Siyu Zhao

Xingyu Zhang, Siyu Zhao, Zeen Song et al.

Long-term time series forecasting is a long-standing challenge in various applications. A central issue in time series forecasting is that methods should expressively capture long-term dependency. Furthermore, time series forecasting methods should be flexible when applied to different scenarios. Although Fourier analysis offers an alternative to effectively capture reusable and periodic patterns to achieve long-term forecasting in different scenarios, existing methods often assume high-frequency components represent noise and should be discarded in time series forecasting. However, we conduct a series of motivation experiments and discover that the role of certain frequencies varies depending on the scenarios. In some scenarios, removing high-frequency components from the original time series can improve the forecasting performance, while in others scenarios, removing them is harmful to forecasting performance. Therefore, it is necessary to treat the frequencies differently according to specific scenarios. To achieve this, we first reformulate the time series forecasting problem as learning a transfer function of each frequency in the Fourier domain. Further, we design Frequency Dynamic Fusion (FreDF), which individually predicts each Fourier component, and dynamically fuses the output of different frequencies. Moreover, we provide a novel insight into the generalization ability of time series forecasting and propose the generalization bound of time series forecasting. Then we prove FreDF has a lower bound, indicating that FreDF has better generalization ability. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple benchmark datasets and ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of FreDF. The code is available at https://github.com/Zh-XY22/FreDF.

Xingyu Zhang, Wenwen Qiang, Siyu Zhao et al.

Most existing multivariate time series forecasting methods adopt an all-to-all paradigm that feeds all variable histories into a unified model to predict their future values without distinguishing their individual roles. However, this undifferentiated paradigm makes it difficult to identify variable-specific causal influences and often entangles causally relevant information with spurious correlations. To address this limitation, we propose an all-to-one forecasting paradigm that predicts each target variable separately. Specifically, we first construct a Structural Causal Model from observational data and then, for each target variable, we partition the historical sequence into four sub-segments according to the inferred causal structure: endogenous, direct causal, collider causal, and spurious correlation. The prediction relies solely on the first three causally relevant sub-segments, while the spurious correlation sub-segment is excluded. Furthermore, we propose Causal Informed Transformer (CAIFormer), a novel forecasting model comprising three components: Endogenous Sub-segment Prediction Block, Direct Causal Sub-segment Prediction Block, and Collider Causal Sub-segment Prediction Block, which process the endogenous, direct causal, and collider causal sub-segments, respectively. Their outputs are then combined to produce the final prediction. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the CAIFormer.

Zeen Song, Siyu Zhao, Xingyu Zhang et al.

Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) has achieved remarkable success, but its performance can degrade when fine-tuned in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. We model the prediction process using a Structural Causal Model (SCM) and show that the causal mechanism involving both invariant and variant factors in training environments differs from that in test environments. In contrast, the causal mechanism with solely invariant factors remains consistent across environments. We theoretically prove the existence of a linear mapping from CLIP embeddings to invariant factors, which can be estimated using interventional data. Additionally, we provide a condition to guarantee low OOD risk of the invariant predictor. Based on these insights, we propose the Invariant Causal Mechanism of CLIP (CLIP-ICM) framework. CLIP-ICM involves collecting interventional data, estimating a linear projection matrix, and making predictions within the invariant subspace. Experiments on several OOD datasets show that CLIP-ICM significantly improves the performance of CLIP. Our method offers a simple but powerful enhancement, boosting the reliability of CLIP in real-world applications.