Yohann De Castro

Yohann De Castro, Fabrice Gamboa, Didier Henrion et al.

We introduce a new approach aiming at computing approximate optimal designs for multivariate polynomial regressions on compact (semi-algebraic) design spaces. We use the moment-sum-of-squares hierarchy of semidefinite programming problems to solve numerically the approximate optimal design problem. The geometry of the design is recovered via semidefinite programming duality theory. This article shows that the hierarchy converges to the approximate optimal design as the order of the hierarchy increases. Furthermore, we provide a dual certificate ensuring finite convergence of the hierarchy and showing that the approximate optimal design can be computed numerically with our method. As a byproduct, we revisit the equivalence theorem of the experimental design theory: it is linked to the Christoffel polynomial and it characterizes finite convergence of the moment-sum-of-square hierarchies.

Antoine Villié, Philippe Veber, Yohann de Castro et al.

Over the past decade, neural networks have been successful at making predictions from biological sequences, especially in the context of regulatory genomics. As in other fields of deep learning, tools have been devised to extract features such as sequence motifs that can explain the predictions made by a trained network. Here we intend to go beyond explainable machine learning and introduce SEISM, a selective inference procedure to test the association between these extracted features and the predicted phenotype. In particular, we discuss how training a one-layer convolutional network is formally equivalent to selecting motifs maximizing some association score. We adapt existing sampling-based selective inference procedures by quantizing this selection over an infinite set to a large but finite grid. Finally, we show that sampling under a specific choice of parameters is sufficient to characterize the composite null hypothesis typically used for selective inference-a result that goes well beyond our particular framework. We illustrate the behavior of our method in terms of calibration, power and speed and discuss its power/speed trade-off with a simpler data-split strategy. SEISM paves the way to an easier analysis of neural networks used in regulatory genomics, and to more powerful methods for genome wide association studies (GWAS).

Pierre-Cyril Aubin-Frankowski, Yohann De Castro, Axel Parmentier et al.

A recent line of structured learning methods has advanced the practical state-of-the-art for combinatorial optimization problems with complex, application-specific objectives. These approaches learn policies that couple a statistical model with a tractable surrogate combinatorial optimization oracle, so as to exploit the distribution of problem instances instead of solving each instance independently. A core obstacle is that the empirical risk is then piecewise constant in the model parameters. This hinders gradient-based optimization and only few theoretical guarantees have been provided so far. We address this issue by analyzing smoothed (perturbed) policies: adding controlled random perturbations to the direction used by the linear oracle yields a differentiable surrogate risk and improves generalization. Our main contribution is a generalization bound that decomposes the excess risk into perturbation bias, statistical estimation error, and optimization error. The analysis hinges on a new Uniform Weak (UW) property capturing the geometric interaction between the statistical model and the normal fan of the feasible polytope; we show it holds under mild assumptions, and automatically when a minimal baseline perturbation is present. The framework covers, in particular, contextual stochastic optimization. We illustrate the scope of the results on applications such as stochastic vehicle scheduling, highlighting how smoothing enables both tractable training and controlled generalization.

Martin Gjorgjevski, Nicolas Keriven, Simon Barthelmé et al.

Node regression consists in predicting the value of a graph label at a node, given observations at the other nodes. To gain some insight into the performance of various estimators for this task, we perform a theoretical study in a context where the graph is random. Specifically, we assume that the graph is generated by a Latent Position Model, where each node of the graph has a latent position, and the probability that two nodes are connected depend on the distance between the latent positions of the two nodes. In this context, we begin by studying the simplest possible estimator for graph regression, which consists in averaging the value of the label at all neighboring nodes. We show that in Latent Position Models this estimator tends to a Nadaraya Watson estimator in the latent space, and that its rate of convergence is in fact the same. One issue with this standard estimator is that it averages over a region consisting of all neighbors of a node, and that depending on the graph model this may be too much or too little. An alternative consists in first estimating the true distances between the latent positions, then injecting these estimated distances into a classical Nadaraya Watson estimator. This enables averaging in regions either smaller or larger than the typical graph neighborhood. We show that this method can achieve standard nonparametric rates in certain instances even when the graph neighborhood is too large or too small.

Jean-Marc Azaïs, Federico Dalmao, Yohann De Castro

In this article, we introduce the novel concept of the second maximum of a Gaussian random field on a Riemannian submanifold. This second maximum serves as a powerful tool for characterizing the distribution of the maximum. By utilizing an ad-hoc Kac Rice formula, we derive the explicit form of the maximum's distribution, conditioned on the second maximum and some regressed component of the Riemannian Hessian. This approach results in an exact test, based on the evaluation of spacing between these maxima, which we refer to as the spacing test. We investigate the applicability of this test in detecting sparse alternatives within Gaussian symmetric tensors, continuous sparse deconvolution, and two-layered neural networks with smooth rectifiers. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments, which illustrate the calibration and power of the proposed tests. More generally, this test can be applied to any Gaussian random field on a Riemannian manifold, and we provide a general framework for the application of the spacing test in continuous sparse kernel regression. Furthermore, when the variance-covariance function of the Gaussian random field is known up to a scaling factor, we derive an exact Studentized version of our test, coined the $t$-spacing test. This test is perfectly calibrated under the null hypothesis and has high power for detecting sparse alternatives.

Quentin Duchemin, Yohann De Castro, Claire Lacour

Despite the ubiquity of U-statistics in modern Probability and Statistics, their non-asymptotic analysis in a dependent framework may have been overlooked. In a recent work, a new concentration inequality for U-statistics of order two for uniformly ergodic Markov chains has been proved. In this paper, we put this theoretical breakthrough into action by pushing further the current state of knowledge in three different active fields of research. First, we establish a new exponential inequality for the estimation of spectra of trace class integral operators with MCMC methods. The novelty is that this result holds for kernels with positive and negative eigenvalues, which is new as far as we know. In addition, we investigate generalization performance of online algorithms working with pairwise loss functions and Markov chain samples. We provide an online-to-batch conversion result by showing how we can extract a low risk hypothesis from the sequence of hypotheses generated by any online learner. We finally give a non-asymptotic analysis of a goodness-of-fit test on the density of the invariant measure of a Markov chain. We identify some classes of alternatives over which our test based on the $L_2$ distance has a prescribed power.

Guillaume Dalle, Yohann de Castro

High-dimensional time series are a core ingredient of the statistical modeling toolkit, for which numerous estimation methods are known.But when observations are scarce or corrupted, the learning task becomes much harder.The question is: how much harder? In this paper, we study the properties of a partially-observed Vector AutoRegressive process, which is a state-space model endowed with a stochastic observation mechanism.Our goal is to estimate its sparse transition matrix, but we only have access to a small and noisy subsample of the state components.Interestingly, the sampling process itself is random and can exhibit temporal correlations, a feature shared by many realistic data acquisition scenarios.We start by describing an estimator based on the Yule-Walker equation and the Dantzig selector, and we give an upper bound on its non-asymptotic error.Then, we provide a matching minimax lower bound, thus proving near-optimality of our estimator.The convergence rate we obtain sheds light on the role of several key parameters such as the sampling ratio, the amount of noise and the number of non-zero coefficients in the transition matrix.These theoretical findings are commented and illustrated by numerical experiments on simulated data.

Yohann de Castro, Luca Mencarelli

We consider nonnegative time series forecasting framework. Based on recent advances in Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) and Archetypal Analysis, we introduce two procedures referred to as Sliding Mask Method (SMM) and Latent Clustered Forecast (LCF). SMM is a simple and powerful method based on time window prediction using Completion of Nonnegative Matrices. This new procedure combines low nonnegative rank decomposition and matrix completion where the hidden values are to be forecasted. LCF is two stage: it leverages archetypal analysis for dimension reduction and clustering of time series, then it uses any black-box supervised forecast solver on the clustered latent representation. Theoretical guarantees on uniqueness and robustness of the solution of NMF Completion-type problems are also provided for the first time. Finally, numerical experiments on real-world and synthetic data-set confirms forecasting accuracy for both the methodologies.

Quentin Duchemin, Yohann de Castro, Claire Lacour

We prove a new concentration inequality for U-statistics of order two for uniformly ergodic Markov chains. Working with bounded and $π$-canonical kernels, we show that we can recover the convergence rate of Arcones and Gin{é} who proved a concentration result for U-statistics of independent random variables and canonical kernels. Our result allows for a dependence of the kernels $h_{i,j}$ with the indexes in the sums, which prevents the use of standard blocking tools. Our proof relies on an inductive analysis where we use martingale techniques, uniform ergodicity, Nummelin splitting and Bernstein's type inequality. Assuming further that the Markov chain starts from its invariant distribution, we prove a Bernstein-type concentration inequality that provides sharper convergence rate for small variance terms.

Quentin Duchemin, Yohann de Castro

We introduce Markov Random Geometric Graphs (MRGGs), a growth model for temporal dynamic networks. It is based on a Markovian latent space dynamic: consecutive latent points are sampled on the Euclidean Sphere using an unknown Markov kernel; and two nodes are connected with a probability depending on a unknown function of their latent geodesic distance. More precisely, at each stamp-time $k$ we add a latent point $X_k$ sampled by jumping from the previous one $X_{k-1}$ in a direction chosen uniformly $Y_k$ and with a length $r_k$ drawn from an unknown distribution called the latitude function. The connection probabilities between each pair of nodes are equal to the envelope function of the distance between these two latent points. We provide theoretical guarantees for the non-parametric estimation of the latitude and the envelope functions.We propose an efficient algorithm that achieves those non-parametric estimation tasks based on an ad-hoc Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering approach. As a by product, we show how MRGGs can be used to detect dependence structure in growing graphs and to solve link prediction problems.

Ernesto Araya, Yohann De Castro

Random geometric graphs are a popular choice for a latent points generative model for networks. Their definition is based on a sample of $n$ points $X_1,X_2,\cdots,X_n$ on the Euclidean sphere~$\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$ which represents the latent positions of nodes of the network. The connection probabilities between the nodes are determined by an unknown function (referred to as the "link" function) evaluated at the distance between the latent points. We introduce a spectral estimator of the pairwise distance between latent points and we prove that its rate of convergence is the same as the nonparametric estimation of a function on $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$, up to a logarithmic factor. In addition, we provide an efficient spectral algorithm to compute this estimator without any knowledge on the nonparametric link function. As a byproduct, our method can also consistently estimate the dimension $d$ of the latent space.

Yohann de Castro, Sébastien Gadat, Clément Marteau et al.

This paper investigates the statistical estimation of a discrete mixing measure $μ$0 involved in a kernel mixture model. Using some recent advances in l1-regularization over the space of measures, we introduce a "data fitting and regularization" convex program for estimating $μ$0 in a grid-less manner from a sample of mixture law, this method is referred to as Beurling-LASSO. Our contribution is twofold: we derive a lower bound on the bandwidth of our data fitting term depending only on the support of $μ$0 and its so-called "minimum separation" to ensure quantitative support localization error bounds; and under a so-called "non-degenerate source condition" we derive a non-asymptotic support stability property. This latter shows that for a sufficiently large sample size n, our estimator has exactly as many weighted Dirac masses as the target $μ$0 , converging in amplitude and localization towards the true ones. Finally, we also introduce some tractable algorithms for solving this convex program based on "Sliding Frank-Wolfe" or "Conic Particle Gradient Descent". Statistical performances of this estimator are investigated designing a so-called "dual certificate", which is appropriate to our setting. Some classical situations, as e.g. mixtures of super-smooth distributions (e.g. Gaussian distributions) or ordinary-smooth distributions (e.g. Laplace distributions), are discussed at the end of the paper.

Jiali Mei, Yohann De Castro, Yannig Goude et al.

Motivated by the reconstruction and the prediction of electricity consumption, we extend Nonnegative Matrix Factorization~(NMF) to take into account side information (column or row features). We consider general linear measurement settings, and propose a framework which models non-linear relationships between features and the response variables. We extend previous theoretical results to obtain a sufficient condition on the identifiability of the NMF in this setting. Based the classical Hierarchical Alternating Least Squares~(HALS) algorithm, we propose a new algorithm (HALSX, or Hierarchical Alternating Least Squares with eXogeneous variables) which estimates the factorization model. The algorithm is validated on both simulated and real electricity consumption datasets as well as a recommendation dataset, to show its performance in matrix recovery and prediction for new rows and columns.

Jiali Mei, Yohann De Castro, Yannig Goude et al.

Motivated by electricity consumption metering, we extend existing nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms to use linear measurements as observations, instead of matrix entries. The objective is to estimate multiple time series at a fine temporal scale from temporal aggregates measured on each individual series. Furthermore, our algorithm is extended to take into account individual autocorrelation to provide better estimation, using a recent convex relaxation of quadratically constrained quadratic program. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world electricity consumption datasets illustrate the effectiveness of our matrix recovery algorithms.

Sandrine Dallaporta, Yohann De Castro

This article provides a new toolbox to derive sparse recovery guarantees from small deviations on extreme singular values or extreme eigenvalues obtained in Random Matrix Theory. This work is based on Restricted Isometry Constants (RICs) which are a pivotal notion in Compressed Sensing and High-Dimensional Statistics as these constants finely assess how a linear operator is conditioned on the set of sparse vectors and hence how it performs in SRSR. While it is an open problem to construct deterministic matrices with apposite RICs, one can prove that such matrices exist using random matrices models. In this paper, we show upper bounds on RICs for Gaussian and Rademacher matrices using state-of-the-art small deviation estimates on their extreme eigenvalues. This allows us to derive a lower bound on the probability of getting SRSR. One benefit of this paper is a direct and explicit derivation of upper bounds on RICs and lower bounds on SRSR from small deviations on the extreme eigenvalues given by Random Matrix theory.

Yohann De Castro, Thibault Espinasse, Paul Rochet

In this paper, we aim at recovering an undirected weighted graph of $N$ vertices from the knowledge of a perturbed version of the eigenspaces of its adjacency matrix $W$. For instance, this situation arises for stationary signals on graphs or for Markov chains observed at random times. Our approach is based on minimizing a cost function given by the Frobenius norm of the commutator $\mathsf{A} \mathsf{B}-\mathsf{B} \mathsf{A}$ between symmetric matrices $\mathsf{A}$ and $\mathsf{B}$. In the Erdős-Rényi model with no self-loops, we show that identifiability (i.e., the ability to reconstruct $W$ from the knowledge of its eigenspaces) follows a sharp phase transition on the expected number of edges with threshold function $N\log N/2$. Given an estimation of the eigenspaces based on a $n$-sample, we provide support selection procedures from theoretical and practical point of views. In particular, when deleting an edge from the active support, our study unveils that our test statistic is the order of $\mathcal O(1/n)$ when we overestimate the true support and lower bounded by a positive constant when the estimated support is smaller than the true support. This feature leads to a powerful practical support estimation procedure. Simulated and real life numerical experiments assert our new methodology.