Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Daniel Csillag, Claudio José Struchiner, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to Z-estimation problems such as inference of means and quantiles. In this paper, we apply ideas of prediction-powered inference to e-values. By doing so, we inherit all the usual benefits of e-values -- such as anytime-validity, post-hoc validity and versatile sequential inference -- as well as greatly expand the set of inferences achievable in a prediction-powered manner. In particular, we show that every inference procedure that can be framed in terms of e-values has a prediction-powered counterpart, given by our method. We showcase the effectiveness of our framework across a wide range of inference tasks, from simple hypothesis testing and confidence intervals to more involved procedures for change-point detection and causal discovery, which were out of reach of previous techniques. Our approach is modular and easily integrable into existing algorithms, making it a compelling choice for practical applications.

Daniel Csillag, Claudio José Struchiner, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Many algorithms have been recently proposed for causal machine learning. Yet, there is little to no theory on their quality, especially considering finite samples. In this work, we propose a theory based on generalization bounds that provides such guarantees. By introducing a novel change-of-measure inequality, we are able to tightly bound the model loss in terms of the deviation of the treatment propensities over the population, which we show can be empirically limited. Our theory is fully rigorous and holds even in the face of hidden confounding and violations of positivity. We demonstrate our bounds on semi-synthetic and real data, showcasing their remarkable tightness and practical utility.

Daniel Csillag, Claudio José Struchiner, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break. In this work we propose a new framework, Strategic Conformal Prediction, which is capable of robust uncertainty quantification in such a setting. Strategic Conformal Prediction is backed by a series of theoretical guarantees spanning marginal coverage, training-conditional coverage, tightness and robustness to misspecification that hold in a distribution-free manner. Experimental analysis further validates our method, showing its remarkable effectiveness in face of arbitrary strategic alterations, whereas other methods break.

Juliano Genari, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

The extraction of relevant data from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is crucial to identifying symptoms and automating epidemiological surveillance processes. By harnessing the vast amount of unstructured text in EHRs, we can detect patterns that indicate the onset of disease outbreaks, enabling faster, more targeted public health responses. Our proposed framework provides a flexible and efficient solution for mining data from unstructured texts, significantly reducing the need for extensive manual labeling by specialists. Experiments show that our framework achieving strong performance with as few as 200 manually labeled texts, even for complex classification problems. Additionally, our approach can function with simple lightweight models, achieving competitive and occasionally even better results compared to more resource-intensive deep learning models. This capability not only accelerates processing times but also preserves patient privacy, as the data can be processed on weaker on-site hardware rather than being transferred to external systems. Our methodology, therefore, offers a practical, scalable, and privacy-conscious approach to real-time epidemiological monitoring, equipping health institutions to respond rapidly and effectively to emerging health threats.

Daniel Csillag, Pedro Dall'Antonia, Claudio José Struchiner et al.

Prediction-powered inference is a recent methodology for the safe use of black-box ML models to impute missing data, strengthening inference of statistical parameters. However, many applications require strong properties besides valid inference, such as privacy, robustness or validity under continuous distribution shifts; deriving prediction-powered methods with such guarantees is generally an arduous process, and has to be done case by case. In this paper, we resolve this issue by connecting prediction-powered inference with conformal prediction: by performing imputation through a calibrated conformal set-predictor, we attain validity while achieving additional guarantees in a natural manner. We instantiate our procedure for the inference of means, Z- and M-estimation, as well as e-values and e-value-based procedures. Furthermore, in the case of e-values, ours is the first general prediction-powered procedure that operates off-line. We demonstrate these advantages by applying our method on private and time-series data. Both tasks are nontrivial within the standard prediction-powered framework but become natural under our method.

Eduardo Adame, Daniel Csillag, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

The increasing use of generative ML foundation models for image restoration tasks such as super-resolution calls for robust and interpretable uncertainty quantification methods. We address this need by presenting a novel approach based on conformal prediction techniques to create a 'confidence mask' capable of reliably and intuitively communicating where the generated image can be trusted. Our method is adaptable to any black-box generative model, including those locked behind an opaque API, requires only easily attainable data for calibration, and is highly customizable via the choice of a local image similarity metric. We prove strong theoretical guarantees for our method that span fidelity error control (according to our local image similarity metric), reconstruction quality, and robustness in the face of data leakage. Finally, we empirically evaluate these results and establish our method's solid performance.