Hui Song

Hui Song, A. K. Qin, Chenggang Yan

Real-world electricity consumption prediction may involve different tasks, e.g., prediction for different time steps ahead or different geo-locations. These tasks are often solved independently without utilizing some common problem-solving knowledge that could be extracted and shared among these tasks to augment the performance of solving each task. In this work, we propose a multi-task optimization (MTO) based co-training (MTO-CT) framework, where the models for solving different tasks are co-trained via an MTO paradigm in which solving each task may benefit from the knowledge gained from when solving some other tasks to help its solving process. MTO-CT leverages long short-term memory (LSTM) based model as the predictor where the knowledge is represented via connection weights and biases. In MTO-CT, an inter-task knowledge transfer module is designed to transfer knowledge between different tasks, where the most helpful source tasks are selected by using the probability matching and stochastic universal selection, and evolutionary operations like mutation and crossover are performed for reusing the knowledge from selected source tasks in a target task. We use electricity consumption data from five states in Australia to design two sets of tasks at different scales: a) one-step ahead prediction for each state (five tasks) and b) 6-step, 12-step, 18-step, and 24-step ahead prediction for each state (20 tasks). The performance of MTO-CT is evaluated on solving each of these two sets of tasks in comparison to solving each task in the set independently without knowledge sharing under the same settings, which demonstrates the superiority of MTO-CT in terms of prediction accuracy.

Ammar Mansoor Kamoona, Hui Song, Mahdi Jalili et al.

The growing popularity of Electric Vehicles (EVs) poses unique challenges for grid operators and infrastructure, which requires effectively managing these vehicles' integration into the grid. Identification of EVs charging is essential to electricity Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) for better planning and managing the distribution grid. One critical aspect is the ability to accurately identify the presence of EV charging in the grid. EV charging identification using smart meter readings obtained from behind-the-meter devices is a challenging task that enables effective managing the integration of EVs into the existing power grid. Different from the existing supervised models that require addressing the imbalance problem caused by EVs and non-EVs data, we propose a novel unsupervised memory-based transformer (M-TR) that can run in real-time (online) to detect EVs charging from a streaming smart meter. It dynamically leverages coarse-scale historical information using an M-TR encoder from an extended global temporal window, in conjunction with an M-TR decoder that concentrates on a limited time frame, local window, aiming to capture the fine-scale characteristics of the smart meter data. The M-TR is based on an anomaly detection technique that does not require any prior knowledge about EVs charging profiles, nor it does only require real power consumption data of non-EV users. In addition, the proposed model leverages the power of transfer learning. The M-TR is compared with different state-of-the-art methods and performs better than other unsupervised learning models. The model can run with an excellent execution time of 1.2 sec. for 1-minute smart recordings.

Ammar Kamoona, Hui Song, Ali Moradi Amani et al.

Electric vehicle (EV) charging loads identification from behind smart meter recordings is an indispensable aspect that enables effective decision-making for energy distributors to reach an informed and intelligent decision about the power grid's reliability. When EV charging happens behind the meter (BTM), the charging occurs on the customer side of the meter, which measures the overall electricity consumption. In other words, the charging of the EV is considered part of the customer's load and not separately measured by the Distribution Network Operators (DNOs). DNOs require complete knowledge about the EV presence in their network. Identifying the EV charging demand is essential to better plan and manage the distribution grid. Unlike supervised methods, this paper addresses the problem of EV charging load identification in a non-nonintrusive manner from low-frequency smart meter using an unsupervised learning approach based on anomaly detection technique. Our approach does not require prior knowledge of EV charging profiles. It only requires real power consumption data of non-EV users, which are abundant in practice. We propose a deep temporal convolution encoding decoding (TAE) network. The TAE is applied to power consumption from smart BTM from Victorian households in Australia, and the TAE shows superior performance in identifying households with EVs.

Hui Song, Zheng Miao, Ali Babalhavaeji et al.

The increasing installation of Photovoltaics (PV) cells leads to more generation of renewable energy sources (RES), but results in increased uncertainties of energy scheduling. Predicting PV power generation is important for energy management and dispatch optimization in smart grid. However, the PV power generation data is often collected across different types of customers (e.g., residential, agricultural, industrial, and commercial) while the customer information is always de-identified. This often results in a forecasting model trained with all PV power generation data, allowing the predictor to learn various patterns through intra-model self-learning, instead of constructing a separate predictor for each customer type. In this paper, we propose a clustering-based multitasking deep neural network (CM-DNN) framework for PV power generation prediction. K-means is applied to cluster the data into different customer types. For each type, a deep neural network (DNN) is employed and trained until the accuracy cannot be improved. Subsequently, for a specified customer type (i.e., the target task), inter-model knowledge transfer is conducted to enhance its training accuracy. During this process, source task selection is designed to choose the optimal subset of tasks (excluding the target customer), and each selected source task uses a coefficient to determine the amount of DNN model knowledge (weights and biases) transferred to the aimed prediction task. The proposed CM-DNN is tested on a real-world PV power generation dataset and its superiority is demonstrated by comparing the prediction performance on training the dataset with a single model without clustering.

Hui Song, A. K. Qin, Flora D. Salim

Multivariate time series (MTS) prediction plays a key role in many fields such as finance, energy and transport, where each individual time series corresponds to the data collected from a certain data source, so-called channel. A typical pipeline of building an MTS prediction model (PM) consists of selecting a subset of channels among all available ones, extracting features from the selected channels, and building a PM based on the extracted features, where each component involves certain optimization tasks, i.e., selection of channels, feature extraction (FE) methods, and PMs as well as configuration of the selected FE method and PM. Accordingly, pursuing the best prediction performance corresponds to optimizing the pipeline by solving all of its involved optimization problems. This is a non-trivial task due to the vastness of the solution space. Different from most of the existing works which target at optimizing certain components of the pipeline, we propose a novel evolutionary ensemble learning framework to optimize the entire pipeline in a holistic manner. In this framework, a specific pipeline is encoded as a candidate solution and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is applied under different population sizes to produce multiple Pareto optimal sets (POSs). Finally, selective ensemble learning is designed to choose the optimal subset of solutions from the POSs and combine them to yield final prediction by using greedy sequential selection and least square methods. We implement the proposed framework and evaluate our implementation on two real-world applications, i.e., electricity consumption prediction and air quality prediction. The performance comparison with state-of-the-art techniques demonstrates the superiority of the proposed approach.