al.

Resettlement agencies have started to adopt data-driven algorithmic matching to match refugees to locations using employment rate as a measure of utility. Given a pool of refugees, data-driven algorithmic matching utilizes a classifier to predict the probability that each refugee would find employment at any given location. Then, it uses the predicted probabilities to estimate the expected utility of all possible placement decisions. Finally, it finds the placement decisions that maximize the predicted utility by solving a maximum weight bipartite matching problem. In this work, we argue that, using existing solutions, there may be pools of refugees for which data-driven algorithmic matching is (counterfactually) harmful -- it would have achieved lower utility than a given default policy used in the past, had it been used. Then, we develop a post-processing algorithm that, given placement decisions made by a default policy on a pool of refugees and their employment outcomes, solves an inverse~matching problem to minimally modify the predictions made by a given classifier. Under these modified predictions, the optimal matching policy that maximizes predicted utility on the pool is guaranteed to be not harmful. Further, we introduce a Transformer model that, given placement decisions made by a default policy on multiple pools of refugees and their employment outcomes, learns to modify the predictions made by a classifier so that the optimal matching policy that maximizes predicted utility under the modified predictions on an unseen pool of refugees is less likely to be harmful than under the original predictions. Experiments on simulated resettlement processes using synthetic refugee data created from a variety of publicly available data suggest that our methodology may be effective in making algorithmic placement decisions that are less likely to be harmful than existing solutions.

Ander Artola Velasco, Stratis Tsirtsis, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Millions of users rely on a market of cloud-based services to obtain access to state-of-the-art large language models. However, it has been very recently shown that the de facto pay-per-token pricing mechanism used by providers creates a financial incentive for them to strategize and misreport the (number of) tokens a model used to generate an output. In this paper, we develop an auditing framework based on martingale theory that enables a trusted third-party auditor who sequentially queries a provider to detect token misreporting. Crucially, we show that our framework is guaranteed to always detect token misreporting, regardless of the provider's (mis-)reporting policy, and not falsely flag a faithful provider as unfaithful with high probability. To validate our auditing framework, we conduct experiments across a wide range of (mis-)reporting policies using several large language models from the $\texttt{Llama}$, $\texttt{Gemma}$ and $\texttt{Ministral}$ families, and input prompts from a popular crowdsourced benchmarking platform. The results show that our framework detects an unfaithful provider after observing fewer than $\sim 70$ reported outputs, while maintaining the probability of falsely flagging a faithful provider below $α= 0.05$.

Eleni Straitouri, Adish Singla, Vahid Balazadeh Meresht et al.

Methods to learn under algorithmic triage have predominantly focused on supervised learning settings where each decision, or prediction, is independent of each other. Under algorithmic triage, a supervised learning model predicts a fraction of the instances and humans predict the remaining ones. In this work, we take a first step towards developing reinforcement learning models that are optimized to operate under algorithmic triage. To this end, we look at the problem through the framework of options and develop a two-stage actor-critic method to learn reinforcement learning models under triage. The first stage performs offline, off-policy training using human data gathered in an environment where the human has operated on their own. The second stage performs on-policy training to account for the impact that switching may have on the human policy, which may be difficult to anticipate from the above human data. Extensive simulation experiments in a synthetic car driving task show that the machine models and the triage policies trained using our two-stage method effectively complement human policies and outperform those provided by several competitive baselines.

Stratis Tsirtsis, Abir De, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which multiple, dependent actions are taken sequentially over time. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of actions and states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Building upon this characterization, we formally state the problem of finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes. In our problem formulation, the counterfactual explanation specifies an alternative sequence of actions differing in at most k actions from the observed sequence that could have led the observed process realization to a better outcome. Then, we introduce a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming to build a counterfactual policy that is guaranteed to always provide the optimal counterfactual explanation on every possible realization of the counterfactual environment dynamics. We validate our algorithm using both synthetic and real data from cognitive behavioral therapy and show that the counterfactual explanations our algorithm finds can provide valuable insights to enhance sequential decision making under uncertainty.

Stratis Tsirtsis, Abir De, Lars Lorch et al.

Testing is recommended for all close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 patients. However, existing group testing methods are oblivious to the circumstances of contagion provided by contact tracing. Here, we build upon a well-known semi-adaptive pool testing method, Dorfman's method with imperfect tests, and derive a simple group testing method based on dynamic programming that is specifically designed to use the information provided by contact tracing. Experiments using a variety of reproduction numbers and dispersion levels, including those estimated in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, show that the pools found using our method result in a significantly lower number of tests than those found using standard Dorfman's method, especially when the number of contacts of an infected individual is small. Moreover, our results show that our method can be more beneficial when the secondary infections are highly overdispersed.

Nastaran Okati, Abir De, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Multiple lines of evidence suggest that predictive models may benefit from algorithmic triage. Under algorithmic triage, a predictive model does not predict all instances but instead defers some of them to human experts. However, the interplay between the prediction accuracy of the model and the human experts under algorithmic triage is not well understood. In this work, we start by formally characterizing under which circumstances a predictive model may benefit from algorithmic triage. In doing so, we also demonstrate that models trained for full automation may be suboptimal under triage. Then, given any model and desired level of triage, we show that the optimal triage policy is a deterministic threshold rule in which triage decisions are derived deterministically by thresholding the difference between the model and human errors on a per-instance level. Building upon these results, we introduce a practical gradient-based algorithm that is guaranteed to find a sequence of triage policies and predictive models of increasing performance. Experiments on a wide variety of supervised learning tasks using synthetic and real data from two important applications -- content moderation and scientific discovery -- illustrate our theoretical results and show that the models and triage policies provided by our gradient-based algorithm outperform those provided by several competitive baselines.

Pierfrancesco Ingo, Nichole Boufford, Ming Cheng Jiang et al.

Epidemics like the recent COVID-19 require proactive contact tracing and epidemiological analysis to predict and subsequently contain infection transmissions. The proactive measures require large scale data collection, which simultaneously raise concerns regarding users' privacy. Digital contact tracing systems developed in response to COVID-19 either collected extensive data for effective analytics at the cost of users' privacy or collected minimal data for the sake of user privacy but were ineffective in predicting and mitigating the epidemic risks. We present Silmarillion--in preparation for future epidemics--a system that reconciles user's privacy with rich data collection for higher utility. In Silmarillion, user devices record Bluetooth encounters with beacons installed in strategic locations. The beacons further enrich the encounters with geo-location, location type, and environment conditions at the beacon installation site. This enriched information enables detailed scientific analysis of disease parameters as well as more accurate personalized exposure risk notification. At the same time, Silmarillion provides privacy to all participants and non-participants at the same level as that guaranteed in digital and manual contact tracing. We describe the design of Silmarillion and its communication protocols that ensure user privacy and data security. We also evaluate a prototype of Silmarillion built using low-end IoT boards, showing that the power consumption and user latencies are adequately low for a practical deployment. Finally, we briefly report on a small-scale deployment within a university building as a proof-of-concept.

Utkarsh Upadhyay, Graham Lancashire, Christoph Moser et al.

Machine learning has typically focused on developing models and algorithms that would ultimately replace humans at tasks where intelligence is required. In this work, rather than replacing humans, we focus on unveiling the potential of machine learning to improve how people learn and remember factual material. To this end, we perform a large-scale randomized controlled trial with thousands of learners from a popular learning app in the area of mobility. After controlling for the length and frequency of study, we find that learners whose study sessions are optimized using machine learning remember the content over $\sim$67% longer than those whose study sessions are generated using two alternative heuristics. Our randomized controlled trial also reveals that the learners whose study sessions are optimized using machine learning are $\sim$50% more likely to return to the app within 4-7 days.

Abir De, Nastaran Okati, Ali Zarezade et al.

Most supervised learning models are trained for full automation. However, their predictions are sometimes worse than those by human experts on some specific instances. Motivated by this empirical observation, our goal is to design classifiers that are optimized to operate under different automation levels. More specifically, we focus on convex margin-based classifiers and first show that the problem is NP-hard. Then, we further show that, for support vector machines, the corresponding objective function can be expressed as the difference of two functions f = g - c, where g is monotone, non-negative and γ-weakly submodular, and c is non-negative and modular. This representation allows a recently introduced deterministic greedy algorithm, as well as a more efficient randomized variant of the algorithm, to enjoy approximation guarantees at solving the problem. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data from several applications in medical diagnosis illustrate our theoretical findings and demonstrate that, under human assistance, supervised learning models trained to operate under different automation levels can outperform those trained for full automation as well as humans operating alone.

Stratis Tsirtsis, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial ones. However, there has been little discussion on the possibility that individuals may use the above counterfactual explanations to invest effort strategically and maximize their chances of receiving a beneficial decision. In this paper, our goal is to find policies and counterfactual explanations that are optimal in terms of utility in such a strategic setting. We first show that, given a pre-defined policy, the problem of finding the optimal set of counterfactual explanations is NP-hard. Then, we show that the corresponding objective is nondecreasing and satisfies submodularity and this allows a standard greedy algorithm to enjoy approximation guarantees. In addition, we further show that the problem of jointly finding both the optimal policy and set of counterfactual explanations reduces to maximizing a non-monotone submodular function. As a result, we can use a recent randomized algorithm to solve the problem, which also offers approximation guarantees. Finally, we demonstrate that, by incorporating a matroid constraint into the problem formulation, we can increase the diversity of the optimal set of counterfactual explanations and incentivize individuals across the whole spectrum of the population to self improve. Experiments on synthetic and real lending and credit card data illustrate our theoretical findings and show that the counterfactual explanations and decision policies found by our algorithms achieve higher utility than several competitive baselines.

Vahid Balazadeh, Abir De, Adish Singla et al.

Reinforcement learning agents have been mostly developed and evaluated under the assumption that they will operate in a fully autonomous manner -- they will take all actions. In this work, our goal is to develop algorithms that, by learning to switch control between agents, allow existing reinforcement learning agents to operate under different automation levels. To this end, we first formally define the problem of learning to switch control among agents in a team via a 2-layer Markov decision process. Then, we develop an online learning algorithm that uses upper confidence bounds on the agents' policies and the environment's transition probabilities to find a sequence of switching policies. The total regret of our algorithm with respect to the optimal switching policy is sublinear in the number of learning steps and, whenever multiple teams of agents operate in a similar environment, our algorithm greatly benefits from maintaining shared confidence bounds for the environments' transition probabilities and it enjoys a better regret bound than problem-agnostic algorithms. Simulation experiments in an obstacle avoidance task illustrate our theoretical findings and demonstrate that, by exploiting the specific structure of the problem, our proposed algorithm is superior to problem-agnostic algorithms.

Abir De, Nastaran Okati, Paramita Koley et al.

Decisions are increasingly taken by both humans and machine learning models. However, machine learning models are currently trained for full automation -- they are not aware that some of the decisions may still be taken by humans. In this paper, we take a first step towards the development of machine learning models that are optimized to operate under different automation levels. More specifically, we first introduce the problem of ridge regression under human assistance and show that it is NP-hard. Then, we derive an alternative representation of the corresponding objective function as a difference of nondecreasing submodular functions. Building on this representation, we further show that the objective is nondecreasing and satisfies $α$-submodularity, a recently introduced notion of approximate submodularity. These properties allow a simple and efficient greedy algorithm to enjoy approximation guarantees at solving the problem. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data from two important applications -- medical diagnosis and content moderation-demonstrate that our algorithm outsources to humans those samples in which the prediction error of the ridge regression model would have been the highest if it had to make a prediction, it outperforms several competitive baselines, and its performance is robust with respect to several design choices and hyperparameters used in the experiments.

Abir De, Adish Singla, Utkarsh Upadhyay et al.

Whenever a social media user decides to share a story, she is typically pleased to receive likes, comments, shares, or, more generally, feedback from her followers. As a result, she may feel compelled to use the feedback she receives to (re-)estimate her followers' preferences and decides which stories to share next to receive more (positive) feedback. Under which conditions can she succeed? In this work, we first look into this problem from a theoretical perspective and then provide a set of practical algorithms to identify and characterize such behavior in social media. More specifically, we address the above problem from the viewpoint of sequential decision making and utility maximization. For a wide variety of utility functions, we first show that, to succeed, a user needs to actively trade off exploitation-- sharing stories which lead to more (positive) feedback--and exploration-- sharing stories to learn about her followers' preferences. However, exploration is not necessary if a user utilizes the feedback her followers provide to other users in addition to the feedback she receives. Then, we develop a utility estimation framework for observation data, which relies on statistical hypothesis testing to determine whether a user utilizes the feedback she receives from each of her followers to decide what to post next. Experiments on synthetic data illustrate our theoretical findings and show that our estimation framework is able to accurately recover users' underlying utility functions. Experiments on several real datasets gathered from Twitter and Reddit reveal that up to 82% (43%) of the Twitter (Reddit) users in our datasets do use the feedback they receive to decide what to post next.

Stratis Tsirtsis, Behzad Tabibian, Moein Khajehnejad et al.

We are witnessing an increasing use of data-driven predictive models to inform decisions. As decisions have implications for individuals and society, there is increasing pressure on decision makers to be transparent about their decision policies. At the same time, individuals may use knowledge, gained by transparency, to invest effort strategically in order to maximize their chances of receiving a beneficial decision. Our goal is to find decision policies that are optimal in terms of utility in such a strategic setting. To this end, we first characterize how strategic investment of effort by individuals leads to a change in the feature distribution. Using this characterization, we first show that, in general, we cannot expect to find optimal decision policies in polynomial time and there are cases in which deterministic policies are suboptimal. Then, we demonstrate that, if the cost individuals pay to change their features satisfies a natural monotonicity assumption, we can narrow down the search for the optimal policy to a particular family of decision policies with a set of desirable properties, which allow for a highly effective polynomial time heuristic search algorithm using dynamic programming. Finally, under no assumptions on the cost individuals pay to change their features, we develop an iterative search algorithm that is guaranteed to find locally optimal decision policies also in polynomial time. Experiments on synthetic and real credit card data illustrate our theoretical findings and show that the decision policies found by our algorithms achieve higher utility than those that do not account for strategic behavior.

Niki Kilbertus, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Bernhard Schölkopf et al.

Consequential decisions are increasingly informed by sophisticated data-driven predictive models. However, to consistently learn accurate predictive models, one needs access to ground truth labels. Unfortunately, in practice, labels may only exist conditional on certain decisions---if a loan is denied, there is not even an option for the individual to pay back the loan. Hence, the observed data distribution depends on how decisions are being made. In this paper, we show that in this selective labels setting, learning a predictor directly only from available labeled data is suboptimal in terms of both fairness and utility. To avoid this undesirable behavior, we propose to directly learn decision policies that maximize utility under fairness constraints and thereby take into account how decisions affect which data is observed in the future. Our results suggest the need for a paradigm shift in the context of fair machine learning from the currently prevalent idea of simply building predictive models from a single static dataset via risk minimization, to a more interactive notion of "learning to decide". In particular, such policies should not entirely neglect part of the input space, drawing connections to explore/exploit tradeoffs in reinforcement learning, data missingness, and potential outcomes in causal inference. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data illustrate the favorable properties of learning to decide in terms of utility and fairness.

Khashayar Gatmiry, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

The standard greedy algorithm has been recently shown to enjoy approximation guarantees for constrained non-submodular nondecreasing set function maximization. While these recent results allow to better characterize the empirical success of the greedy algorithm, they are only applicable to simple cardinality constraints. In this paper, we study the problem of maximizing a non-submodular nondecreasing set function subject to a general matroid constraint. We first show that the standard greedy algorithm offers an approximation factor of $\frac{0.4 γ^{2}}{\sqrt{γr} + 1}$, where $γ$ is the submodularity ratio of the function and $r$ is the rank of the matroid. Then, we show that the same greedy algorithm offers a constant approximation factor of $(1 + 1/(1-α))^{-1}$, where $α$ is the generalized curvature of the function. In addition, we demonstrate that these approximation guarantees are applicable to several real-world applications in which the submodularity ratio and the generalized curvature can be bounded. Finally, we show that our greedy algorithm does achieve a competitive performance in practice using a variety of experiments on synthetic and real-world data.

Lars Lorch, Abir De, Samir Bhatt et al.

We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps. In contrast to previous work, this novel perspective is particularly well-suited to make use of fine-grained data about disease outbreaks and lets us overcome the shortcomings of current control strategies. Our control strategy resorts to treatment intensities to determine who to treat and when to do so to minimize the amount of infected individuals over time. Preliminary experiments with synthetic data show that our control strategy consistently outperforms several alternatives. Looking into the future, we believe our methodology provides a promising step towards the development of practical data-driven control strategies of epidemic processes.

Utkarsh Upadhyay, Abir De, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

In a wide variety of applications, humans interact with a complex environment by means of asynchronous stochastic discrete events in continuous time. Can we design online interventions that will help humans achieve certain goals in such asynchronous setting? In this paper, we address the above problem from the perspective of deep reinforcement learning of marked temporal point processes, where both the actions taken by an agent and the feedback it receives from the environment are asynchronous stochastic discrete events characterized using marked temporal point processes. In doing so, we define the agent's policy using the intensity and mark distribution of the corresponding process and then derive a flexible policy gradient method, which embeds the agent's actions and the feedback it receives into real-valued vectors using deep recurrent neural networks. Our method does not make any assumptions on the functional form of the intensity and mark distribution of the feedback and it allows for arbitrarily complex reward functions. We apply our methodology to two different applications in personalized teaching and viral marketing and, using data gathered from Duolingo and Twitter, we show that it may be able to find interventions to help learners and marketers achieve their goals more effectively than alternatives.

Utkarsh Upadhyay, Abir De, Aasish Pappu et al.

In an increasingly polarized world, demagogues who reduce complexity down to simple arguments based on emotion are gaining in popularity. Are opinions and online discussions falling into demagoguery? In this work, we aim to provide computational tools to investigate this question and, by doing so, explore the nature and complexity of online discussions and their space of opinions, uncovering where each participant lies. More specifically, we present a modeling framework to construct latent representations of opinions in online discussions which are consistent with human judgements, as measured by online voting. If two opinions are close in the resulting latent space of opinions, it is because humans think they are similar. Our modeling framework is theoretically grounded and establishes a surprising connection between opinions and voting models and the sign-rank of a matrix. Moreover, it also provides a set of practical algorithms to both estimate the dimension of the latent space of opinions and infer where opinions expressed by the participants of an online discussion lie in this space. Experiments on a large dataset from Yahoo! News, Yahoo! Finance, Yahoo! Sports, and the Newsroom app suggest that unidimensional opinion models may often be unable to accurately represent online discussions, provide insights into human judgements and opinions, and show that our framework is able to circumvent language nuances such as sarcasm or humor by relying on human judgements instead of textual analysis.

Ali Zarezade, Abir De, Utkarsh Upadhyay et al.

User engagement in online social networking depends critically on the level of social activity in the corresponding platform--the number of online actions, such as posts, shares or replies, taken by their users. Can we design data-driven algorithms to increase social activity? At a user level, such algorithms may increase activity by helping users decide when to take an action to be more likely to be noticed by their peers. At a network level, they may increase activity by incentivizing a few influential users to take more actions, which in turn will trigger additional actions by other users. In this paper, we model social activity using the framework of marked temporal point processes, derive an alternate representation of these processes using stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps and, exploiting this alternate representation, develop two efficient online algorithms with provable guarantees to steer social activity both at a user and at a network level. In doing so, we establish a previously unexplored connection between optimal control of jump SDEs and doubly stochastic marked temporal point processes, which is of independent interest. Finally, we experiment both with synthetic and real data gathered from Twitter and show that our algorithms consistently steer social activity more effectively than the state of the art.

Bidisha Samanta, Abir De, Gourhari Jana et al.

Deep generative models have been praised for their ability to learn smooth latent representation of images, text, and audio, which can then be used to generate new, plausible data. However, current generative models are unable to work with molecular graphs due to their unique characteristics-their underlying structure is not Euclidean or grid-like, they remain isomorphic under permutation of the nodes labels, and they come with a different number of nodes and edges. In this paper, we first propose a novel variational autoencoder for molecular graphs, whose encoder and decoder are specially designed to account for the above properties by means of several technical innovations. Moreover, in contrast with the state of the art, our decoder is able to provide the spatial coordinates of the atoms of the molecules it generates. Then, we develop a gradient-based algorithm to optimize the decoder of our model so that it learns to generate molecules that maximize the value of certain property of interest and, given a molecule of interest, it is able to optimize the spatial configuration of its atoms for greater stability. Experiments reveal that our variational autoencoder can discover plausible, diverse and novel molecules more effectively than several state of the art models. Moreover, for several properties of interest, our optimized decoder is able to identify molecules with property values 121% higher than those identified by several state of the art methods based on Bayesian optimization and reinforcement learning

Behzad Tabibian, Utkarsh Upadhyay, Abir De et al.

Spaced repetition is a technique for efficient memorization which uses repeated, spaced review of content to improve long-term retention. Can we find the optimal reviewing schedule to maximize the benefits of spaced repetition? In this paper, we introduce a novel, flexible representation of spaced repetition using the framework of marked temporal point processes and then address the above question as an optimal control problem for stochastic differential equations with jumps. For two well-known human memory models, we show that the optimal reviewing schedule is given by the recall probability of the content to be learned. As a result, we can then develop a simple, scalable online algorithm, Memorize, to sample the optimal reviewing times. Experiments on both synthetic and real data gathered from Duolingo, a popular language-learning online platform, show that our algorithm may be able to help learners memorize more effectively than alternatives.

Jooyeon Kim, Behzad Tabibian, Alice Oh et al.

Online social networking sites are experimenting with the following crowd-powered procedure to reduce the spread of fake news and misinformation: whenever a user is exposed to a story through her feed, she can flag the story as misinformation and, if the story receives enough flags, it is sent to a trusted third party for fact checking. If this party identifies the story as misinformation, it is marked as disputed. However, given the uncertain number of exposures, the high cost of fact checking, and the trade-off between flags and exposures, the above mentioned procedure requires careful reasoning and smart algorithms which, to the best of our knowledge, do not exist to date. In this paper, we first introduce a flexible representation of the above procedure using the framework of marked temporal point processes. Then, we develop a scalable online algorithm, Curb, to select which stories to send for fact checking and when to do so to efficiently reduce the spread of misinformation with provable guarantees. In doing so, we need to solve a novel stochastic optimal control problem for stochastic differential equations with jumps, which is of independent interest. Experiments on two real-world datasets gathered from Twitter and Weibo show that our algorithm may be able to effectively reduce the spread of fake news and misinformation.

Utkarsh Upadhyay, Isabel Valera, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

Learning from the crowd has become increasingly popular in the Web and social media. There is a wide variety of crowdlearning sites in which, on the one hand, users learn from the knowledge that other users contribute to the site, and, on the other hand, knowledge is reviewed and curated by the same users using assessment measures such as upvotes or likes. In this paper, we present a probabilistic modeling framework of crowdlearning, which uncovers the evolution of a user's expertise over time by leveraging other users' assessments of her contributions. The model allows for both off-site and on-site learning and captures forgetting of knowledge. We then develop a scalable estimation method to fit the model parameters from millions of recorded learning and contributing events. We show the effectiveness of our model by tracing activity of ~25 thousand users in Stack Overflow over a 4.5 year period. We find that answers with high knowledge value are rare. Newbies and experts tend to acquire less knowledge than users in the middle range. Prolific learners tend to be also proficient contributors that post answers with high knowledge value.

Nan Du, Yingyu Liang, Maria-Florina Balcan et al.

A typical viral marketing model identifies influential users in a social network to maximize a single product adoption assuming unlimited user attention, campaign budgets, and time. In reality, multiple products need campaigns, users have limited attention, convincing users incurs costs, and advertisers have limited budgets and expect the adoptions to be maximized soon. Facing these user, monetary, and timing constraints, we formulate the problem as a submodular maximization task in a continuous-time diffusion model under the intersection of a matroid and multiple knapsack constraints. We propose a randomized algorithm estimating the user influence in a network ($|\mathcal{V}|$ nodes, $|\mathcal{E}|$ edges) to an accuracy of $ε$ with $n=\mathcal{O}(1/ε^2)$ randomizations and $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(n|\mathcal{E}|+n|\mathcal{V}|)$ computations. By exploiting the influence estimation algorithm as a subroutine, we develop an adaptive threshold greedy algorithm achieving an approximation factor $k_a/(2+2 k)$ of the optimal when $k_a$ out of the $k$ knapsack constraints are active. Extensive experiments on networks of millions of nodes demonstrate that the proposed algorithms achieve the state-of-the-art in terms of effectiveness and scalability.

Behzad Tabibian, Isabel Valera, Mehrdad Farajtabar et al.

Online knowledge repositories typically rely on their users or dedicated editors to evaluate the reliability of their content. These evaluations can be viewed as noisy measurements of both information reliability and information source trustworthiness. Can we leverage these noisy evaluations, often biased, to distill a robust, unbiased and interpretable measure of both notions? In this paper, we argue that the temporal traces left by these noisy evaluations give cues on the reliability of the information and the trustworthiness of the sources. Then, we propose a temporal point process modeling framework that links these temporal traces to robust, unbiased and interpretable notions of information reliability and source trustworthiness. Furthermore, we develop an efficient convex optimization procedure to learn the parameters of the model from historical traces. Experiments on real-world data gathered from Wikipedia and Stack Overflow show that our modeling framework accurately predicts evaluation events, provides an interpretable measure of information reliability and source trustworthiness, and yields interesting insights about real-world events.

Mohammad Reza Karimi, Erfan Tavakoli, Mehrdad Farajtabar et al.

Many users in online social networks are constantly trying to gain attention from their followers by broadcasting posts to them. These broadcasters are likely to gain greater attention if their posts can remain visible for a longer period of time among their followers' most recent feeds. Then when to post? In this paper, we study the problem of smart broadcasting using the framework of temporal point processes, where we model users feeds and posts as discrete events occurring in continuous time. Based on such continuous-time model, then choosing a broadcasting strategy for a user becomes a problem of designing the conditional intensity of her posting events. We derive a novel formula which links this conditional intensity with the visibility of the user in her followers' feeds. Furthermore, by exploiting this formula, we develop an efficient convex optimization framework for the when-to-post problem. Our method can find broadcasting strategies that reach a desired visibility level with provable guarantees. We experimented with data gathered from Twitter, and show that our framework can consistently make broadcasters' post more visible than alternatives.

Hadi Daneshmand, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Le Song et al.

Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we need? Are there some network structures which are more difficult than others to recover? Can we design efficient inference algorithms with provable guarantees? Despite the increasing availability of cascade data and methods for inferring networks from these data, a thorough theoretical understanding of the above questions remains largely unexplored in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the network structure inference problem for a general family of continuous-time diffusion models using an $l_1$-regularized likelihood maximization framework. We show that, as long as the cascade sampling process satisfies a natural incoherence condition, our framework can recover the correct network structure with high probability if we observe $O(d^3 \log N)$ cascades, where $d$ is the maximum number of parents of a node and $N$ is the total number of nodes. Moreover, we develop a simple and efficient soft-thresholding inference algorithm, which we use to illustrate the consequences of our theoretical results, and show that our framework outperforms other alternatives in practice.