Alex Li

Alex Li, Joseph Jacobson

The rapid pace of scientific publishing has made the identification and synthesis of high-impact work an increasingly urgent challenge. We introduce MIRAI (Multi-year Inference of Research trends and Academic Impact), a deep learning framework that predicts paper impact using only it's title, abstract, and publication date. We train MIRAI on the arXiv academic graph to predict 5-year PageRank and citation counts, achieving Spearman's $ρ$ of 0.4686 on PageRank prediction and 0.6192 on citation prediction for papers published in 2021. We propose a research ideation pipeline built on top of MIRAI that produces research ideas oriented towards high impact. These ideas were judged as more impactful than a baseline without MIRAI by an unbiased LLM judge at a 4:3 ratio. We make the 5-year citation prediction model publicly available at https://predict-paper-impact.vercel.app.

Alex Li

Predicting volatility in financial markets, including stocks, index ETFs, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies, remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics of these time series. In this study, I apply TimeMixer, a state-of-the-art time series forecasting model, to predict the volatility of global financial assets. TimeMixer utilizes a multiscale-mixing approach that effectively captures both short-term and long-term temporal patterns by analyzing data across different scales. My empirical results reveal that while TimeMixer performs exceptionally well in short-term volatility forecasting, its accuracy diminishes for longer-term predictions, particularly in highly volatile markets. These findings highlight TimeMixer's strength in capturing short-term volatility, making it highly suitable for practical applications in financial risk management, where precise short-term forecasts are critical. However, the model's limitations in long-term forecasting point to potential areas for further refinement.

Alex Li, Ilyas Bankole-Hameed, Ranadeep Singh et al.

In hope of expanding training data, researchers often want to merge two or more datasets that are created using different labeling schemes. This paper considers two datasets that label part-of-speech (POS) tags under different tagging schemes and leverage the supervised labels of one dataset to help generate labels for the other dataset. This paper further discusses the theoretical difficulties of this approach and proposes a novel supervised architecture employing Transformers to tackle the problem of consolidating two completely disjoint datasets. The results diverge from initial expectations and discourage exploration into the use of disjoint labels to consolidate datasets with different labels.

Sudarshan Srinivasa Ramanujam, Antonio Alonso, Saurabh Kataria et al.

In large scale recommendation systems like the LinkedIn Feed, the retrieval stage is critical for narrowing hundreds of millions of potential candidates to a manageable subset for ranking. LinkedIn's Feed serves suggested content from outside of the member's network (based on the member's topical interests), where 2000 candidates are retrieved from a pool of hundreds of millions candidate with a latency budget of a few milliseconds and inbound QPS of several thousand per second. This paper presents a novel retrieval approach that fine-tunes a large causal language model (Meta's LLaMA 3) as a dual encoder to generate high quality embeddings for both users (members) and content (items), using only textual input. We describe the end to end pipeline, including prompt design for embedding generation, techniques for fine-tuning at LinkedIn's scale, and infrastructure for low latency, cost effective online serving. We share our findings on how quantizing numerical features in the prompt enables the information to get properly encoded in the embedding, facilitating greater alignment between the retrieval and ranking layer. The system was evaluated using offline metrics and an online A/B test, which showed substantial improvements in member engagement. We observed significant gains among newer members, who often lack strong network connections, indicating that high-quality suggested content aids retention. This work demonstrates how generative language models can be effectively adapted for real time, high throughput retrieval in industrial applications.