Hao Peng

Yong Guan, Hao Peng, Xiaozhi Wang et al. · tsinghua

Future event prediction (FEP) is a long-standing and crucial task in the world, as understanding the evolution of events enables early risk identification, informed decision-making, and strategic planning. Existing work typically treats event prediction as classification tasks and confines the outcomes of future events to a fixed scope, such as yes/no questions, candidate set, and taxonomy, which is difficult to include all possible outcomes of future events. In this paper, we introduce OpenEP (an Open-Ended Future Event Prediction task), which generates flexible and diverse predictions aligned with real-world scenarios. This is mainly reflected in two aspects: firstly, the predictive questions are diverse, covering different stages of event development and perspectives; secondly, the outcomes are flexible, without constraints on scope or format. To facilitate the study of this task, we construct OpenEPBench, an open-ended future event prediction dataset. For question construction, we pose questions from seven perspectives, including location, time, event development, event outcome, event impact, event response, and other, to facilitate an in-depth analysis and understanding of the comprehensive evolution of events. For outcome construction, we collect free-form text containing the outcomes as ground truth to provide semantically complete and detail-enriched outcomes. Furthermore, we propose StkFEP, a stakeholder-enhanced future event prediction framework, that incorporates event characteristics for open-ended settings. Our method extracts stakeholders involved in events to extend questions to gather diverse information. We also collect historically events that are relevant and similar to the question to reveal potential evolutionary patterns. Experiment results indicate that accurately predicting future events in open-ended settings is challenging for existing LLMs.

Hao Peng, Xiaozhi Wang, Chunyang Li et al.

Knowledge editing aims at updating knowledge of large language models (LLMs) to prevent them from becoming outdated. Existing work edits LLMs at the level of factual knowledge triplets. However, natural knowledge updates in the real world come from the occurrences of new events rather than direct changes in factual triplets. In this paper, we propose a new task setting: event-level knowledge editing, which directly edits new events into LLMs and improves over conventional triplet-level editing on (1) Efficiency. A single event edit leads to updates in multiple entailed knowledge triplets. (2) Completeness. Beyond updating factual knowledge, event-level editing also requires considering the event influences and updating LLMs' knowledge about future trends. We construct a high-quality event-level editing benchmark ELKEN, consisting of 1,515 event edits, 6,449 questions about factual knowledge, and 10,150 questions about future tendencies. We systematically evaluate the performance of various knowledge editing methods and LLMs on this benchmark. We find that ELKEN poses significant challenges to existing knowledge editing approaches. Our codes and dataset are publicly released to facilitate further research.

Hao Peng, Jianxin Li, Zheng Wang et al.

We present Luce, the first life-long predictive model for automated property valuation. Luce addresses two critical issues of property valuation: the lack of recent sold prices and the sparsity of house data. It is designed to operate on a limited volume of recent house transaction data. As a departure from prior work, Luce organizes the house data in a heterogeneous information network (HIN) where graph nodes are house entities and attributes that are important for house price valuation. We employ a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to extract the spatial information from the HIN for house-related data like geographical locations, and then use a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network to model the temporal dependencies for house transaction data over time. Unlike prior work, Luce can make effective use of the limited house transactions data in the past few months to update valuation information for all house entities within the HIN. By providing a complete and up-to-date house valuation dataset, Luce thus massively simplifies the downstream valuation task for the targeting properties. We demonstrate the benefit of Luce by applying it to large, real-life datasets obtained from the Toronto real estate market. Extensive experimental results show that Luce not only significantly outperforms prior property valuation methods but also often reaches and sometimes exceeds the valuation accuracy given by independent experts when using the actual realization price as the ground truth.