Zachary Terner

Brian Finley, Anthony M Caruso, Justin C Doty et al.

We develop formal privacy mechanisms for releasing statistics from data with many outlying values, such as income data. These mechanisms ensure that a per-record differential privacy guarantee degrades slowly in the protected records' influence on the statistics being released. Formal privacy mechanisms generally add randomness, or "noise," to published statistics. If a noisy statistic's distribution changes little with the addition or deletion of a single record in the underlying dataset, an attacker looking at this statistic will find it plausible that any particular record was present or absent, preserving the records' privacy. More influential records -- those whose addition or deletion would change the statistics' distribution more -- typically suffer greater privacy loss. The per-record differential privacy framework quantifies these record-specific privacy guarantees, but existing mechanisms let these guarantees degrade rapidly (linearly or quadratically) with influence. While this may be acceptable in cases with some moderately influential records, it results in unacceptably high privacy losses when records' influence varies widely, as is common in economic data. We develop mechanisms with privacy guarantees that instead degrade as slowly as logarithmically with influence. These mechanisms allow for the accurate, unbiased release of statistics, while providing meaningful protection for highly influential records. As an example, we consider the private release of sums of unbounded establishment data such as payroll, where our mechanisms extend meaningful privacy protection even to very large establishments. We evaluate these mechanisms empirically and demonstrate their utility.

Zachary Terner, Alexander Petersen, Yuedong Wang

We introduce Smart Bayes, a new classification framework that bridges generative and discriminative modeling by integrating likelihood-ratio-based generative features into a logistic-regression-style discriminative classifier. From the generative perspective, Smart Bayes relaxes the fixed unit weights of Naive Bayes by allowing data-driven coefficients on density-ratio features. From a discriminative perspective, it constructs transformed inputs as marginal log-density ratios that explicitly quantify how much more likely each feature value is under one class than another, thereby providing predictors with stronger class separation than the raw covariates. To support this framework, we develop a spline-based estimator for univariate log-density ratios that is flexible, robust, and computationally efficient. Through extensive simulations and real-data studies, Smart Bayes often outperforms both logistic regression and Naive Bayes. Our results highlight the potential of hybrid approaches that exploit generative structure to enhance discriminative performance.

David Willmes, Nick Krall, James Tanis et al.

With billions of people facing moderate or severe food insecurity, the resilience of the global food supply will be of increasing concern due to the effects of climate change and geopolitical events. In this paper we describe a framework to better identify food security hotspots using a combination of remote sensing, deep learning, crop yield modeling, and causal modeling of the food distribution system. While we feel that the methods are adaptable to other regions of the world, we focus our analysis on the wheat breadbasket of northern India, which supplies a large percentage of the world's population. We present a quantitative analysis of deep learning domain adaptation methods for wheat farm identification based on curated remote sensing data from France. We model climate change impacts on crop yields using the existing crop yield modeling tool WOFOST and we identify key drivers of crop simulation error using a longitudinal penalized functional regression. A description of a system dynamics model of the food distribution system in India is also presented, along with results of food insecurity identification based on seeding this model with the predicted crop yields.