Kui Zhao

Kui Zhao, Siyang Wu, Chang Liu et al.

Food security has grown in significance due to the changing climate and its warming effects. To support the rising demand for agricultural products and to minimize the negative impact of climate change and mass cultivation, precision agriculture has become increasingly important for crop cultivation. This study employs deep learning and pixel-based machine learning methods to accurately segment lavender fields for precision agriculture, utilizing various spectral band combinations extracted from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Our fine-tuned final model, a U-Net architecture, can achieve a Dice coefficient of 0.8324. Additionally, our investigation highlights the unexpected efficacy of the pixel-based method and the RGB spectral band combination in this task.

Zebang Zhang, Kui Zhao, Kai Huang et al.

The economic and banking importance of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector is well recognized in contemporary society. Business credit loans are very important for the operation of SMEs, and the revenue is a key indicator of credit limit management. Therefore, it is very beneficial to construct a reliable revenue forecasting model. If the uncertainty of an enterprise's revenue forecasting can be estimated, a more proper credit limit can be granted. Natural gradient boosting approach, which estimates the uncertainty of prediction by a multi-parameter boosting algorithm based on the natural gradient. However, its original implementation is not easy to scale into big data scenarios, and computationally expensive compared to state-of-the-art tree-based models (such as XGBoost). In this paper, we propose a Scalable Natural Gradient Boosting Machines that is simple to implement, readily parallelizable, interpretable and yields high-quality predictive uncertainty estimates. According to the characteristics of revenue distribution, we derive an uncertainty quantification function. We demonstrate that our method can distinguish between samples that are accurate and inaccurate on revenue forecasting of SMEs. What's more, interpretability can be naturally obtained from the model, satisfying the financial needs.

Kui Zhao, Junhao Hua, Ling Yan et al.

While marketing budget allocation has been studied for decades in traditional business, nowadays online business brings much more challenges due to the dynamic environment and complex decision-making process. In this paper, we present a novel unified framework for marketing budget allocation. By leveraging abundant data, the proposed data-driven approach can help us to overcome the challenges and make more informed decisions. In our approach, a semi-black-box model is built to forecast the dynamic market response and an efficient optimization method is proposed to solve the complex allocation task. First, the response in each market-segment is forecasted by exploring historical data through a semi-black-box model, where the capability of logit demand curve is enhanced by neural networks. The response model reveals relationship between sales and marketing cost. Based on the learned model, budget allocation is then formulated as an optimization problem, and we design efficient algorithms to solve it in both continuous and discrete settings. Several kinds of business constraints are supported in one unified optimization paradigm, including cost upper bound, profit lower bound, or ROI lower bound. The proposed framework is easy to implement and readily to handle large-scale problems. It has been successfully applied to many scenarios in Alibaba Group. The results of both offline experiments and online A/B testing demonstrate its effectiveness.

Kui Zhao, Yuechuan Li, Chi Zhang et al.

Although Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) has been a powerful tool for modeling sequential data, its performance is inadequate when processing sequences with multiple patterns. In this paper, we address this challenge by introducing a novel mixture layer and constructing an adaptive RNN. The mixture layer augmented RNN (termed as M-RNN) partitions patterns in training sequences into several clusters and stores the principle patterns as prototype vectors of components in a mixture model. By leveraging the mixture layer, the proposed method can adaptively update states according to the similarities between encoded inputs and prototype vectors, leading to a stronger capacity in assimilating sequences with multiple patterns. Moreover, our approach can be further extended by taking advantage of prior knowledge about data. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Kui Zhao, Yuechuan Li, Zhaoqian Shuai et al.

Many machine intelligence techniques are developed in E-commerce and one of the most essential components is the representation of IDs, including user ID, item ID, product ID, store ID, brand ID, category ID etc. The classical encoding based methods (like one-hot encoding) are inefficient in that it suffers sparsity problems due to its high dimension, and it cannot reflect the relationships among IDs, either homogeneous or heterogeneous ones. In this paper, we propose an embedding based framework to learn and transfer the representation of IDs. As the implicit feedbacks of users, a tremendous amount of item ID sequences can be easily collected from the interactive sessions. By jointly using these informative sequences and the structural connections among IDs, all types of IDs can be embedded into one low-dimensional semantic space. Subsequently, the learned representations are utilized and transferred in four scenarios: (i) measuring the similarity between items, (ii) transferring from seen items to unseen items, (iii) transferring across different domains, (iv) transferring across different tasks. We deploy and evaluate the proposed approach in Hema App and the results validate its effectiveness.