Brian Cho

Brian M Cho, Ana-Roxana Pop, Kyra Gan et al.

When modifying existing policies in high-risk settings, it is often necessary to ensure with high certainty that the newly proposed policy improves upon a baseline, such as the status quo. In this work, we consider the problem of safe policy improvement, where one only adopts a new policy if it is deemed to be better than the specified baseline with at least pre-specified probability. We focus on threshold policies, a ubiquitous class of policies with applications in economics, healthcare, and digital advertising. Existing methods rely on potentially underpowered safety checks and limit the opportunities for finding safe improvements, so too often they must revert to the baseline to maintain safety. We overcome these issues by leveraging the most powerful safety test in the asymptotic regime and allowing for multiple candidates to be tested for improvement over the baseline. We show that in adversarial settings, our approach controls the rate of adopting a policy worse than the baseline to the pre-specified error level, even in moderate sample sizes. We present CSPI and CSPI-MT, two novel heuristics for selecting cutoff(s) to maximize the policy improvement from baseline. We demonstrate through both synthetic and external datasets that our approaches improve both the detection rates of safe policies and the realized improvement, particularly under stringent safety requirements and low signal-to-noise conditions.

Brian Cho, Youngbin Jang, Jaewoong Yoon

Neural based approaches to automatic evaluation of subjective responses have shown superior performance and efficiency compared to traditional rule-based and feature engineering oriented solutions. However, it remains unclear whether the suggested neural solutions are sufficient replacements of human raters as we find recent works do not properly account for rubric items that are essential for automated essay scoring during model training and validation. In this paper, we propose a series of data augmentation operations that train and test an automated scoring model to learn features and functions overlooked by previous works while still achieving state-of-the-art performance in the Automated Student Assessment Prize dataset.

Brian Cho, Kyra Gan, Nathan Kallus

We propose a novel nonparametric sequential test for composite hypotheses for means of multiple data streams. Our proposed method, \emph{peeking with expectation-based averaged capital} (PEAK), builds upon the testing-by-betting framework and provides a non-asymptotic $α$-level test across any stopping time. Our contributions are two-fold: (1) we propose a novel betting scheme and provide theoretical guarantees on type-I error control, power, and asymptotic growth rate/$e$-power in the setting of a single data stream; (2) we introduce PEAK, a generalization of this betting scheme to multiple streams, that (i) avoids using wasteful union bounds via averaging, (ii) is a test of power one under mild regularity conditions on the sampling scheme of the streams, and (iii) reduces computational overhead when applying the testing-as-betting approaches for pure-exploration bandit problems. We illustrate the practical benefits of PEAK using both synthetic and real-world HeartSteps datasets. Our experiments show that PEAK provides up to an 85\% reduction in the number of samples before stopping compared to existing stopping rules for pure-exploration bandit problems, and matches the performance of state-of-the-art sequential tests while improving upon computational complexity.

Brian Cho, Dominik Meier, Kyra Gan et al.

In multi-armed bandits, the tasks of reward maximization and pure exploration are often at odds with each other. The former focuses on exploiting arms with the highest means, while the latter may require constant exploration across all arms. In this work, we focus on good arm identification (GAI), a practical bandit inference objective that aims to label arms with means above a threshold as quickly as possible. We show that GAI can be efficiently solved by combining a reward-maximizing sampling algorithm with a novel nonparametric anytime-valid sequential test for labeling arm means. We first establish that our sequential test maintains error control under highly nonparametric assumptions and asymptotically achieves the minimax optimal e-power, a notion of power for anytime-valid tests. Next, by pairing regret-minimizing sampling schemes with our sequential test, we provide an approach that achieves minimax optimal stopping times for labeling arms with means above a threshold, under an error probability constraint. Our empirical results validate our approach beyond the minimax setting, reducing the expected number of samples for all stopping times by at least 50% across both synthetic and real-world settings.

Brian M Cho, Aurélien Bibaut, Nathan Kallus

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or enhance the precision of estimating key parameters. Current approaches for inference after adaptive sampling either rely on asymptotic normality under restricted experiment designs or underpowered martingale concentration inequalities that lead to weak power in practice. To bypass these limitations, we propose a simulation-based approach for conducting hypothesis tests and constructing confidence intervals for arm specific means and their differences. Our simulation-based approach uses positively biased nuisances to generate additional trajectories of the experiment, which we call \textit{simulation with optimism}. Using these simulations, we characterize the distribution potentially non-normal sample mean test statistic to conduct inference. We provide guarantees for (i) asymptotic type I error control, (ii) convergence of our confidence intervals, and (iii) asymptotic strong consistency of our estimator over a wide variety of common bandit designs. Our empirical results show that our approach achieves the desired coverage while reducing confidence interval widths by up to 50%, with drastic improvements for arms not targeted by the design.