Jiaqi Wen

Jiaqi Wen, Bogdan Gabrys, Katarzyna Musial

This study proposes an extendable modelling framework for Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems (DT-CNSs) with a goal of generating networks that faithfully represent real systems. Modelling process focuses on (i) features of nodes and (ii) interaction rules for creating connections that are built based on individual node's preferences. We conduct experiments on simulation-based DT-CNSs that incorporate various features and rules about network growth and different transmissibilities related to an epidemic spread on these networks. We present a case study on disaster resilience of social networks given an epidemic outbreak by investigating the infection occurrence within specific time and social distance. The experimental results show how different levels of the structural and dynamics complexities, concerned with feature diversity and flexibility of interaction rules respectively, influence network growth and epidemic spread. The analysis revealed that, to achieve maximum disaster resilience, mitigation policies should be targeted at nodes with preferred features as they have higher infection risks and should be the focus of the epidemic control.

Jiaqi Wen, Bogdan Gabrys, Katarzyna Musial

Building models of Complex Networked Systems (CNS) that can accurately represent reality forms an important research area. To be able to reflect real world systems, the modelling needs to consider not only the intensity of interactions between the entities but also features of all the elements of the system. This study aims to improve the expressive power of node features in Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems (DT-CNSs) with heterogeneous feature representation principles. This involves representing features with crisp feature values and fuzzy sets, each describing the objective and the subjective inductions of the nodes' features and feature differences. Our empirical analysis builds DT-CNSs to recreate realistic physical contact networks in different countries from real node feature distributions based on various representation principles and an optimised feature preference. We also investigate their respective disaster resilience to an epidemic outbreak starting from the most popular node. The results suggest that the increasing flexibility of feature representation with fuzzy sets improves the expressive power and enables more accurate modelling. In addition, the heterogeneous features influence the network structure and the speed of the epidemic outbreak, requiring various mitigation policies targeted at different people.

Jiaqi Wen, Bogdan Gabrys, Katarzyna Musial

The Digital Twin Oriented Complex Networked System (DT-CNS) aims to build and extend a Complex Networked System (CNS) model with progressively increasing dynamics complexity towards an accurate reflection of reality -- a Digital Twin of reality. Our previous work proposed evolutionary DT-CNSs to model the long-term adaptive network changes in an epidemic outbreak. This study extends this framework by proposeing the temporal DT-CNS model, where reinforcement learning-driven nodes make decisions on temporal directed interactions in an epidemic outbreak. We consider cooperative nodes, as well as egocentric and ignorant "free-riders" in the cooperation. We describe this epidemic spreading process with the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered ($SIR$) model and investigate the impact of epidemic severity on the epidemic resilience for different types of nodes. Our experimental results show that (i) the full cooperation leads to a higher reward and lower infection number than a cooperation with egocentric or ignorant "free-riders"; (ii) an increasing number of "free-riders" in a cooperation leads to a smaller reward, while an increasing number of egocentric "free-riders" further escalate the infection numbers and (iii) higher infection rates and a slower recovery weakens networks' resilience to severe epidemic outbreaks. These findings also indicate that promoting cooperation and reducing "free-riders" can improve public health during epidemics.