Fabio Pavirani

Fabio Pavirani, Bert Claessens, Pierre Pinson et al.

Effective scheduling in the energy sector is essential to ensure the reliable operation of electrical grids and their connected assets by, for instance, optimizing the dispatch of generation units and storage systems. An effective planning strategy must (a) accommodate advanced and potentially non-linear system models -- exploiting the increasing data availability of modern grids, and (b) explicitly handle uncertainties arising, for instance, from the integration of renewable energy sources. While existing approaches can address either non-linearity (e.g., Monte Carlo Tree Search) or uncertainty (e.g., stochastic mathematical optimization), there is a lack of planning techniques capable of addressing both challenges simultaneously. To bridge this gap, we propose a Stochastic Scenario-Structured Tree Search (S3TS) algorithm that explicitly represents uncertainty through scenario trees while enabling the integration of advanced non-linear models. We evaluate S3TS on a simulated demand response signal publication problem, largely mimicking the imbalance settlement mechanism in Belgium. The results demonstrate near-optimal performance in linear, analytically tractable settings, with costs within 14% of the mathematically optimal solution conditioned to the scenario trees. In highly non-linear scenarios, S3TS significantly outperforms baseline methods, achieving cost reductions of up to 51% and 5.4% compared to a myopic algorithm and deterministic MCTS, respectively.

Celle Hendrickx, Fabio Pavirani, Chris Develder

The growing share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in modern power systems increases both grid imbalances and frequency deviations, reinforcing the need for ancillary services such as Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) and passive balancing. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are well-suited for these services, but prior research typically relies on uniform FCR bids that remain constant throughout the control period. Such static bids fail to fully exploit BESS flexibility, as they do not balance the trade-off between reserving energy for FCR delivery and using it for imbalance arbitrage, limiting the achievable value in value-stacking settings. To address this limitation, we propose a two-stage control framework for the European context that introduces non-uniform FCR bids. In the first stage, we derive a time-varying bid sequence using data-driven Monte Carlo (MC) optimization. In the second stage, a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agent leverages the residual flexibility for real-time imbalance trading while proactively managing the State of Energy (SoE) to ensure compliance with FCR requirements. The framework is presented as a proof of concept, highlighting the potential benefits of time-varying bidding strategies. By incorporating daily cycle budgets and time-varying reserve commitments, our approach achieves a 7.56% profit increase compared to uniform baselines. These results show that non-uniform bidding can unlock additional value by more effectively aligning reserve obligations with rapidly changing imbalance opportunities.

Fabio Pavirani, Gargya Gokhale, Bert Claessens et al.

To reduce global carbon emissions and limit climate change, controlling energy consumption in buildings is an important piece of the puzzle. Here, we specifically focus on using a demand response (DR) algorithm to limit the energy consumption of a residential building's heating system while respecting user's thermal comfort. In that domain, Reinforcement learning (RL) methods have been shown to be quite effective. One such RL method is Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), which has achieved impressive success in playing board games (go, chess). A particular advantage of MCTS is that its decision tree structure naturally allows to integrate exogenous constraints (e.g., by trimming branches that violate them), while conventional RL solutions need more elaborate techniques (e.g., indirectly by adding penalties in the cost/reward function, or through a backup controller that corrects constraint-violating actions). The main aim of this paper is to study the adoption of MCTS for building control, since this (to the best of our knowledge) has remained largely unexplored. A specific property of MCTS is that it needs a simulator component that can predict subsequent system states, based on actions taken. A straightforward data-driven solution is to use black-box neural networks (NNs). We will however extend a Physics-informed Neural Network (PiNN) model to deliver multi-timestep predictions, and show the benefit it offers in terms of lower prediction errors ($-$32\% MAE) as well as better MCTS performance ($-$4\% energy cost, $+$7\% thermal comfort) compared to a black-box NN. A second contribution will be to extend a vanilla MCTS version to adopt the ideas applied in AlphaZero (i.e., using learned prior and value functions and an action selection heuristic) to obtain lower computational costs while maintaining control performance.

Fabio Pavirani, Jonas Van Gompel, Seyed Soroush Karimi Madahi et al.

The growing reliance on renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, has introduced challenges due to their uncontrollable production. This complicates maintaining the electrical grid balance, prompting some transmission system operators in Western Europe to implement imbalance tariffs that penalize unsustainable power deviations. These tariffs create an implicit demand response framework to mitigate grid instability. Yet, several challenges limit active participation. In Belgium, for example, imbalance prices are only calculated at the end of each 15-minute settlement period, creating high risk due to price uncertainty. This risk is further amplified by the inherent volatility of imbalance prices, discouraging participation. Although transmission system operators provide minute-based price predictions, the system imbalance volatility makes accurate price predictions challenging to obtain and requires sophisticated techniques. Moreover, publishing price estimates can prompt participants to adjust their schedules, potentially affecting the system balance and the final price, adding further complexity. To address these challenges, we propose a Monte Carlo Tree Search method that publishes accurate imbalance prices while accounting for potential response actions. Our approach models the system dynamics using a neural network forecaster and a cluster of virtual batteries controlled by reinforcement learning agents. Compared to Belgium's current publication method, our technique improves price accuracy by 20.4% under ideal conditions and by 12.8% in more realistic scenarios. This research addresses an unexplored, yet crucial problem, positioning this paper as a pioneering work in analyzing the potential of more advanced imbalance price publishing techniques.