Weiqing Liu

Yuchen Fang, Zhenggang Tang, Kan Ren et al.

Order execution is a fundamental task in quantitative finance, aiming at finishing acquisition or liquidation for a number of trading orders of the specific assets. Recent advance in model-free reinforcement learning (RL) provides a data-driven solution to the order execution problem. However, the existing works always optimize execution for an individual order, overlooking the practice that multiple orders are specified to execute simultaneously, resulting in suboptimality and bias. In this paper, we first present a multi-agent RL (MARL) method for multi-order execution considering practical constraints. Specifically, we treat every agent as an individual operator to trade one specific order, while keeping communicating with each other and collaborating for maximizing the overall profits. Nevertheless, the existing MARL algorithms often incorporate communication among agents by exchanging only the information of their partial observations, which is inefficient in complicated financial market. To improve collaboration, we then propose a learnable multi-round communication protocol, for the agents communicating the intended actions with each other and refining accordingly. It is optimized through a novel action value attribution method which is provably consistent with the original learning objective yet more efficient. The experiments on the data from two real-world markets have illustrated superior performance with significantly better collaboration effectiveness achieved by our method.

Zhengyu Yang, Kan Ren, Xufang Luo et al.

It is challenging for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to succeed in real-world applications like financial trading and logistic system due to the noisy observation and environment shifting between training and evaluation. Thus, it requires both high sample efficiency and generalization for resolving real-world tasks. However, directly applying typical RL algorithms can lead to poor performance in such scenarios. Considering the great performance of ensemble methods on both accuracy and generalization in supervised learning (SL), we design a robust and applicable method named Ensemble Proximal Policy Optimization (EPPO), which learns ensemble policies in an end-to-end manner. Notably, EPPO combines each policy and the policy ensemble organically and optimizes both simultaneously. In addition, EPPO adopts a diversity enhancement regularization over the policy space which helps to generalize to unseen states and promotes exploration. We theoretically prove EPPO increases exploration efficacy, and through comprehensive experimental evaluations on various tasks, we demonstrate that EPPO achieves higher efficiency and is robust for real-world applications compared with vanilla policy optimization algorithms and other ensemble methods. Code and supplemental materials are available at https://seqml.github.io/eppo.

Wanyi Chen, Xiao Yang, Xu Yang et al.

We introduce Agent^2 RL-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating agentic RL post-training -- whether LLM agents can autonomously design, implement, and run complete RL pipelines that improve foundation models. This capability is important because RL post-training increasingly drives model alignment and specialization, yet existing benchmarks remain largely static: supervised fine-tuning alone yields strong results, leaving interactive RL engineering untested. Agent^2 RL-Bench addresses this with six tasks across three levels -- from static rule-based training to closed-loop online RL with trajectory collection -- each adding a structural requirement that prior levels do not impose. The benchmark provides isolated workspaces with a grading API, runtime instrumentation that records every submission and code revision, and automated post-hoc analysis that generates structured run reports, enabling the first automated diagnostic of agent-driven post-training behavior. Across multiple agent stacks spanning five agent systems and six driver LLMs, we find that agents achieve striking interactive gains -- on ALFWorld, an RL-only agent improves from 5.97 to 93.28 via SFT warm-up and GRPO with online rollouts -- yet make only marginal progress on others (DeepSearchQA: +2.75 within evaluation noise), and that driver choice has a large effect on interactive tasks -- within the same scaffold, switching drivers changes interactive improvement from near-zero to +78pp. More broadly, the benchmark reveals that supervised pipelines dominate agent-driven post-training under fixed budgets, with online RL succeeding as the final best route only on ALFWorld. Code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/RD-Agent/tree/main/rdagent/scenarios/rl/autorl_bench.

Xianfeng Jiao, Zizhong Li, Chang Xu et al.

High-frequency quantitative investment is a crucial aspect of stock investment. Notably, order flow data plays a critical role as it provides the most detailed level of information among high-frequency trading data, including comprehensive data from the order book and transaction records at the tick level. The order flow data is extremely valuable for market analysis as it equips traders with essential insights for making informed decisions. However, extracting and effectively utilizing order flow data present challenges due to the large volume of data involved and the limitations of traditional factor mining techniques, which are primarily designed for coarser-level stock data. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework that aims to effectively extract essential factors from order flow data for diverse downstream tasks across different granularities and scenarios. Our method consists of a Context Encoder and an Factor Extractor. The Context Encoder learns an embedding for the current order flow data segment's context by considering both the expected and actual market state. In addition, the Factor Extractor uses unsupervised learning methods to select such important signals that are most distinct from the majority within the given context. The extracted factors are then utilized for downstream tasks. In empirical studies, our proposed framework efficiently handles an entire year of stock order flow data across diverse scenarios, offering a broader range of applications compared to existing tick-level approaches that are limited to only a few days of stock data. We demonstrate that our method extracts superior factors from order flow data, enabling significant improvement for stock trend prediction and order execution tasks at the second and minute level.

Hengxu Lin, Dong Zhou, Weiqing Liu et al.

Successful quantitative investment usually relies on precise predictions of the future movement of the stock price. Recently, machine learning based solutions have shown their capacity to give more accurate stock prediction and become indispensable components in modern quantitative investment systems. However, the i.i.d. assumption behind existing methods is inconsistent with the existence of diverse trading patterns in the stock market, which inevitably limits their ability to achieve better stock prediction performance. In this paper, we propose a novel architecture, Temporal Routing Adaptor (TRA), to empower existing stock prediction models with the ability to model multiple stock trading patterns. Essentially, TRA is a lightweight module that consists of a set of independent predictors for learning multiple patterns as well as a router to dispatch samples to different predictors. Nevertheless, the lack of explicit pattern identifiers makes it quite challenging to train an effective TRA-based model. To tackle this challenge, we further design a learning algorithm based on Optimal Transport (OT) to obtain the optimal sample to predictor assignment and effectively optimize the router with such assignment through an auxiliary loss term. Experiments on the real-world stock ranking task show that compared to the state-of-the-art baselines, e.g., Attention LSTM and Transformer, the proposed method can improve information coefficient (IC) from 0.053 to 0.059 and 0.051 to 0.056 respectively. Our dataset and code used in this work are publicly available: https://github.com/microsoft/qlib/tree/main/examples/benchmarks/TRA.

Jianming Pan, Zeqi Ye, Xiao Yang et al.

Data-driven decision-making processes increasingly utilize end-to-end learnable deep neural networks to render final decisions. Sometimes, the output of the forward functions in certain layers is determined by the solutions to mathematical optimization problems, leading to the emergence of differentiable optimization layers that permit gradient back-propagation. However, real-world scenarios often involve large-scale datasets and numerous constraints, presenting significant challenges. Current methods for differentiating optimization problems typically rely on implicit differentiation, which necessitates costly computations on the Jacobian matrices, resulting in low efficiency. In this paper, we introduce BPQP, a differentiable convex optimization framework designed for efficient end-to-end learning. To enhance efficiency, we reformulate the backward pass as a simplified and decoupled quadratic programming problem by leveraging the structural properties of the KKT matrix. This reformulation enables the use of first-order optimization algorithms in calculating the backward pass gradients, allowing our framework to potentially utilize any state-of-the-art solver. As solver technologies evolve, BPQP can continuously adapt and improve its efficiency. Extensive experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate that BPQP achieves a significant improvement in efficiency--typically an order of magnitude faster in overall execution time compared to other differentiable optimization layers. Our results not only highlight the efficiency gains of BPQP but also underscore its superiority over differentiable optimization layer baselines.

Sarthak Ahuja, Mohammad Kachuee, Fateme Sheikholeslami et al.

Off-Policy reinforcement learning has been a driving force for the state-of-the-art conversational AIs leading to more natural humanagent interactions and improving the user satisfaction for goal-oriented agents. However, in large-scale commercial settings, it is often challenging to balance between policy improvements and experience continuity on the broad spectrum of applications handled by such system. In the literature, off-policy evaluation and guard-railing on aggregate statistics has been commonly used to address this problem. In this paper, we propose a method for curating and leveraging high-precision samples sourced from historical regression incident reports to validate, safe-guard, and improve policies prior to the online deployment. We conducted extensive experiments using data from a real-world conversational system and actual regression incidents. The proposed method is currently deployed in our production system to protect customers against broken experiences and enable long-term policy improvements.

Wentao Xu, Yingce Xia, Weiqing Liu et al.

Many real-world graphs (networks) are heterogeneous with different types of nodes and edges. Heterogeneous graph embedding, aiming at learning the low-dimensional node representations of a heterogeneous graph, is vital for various downstream applications. Many meta-path based embedding methods have been proposed to learn the semantic information of heterogeneous graphs in recent years. However, most of the existing techniques overlook the graph structure information when learning the heterogeneous graph embeddings. This paper proposes a novel Structure-Aware Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network (SHGNN) to address the above limitations. In detail, we first utilize a feature propagation module to capture the local structure information of intermediate nodes in the meta-path. Next, we use a tree-attention aggregator to incorporate the graph structure information into the aggregation module on the meta-path. Finally, we leverage a meta-path aggregator to fuse the information aggregated from different meta-paths. We conducted experiments on node classification and clustering tasks and achieved state-of-the-art results on the benchmark datasets, which shows the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Zhiping Luo, Wentao Xu, Weiqing Liu et al.

Learning the embeddings of knowledge graphs (KG) is vital in artificial intelligence, and can benefit various downstream applications, such as recommendation and question answering. In recent years, many research efforts have been proposed for knowledge graph embedding (KGE). However, most previous KGE methods ignore the semantic similarity between the related entities and entity-relation couples in different triples since they separately optimize each triple with the scoring function. To address this problem, we propose a simple yet efficient contrastive learning framework for tensor decomposition based (TDB) KGE, which can shorten the semantic distance of the related entities and entity-relation couples in different triples and thus improve the performance of KGE. We evaluate our proposed method on three standard KGE datasets: WN18RR, FB15k-237 and YAGO3-10. Our method can yield some new state-of-the-art results, achieving 51.2% MRR, 46.8% Hits@1 on the WN18RR dataset, 37.8% MRR, 28.6% Hits@1 on FB15k-237 dataset, and 59.1% MRR, 51.8% Hits@1 on the YAGO3-10 dataset.

Hengxu Lin, Dong Zhou, Weiqing Liu et al.

Modeling and managing portfolio risk is perhaps the most important step to achieve growing and preserving investment performance. Within the modern portfolio construction framework that built on Markowitz's theory, the covariance matrix of stock returns is a required input to calculate portfolio risk. Traditional approaches to estimate the covariance matrix are based on human-designed risk factors, which often require tremendous time and effort to design better risk factors to improve the covariance estimation. In this work, we formulate the quest of mining risk factors as a learning problem and propose a deep learning solution to effectively ``design'' risk factors with neural networks. The learning objective is also carefully set to ensure the learned risk factors are effective in explaining the variance of stock returns as well as having desired orthogonality and stability. Our experiments on the stock market data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed solution: our method can obtain $1.9\%$ higher explained variance measured by $R^2$ and also reduce the risk of a global minimum variance portfolio. The incremental analysis further supports our design of both the architecture and the learning objective.

Xia Hu, Lingyang Chu, Jian Pei et al.

Model complexity is a fundamental problem in deep learning. In this paper we conduct a systematic overview of the latest studies on model complexity in deep learning. Model complexity of deep learning can be categorized into expressive capacity and effective model complexity. We review the existing studies on those two categories along four important factors, including model framework, model size, optimization process and data complexity. We also discuss the applications of deep learning model complexity including understanding model generalization, model optimization, and model selection and design. We conclude by proposing several interesting future directions.

Wentao Xu, Weiqing Liu, Chang Xu et al.

Stock trend forecasting, aiming at predicting the stock future trends, is crucial for investors to seek maximized profits from the stock market. Many event-driven methods utilized the events extracted from news, social media, and discussion board to forecast the stock trend in recent years. However, existing event-driven methods have two main shortcomings: 1) overlooking the influence of event information differentiated by the stock-dependent properties; 2) neglecting the effect of event information from other related stocks. In this paper, we propose a relational event-driven stock trend forecasting (REST) framework, which can address the shortcoming of existing methods. To remedy the first shortcoming, we propose to model the stock context and learn the effect of event information on the stocks under different contexts. To address the second shortcoming, we construct a stock graph and design a new propagation layer to propagate the effect of event information from related stocks. The experimental studies on the real-world data demonstrate the efficiency of our REST framework. The results of investment simulation show that our framework can achieve a higher return of investment than baselines.

Hongshun Tang, Lijun Wu, Weiqing Liu et al.

Stock trend forecasting has become a popular research direction that attracts widespread attention in the financial field. Though deep learning methods have achieved promising results, there are still many limitations, for example, how to extract clean features from the raw stock data. In this paper, we introduce an \emph{Augmented Disentanglement Distillation (ADD)} approach to remove interferential features from the noised raw data. Specifically, we present 1) a disentanglement structure to separate excess and market information from the stock data to avoid the two factors disturbing each other's own prediction. Besides, by applying 2) a dynamic self-distillation method over the disentanglement framework, other implicit interference factors can also be removed. Further, thanks to the decoder module in our framework, 3) a novel strategy is proposed to augment the training samples based on the different excess and market features to improve performance. We conduct experiments on the Chinese stock market data. Results show that our method significantly improves the stock trend forecasting performances, as well as the actual investment income through backtesting, which strongly demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach.

Xiao Yang, Weiqing Liu, Dong Zhou et al.

Quantitative investment aims to maximize the return and minimize the risk in a sequential trading period over a set of financial instruments. Recently, inspired by rapid development and great potential of AI technologies in generating remarkable innovation in quantitative investment, there has been increasing adoption of AI-driven workflow for quantitative research and practical investment. In the meantime of enriching the quantitative investment methodology, AI technologies have raised new challenges to the quantitative investment system. Particularly, the new learning paradigms for quantitative investment call for an infrastructure upgrade to accommodate the renovated workflow; moreover, the data-driven nature of AI technologies indeed indicates a requirement of the infrastructure with more powerful performance; additionally, there exist some unique challenges for applying AI technologies to solve different tasks in the financial scenarios. To address these challenges and bridge the gap between AI technologies and quantitative investment, we design and develop Qlib that aims to realize the potential, empower the research, and create the value of AI technologies in quantitative investment.

Xueqing Wu, Lewen Wang, Yingce Xia et al.

Sequence learning has attracted much research attention from the machine learning community in recent years. In many applications, a sequence learning task is usually associated with multiple temporally correlated auxiliary tasks, which are different in terms of how much input information to use or which future step to predict. For example, (i) in simultaneous machine translation, one can conduct translation under different latency (i.e., how many input words to read/wait before translation); (ii) in stock trend forecasting, one can predict the price of a stock in different future days (e.g., tomorrow, the day after tomorrow). While it is clear that those temporally correlated tasks can help each other, there is a very limited exploration on how to better leverage multiple auxiliary tasks to boost the performance of the main task. In this work, we introduce a learnable scheduler to sequence learning, which can adaptively select auxiliary tasks for training depending on the model status and the current training data. The scheduler and the model for the main task are jointly trained through bi-level optimization. Experiments show that our method significantly improves the performance of simultaneous machine translation and stock trend forecasting.

Yang Fan, Yingce Xia, Lijun Wu et al.

Recently, the concept of teaching has been introduced into machine learning, in which a teacher model is used to guide the training of a student model (which will be used in real tasks) through data selection, loss function design, etc. Learning to reweight, which is a specific kind of teaching that reweights training data using a teacher model, receives much attention due to its simplicity and effectiveness. In existing learning to reweight works, the teacher model only utilizes shallow/surface information such as training iteration number and loss/accuracy of the student model from training/validation sets, but ignores the internal states of the student model, which limits the potential of learning to reweight. In this work, we propose an improved data reweighting algorithm, in which the student model provides its internal states to the teacher model, and the teacher model returns adaptive weights of training samples to enhance the training of the student model. The teacher model is jointly trained with the student model using meta gradients propagated from a validation set. Experiments on image classification with clean/noisy labels and neural machine translation empirically demonstrate that our algorithm makes significant improvement over previous methods.

Xia Hu, Weiqing Liu, Jiang Bian et al.

It is fundamental to measure model complexity of deep neural networks. The existing literature on model complexity mainly focuses on neural networks with piecewise linear activation functions. Model complexity of neural networks with general curve activation functions remains an open problem. To tackle the challenge, in this paper, we first propose the linear approximation neural network (LANN for short), a piecewise linear framework to approximate a given deep model with curve activation function. LANN constructs individual piecewise linear approximation for the activation function of each neuron, and minimizes the number of linear regions to satisfy a required approximation degree. Then, we analyze the upper bound of the number of linear regions formed by LANNs, and derive the complexity measure based on the upper bound. To examine the usefulness of the complexity measure, we experimentally explore the training process of neural networks and detect overfitting. Our results demonstrate that the occurrence of overfitting is positively correlated with the increase of model complexity during training. We find that the $L^1$ and $L^2$ regularizations suppress the increase of model complexity. Finally, we propose two approaches to prevent overfitting by directly constraining model complexity, namely neuron pruning and customized $L^1$ regularization.

Ziniu Hu, Weiqing Liu, Jiang Bian et al.

Stock trend prediction plays a critical role in seeking maximized profit from stock investment. However, precise trend prediction is very difficult since the highly volatile and non-stationary nature of stock market. Exploding information on Internet together with advancing development of natural language processing and text mining techniques have enable investors to unveil market trends and volatility from online content. Unfortunately, the quality, trustworthiness and comprehensiveness of online content related to stock market varies drastically, and a large portion consists of the low-quality news, comments, or even rumors. To address this challenge, we imitate the learning process of human beings facing such chaotic online news, driven by three principles: sequential content dependency, diverse influence, and effective and efficient learning. In this paper, to capture the first two principles, we designed a Hybrid Attention Networks to predict the stock trend based on the sequence of recent related news. Moreover, we apply the self-paced learning mechanism to imitate the third principle. Extensive experiments on real-world stock market data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.