Nikolay Koldunov

Thomas Rackow, Nikolay Koldunov, Christian Lessig et al.

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the strong links between weather and climate modelling, this raises the question whether machine learning models could also revolutionize climate science, for example by informing mitigation and adaptation to climate change or to generate larger ensembles for more robust uncertainty estimates. Here, we show that current state-of-the-art machine learning models trained for weather forecasting in present-day climate produce skillful forecasts across different climate states corresponding to pre-industrial, present-day, and future 2.9K warmer climates. This indicates that the dynamics shaping the weather on short timescales may not differ fundamentally in a changing climate. It also demonstrates out-of-distribution generalization capabilities of the machine learning models that are a critical prerequisite for climate applications. Nonetheless, two of the models show a global-mean cold bias in the forecasts for the future warmer climate state, i.e. they drift towards the colder present-day climate they have been trained for. A similar result is obtained for the pre-industrial case where two out of three models show a warming. We discuss possible remedies for these biases and analyze their spatial distribution, revealing complex warming and cooling patterns that are partly related to missing ocean-sea ice and land surface information in the training data. Despite these current limitations, our results suggest that data-driven machine learning models will provide powerful tools for climate science and transform established approaches by complementing conventional physics-based models.

Nikolay V. Koldunov, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sergey Danilov et al.

Large language models (LLMs) can translate and modify source code, and have been shown to do so for codes of different complexity. Whether they can port a complete, production geophysical model to a different language without degrading its physics has not been established. We demonstrate that LLM-assisted code translation can preserve the physics of a complete production ocean model while moving it into a modern performance-portable form. We report our experience using an agentic LLM coding assistant, directed by domain experts, to port the FESOM2 unstructured mesh ocean--sea-ice model (about 74000 lines of core Fortran) first to C and then to C++/Kokkos for performance portability across CPUs and GPUs. We describe the practices that proved necessary, what worked and what did not, and the failure modes that we encountered. Three practices mattered most: translating in two stages that separate reproducing the numerics (Fortran to a clean C reference) from introducing parallelism (C to Kokkos); requiring a strictly literal translation in which the assistant was not permitted to ``improve'' the source; and validating each stage against an acceptance criterion suited to it. The C port reproduces the original Fortran at the level of long-term simulation statistics over five years. The Kokkos port is bit-for-bit identical to the C reference on CPU and statistically close on GPU over multi-year runs. On eddy-rich meshes up to 7.4 million surface vertices a single A100 GPU node runs 1.6--3.7 times faster than a CPU node, reaching the 1-2 simulated-years-per-day required for production integrations. The result is more than a single GPU port: by following a clear validation procedure, an LLM moved a full Fortran ocean model into another language and onto accelerators while preserving its physics in a matter of weeks.

Ivan Kuznetsov, Jacopo Grassi, Dmitrii Pantiukhin et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for climate-related applications, where understanding internal climatological knowledge is crucial for reliability and misinformation risk assessment. Despite growing adoption, the capacity of LLMs to recall climate normals from parametric knowledge remains largely uncharacterized. We investigate the capacity of contemporary LLMs to recall climate normals without external retrieval, focusing on a prototypical query: mean July 2-m air temperature 1991-2020 at specified locations. We construct a global grid of queries at 1° resolution land points, providing coordinates and location descriptors, and validate responses against ERA5 reanalysis. Results show that LLMs encode non-trivial climate structure, capturing latitudinal and topographic patterns, with root-mean-square errors of 3-6 °C and biases of $\pm$1 °C. However, spatially coherent errors remain, particularly in mountains and high latitudes. Performance degrades sharply above 1500 m, where RMSE reaches 5-13 °C compared to 2-4 °C at lower elevations. We find that including geographic context (country, city, region) reduces errors by 27% on average, with larger models being most sensitive to location descriptors. While models capture the global mean magnitude of observed warming between 1950-1974 and 2000-2024, they fail to reproduce spatial patterns of temperature change, which directly relate to assessing climate change. This limitation highlights that while LLMs may capture present-day climate distributions, they struggle to represent the regional and local expression of long-term shifts in temperature essential for understanding climate dynamics. Our evaluation framework provides a reproducible benchmark for quantifying parametric climate knowledge in LLMs and complements existing climate communication assessments.