Hongxin Wei

Shuoyuan Wang, Jindong Wang, HuaJun Xi et al.

Human Activity Recognition (HAR) models often suffer from performance degradation in real-world applications due to distribution shifts in activity patterns across individuals. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) is an emerging learning paradigm that aims to utilize the test stream to adjust predictions in real-time inference, which has not been explored in HAR before. However, the high computational cost of optimization-based TTA algorithms makes it intractable to run on resource-constrained edge devices. In this paper, we propose an Optimization-Free Test-Time Adaptation (OFTTA) framework for sensor-based HAR. OFTTA adjusts the feature extractor and linear classifier simultaneously in an optimization-free manner. For the feature extractor, we propose Exponential DecayTest-time Normalization (EDTN) to replace the conventional batch normalization (CBN) layers. EDTN combines CBN and Test-time batch Normalization (TBN) to extract reliable features against domain shifts with TBN's influence decreasing exponentially in deeper layers. For the classifier, we adjust the prediction by computing the distance between the feature and the prototype, which is calculated by a maintained support set. In addition, the update of the support set is based on the pseudo label, which can benefit from reliable features extracted by EDTN. Extensive experiments on three public cross-person HAR datasets and two different TTA settings demonstrate that OFTTA outperforms the state-of-the-art TTA approaches in both classification performance and computational efficiency. Finally, we verify the superiority of our proposed OFTTA on edge devices, indicating possible deployment in real applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/Claydon-Wang/OFTTA.

Fanhu Zeng, Zhen Cheng, Fei Zhu et al.

Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection, aiming to distinguish outliers from known categories, has gained prominence in practical scenarios. Recently, the advent of vision-language models (VLM) has heightened interest in enhancing OOD detection for VLM through few-shot tuning. However, existing methods mainly focus on optimizing global prompts, ignoring refined utilization of local information with regard to outliers. Motivated by this, we freeze global prompts and introduce Local-Prompt, a novel coarse-to-fine tuning paradigm to emphasize regional enhancement with local prompts. Our method comprises two integral components: global prompt guided negative augmentation and local prompt enhanced regional regularization. The former utilizes frozen, coarse global prompts as guiding cues to incorporate negative augmentation, thereby leveraging local outlier knowledge. The latter employs trainable local prompts and a regional regularization to capture local information effectively, aiding in outlier identification. We also propose regional-related metric to empower the enrichment of OOD detection. Moreover, since our approach explores enhancing local prompts only, it can be seamlessly integrated with trained global prompts during inference to boost the performance. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of our method. Notably, our method reduces average FPR95 by 5.17% against state-of-the-art method in 4-shot tuning on challenging ImageNet-1k dataset, even outperforming 16-shot results of previous methods. Code is released at https://github.com/AuroraZengfh/Local-Prompt.

Hongxin Wei, Renchunzi Xie, Hao Cheng et al.

Detecting out-of-distribution inputs is critical for safe deployment of machine learning models in the real world. However, neural networks are known to suffer from the overconfidence issue, where they produce abnormally high confidence for both in- and out-of-distribution inputs. In this work, we show that this issue can be mitigated through Logit Normalization (LogitNorm) -- a simple fix to the cross-entropy loss -- by enforcing a constant vector norm on the logits in training. Our method is motivated by the analysis that the norm of the logit keeps increasing during training, leading to overconfident output. Our key idea behind LogitNorm is thus to decouple the influence of output's norm during network optimization. Trained with LogitNorm, neural networks produce highly distinguishable confidence scores between in- and out-of-distribution data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of LogitNorm, reducing the average FPR95 by up to 42.30% on common benchmarks.

Hao Chen, Jindong Wang, Ankit Shah et al.

Pre-training on large-scale datasets and then fine-tuning on downstream tasks have become a standard practice in deep learning. However, pre-training data often contain label noise that may adversely affect the generalization of the model. This paper aims to understand the nature of noise in pre-training datasets and to mitigate its impact on downstream tasks. More specifically, through extensive experiments of supervised pre-training models on synthetic noisy ImageNet-1K and YFCC15M datasets, we demonstrate that while slight noise in pre-training can benefit in-domain (ID) transfer performance, where the training and testing data share the same distribution, it always deteriorates out-of-domain (OOD) performance, where training and testing data distribution are different. We empirically verify that the reason behind is noise in pre-training shapes the feature space differently. We then propose a light-weight black-box tuning method (NMTune) to affine the feature space to mitigate the malignant effect of noise and improve generalization on both ID and OOD tasks, considering one may not be able to fully fine-tune or even access the pre-trained models. We conduct practical experiments on popular vision and language models that are pre-trained on noisy data for evaluation of our approach. Our analysis and results show the importance of this interesting and novel research direction, which we term Noisy Model Learning.

Hongxin Wei, Huiping Zhuang, Renchunzi Xie et al.

In the presence of noisy labels, designing robust loss functions is critical for securing the generalization performance of deep neural networks. Cross Entropy (CE) loss has been shown to be not robust to noisy labels due to its unboundedness. To alleviate this issue, existing works typically design specialized robust losses with the symmetric condition, which usually lead to the underfitting issue. In this paper, our key idea is to induce a loss bound at the logit level, thus universally enhancing the noise robustness of existing losses. Specifically, we propose logit clipping (LogitClip), which clamps the norm of the logit vector to ensure that it is upper bounded by a constant. In this manner, CE loss equipped with our LogitClip method is effectively bounded, mitigating the overfitting to examples with noisy labels. Moreover, we present theoretical analyses to certify the noise-tolerant ability of LogitClip. Extensive experiments show that LogitClip not only significantly improves the noise robustness of CE loss, but also broadly enhances the generalization performance of popular robust losses.

Minghao Liu, Zonglin Di, Jiaheng Wei et al.

Large-scale data collection is essential for developing personalized training data, mitigating the shortage of training data, and fine-tuning specialized models. However, creating high-quality datasets quickly and accurately remains a challenge due to annotation errors, the substantial time and costs associated with human labor. To address these issues, we propose Automatic Dataset Construction (ADC), an innovative methodology that automates dataset creation with negligible cost and high efficiency. Taking the image classification task as a starting point, ADC leverages LLMs for the detailed class design and code generation to collect relevant samples via search engines, significantly reducing the need for manual annotation and speeding up the data generation process. Despite these advantages, ADC also encounters real-world challenges such as label errors (label noise) and imbalanced data distributions (label bias). We provide open-source software that incorporates existing methods for label error detection, robust learning under noisy and biased data, ensuring a higher-quality training data and more robust model training procedure. Furthermore, we design three benchmark datasets focused on label noise detection, label noise learning, and class-imbalanced learning. These datasets are vital because there are few existing datasets specifically for label noise detection, despite its importance. Finally, we evaluate the performance of existing popular methods on these datasets, thereby facilitating further research in the field.

Huiping Zhuang, Zhenyu Weng, Hongxin Wei et al.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) learns a classification model with training data of different classes arising progressively. Existing CIL either suffers from serious accuracy loss due to catastrophic forgetting, or invades data privacy by revisiting used exemplars. Inspired by linear learning formulations, we propose an analytic class-incremental learning (ACIL) with absolute memorization of past knowledge while avoiding breaching of data privacy (i.e., without storing historical data). The absolute memorization is demonstrated in the sense that class-incremental learning using ACIL given present data would give identical results to that from its joint-learning counterpart which consumes both present and historical samples. This equality is theoretically validated. Data privacy is ensured since no historical data are involved during the learning process. Empirical validations demonstrate ACIL's competitive accuracy performance with near-identical results for various incremental task settings (e.g., 5-50 phases). This also allows ACIL to outperform the state-of-the-art methods for large-phase scenarios (e.g., 25 and 50 phases).

Hongxin Wei, Lue Tao, Renchunzi Xie et al.

Deep neural networks usually perform poorly when the training dataset suffers from extreme class imbalance. Recent studies found that directly training with out-of-distribution data (i.e., open-set samples) in a semi-supervised manner would harm the generalization performance. In this work, we theoretically show that out-of-distribution data can still be leveraged to augment the minority classes from a Bayesian perspective. Based on this motivation, we propose a novel method called Open-sampling, which utilizes open-set noisy labels to re-balance the class priors of the training dataset. For each open-set instance, the label is sampled from our pre-defined distribution that is complementary to the distribution of original class priors. We empirically show that Open-sampling not only re-balances the class priors but also encourages the neural network to learn separable representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed method significantly outperforms existing data re-balancing methods and can boost the performance of existing state-of-the-art methods.

Jianguo Huang, Huajun Xi, Linjun Zhang et al.

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated, leading to large prediction sets in conformal prediction. To address this issue, we propose a novel algorithm named $\textit{Sorted Adaptive Prediction Sets}$ (SAPS), which discards all the probability values except for the maximum softmax probability. The key idea behind SAPS is to minimize the dependence of the non-conformity score on the probability values while retaining the uncertainty information. In this manner, SAPS can produce compact prediction sets and communicate instance-wise uncertainty. Extensive experiments validate that SAPS not only lessens the prediction sets but also broadly enhances the conditional coverage rate of prediction sets.

Shiyu Tian, Hongxin Wei, Yiqun Wang et al.

Partial-label learning (PLL) is an important weakly supervised learning problem, which allows each training example to have a candidate label set instead of a single ground-truth label. Identification-based methods have been widely explored to tackle label ambiguity issues in PLL, which regard the true label as a latent variable to be identified. However, identifying the true labels accurately and completely remains challenging, causing noise in pseudo labels during model training. In this paper, we propose a new method called CroSel, which leverages historical predictions from the model to identify true labels for most training examples. First, we introduce a cross selection strategy, which enables two deep models to select true labels of partially labeled data for each other. Besides, we propose a novel consistency regularization term called co-mix to avoid sample waste and tiny noise caused by false selection. In this way, CroSel can pick out the true labels of most examples with high precision. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of CroSel, which consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets. Additionally, our method achieves over 90\% accuracy and quantity for selecting true labels on CIFAR-type datasets under various settings.

Xiaobo Xia, Jiale Liu, Shaokun Zhang et al.

Coreset selection is powerful in reducing computational costs and accelerating data processing for deep learning algorithms. It strives to identify a small subset from large-scale data, so that training only on the subset practically performs on par with full data. Practitioners regularly desire to identify the smallest possible coreset in realistic scenes while maintaining comparable model performance, to minimize costs and maximize acceleration. Motivated by this desideratum, for the first time, we pose the problem of refined coreset selection, in which the minimal coreset size under model performance constraints is explored. Moreover, to address this problem, we propose an innovative method, which maintains optimization priority order over the model performance and coreset size, and efficiently optimizes them in the coreset selection procedure. Theoretically, we provide the convergence guarantee of the proposed method. Empirically, extensive experiments confirm its superiority compared with previous strategies, often yielding better model performance with smaller coreset sizes.

Yuzhou Cao, Hussein Mozannar, Lei Feng et al.

Enabling machine learning classifiers to defer their decision to a downstream expert when the expert is more accurate will ensure improved safety and performance. This objective can be achieved with the learning-to-defer framework which aims to jointly learn how to classify and how to defer to the expert. In recent studies, it has been theoretically shown that popular estimators for learning to defer parameterized with softmax provide unbounded estimates for the likelihood of deferring which makes them uncalibrated. However, it remains unknown whether this is due to the widely used softmax parameterization and if we can find a softmax-based estimator that is both statistically consistent and possesses a valid probability estimator. In this work, we first show that the cause of the miscalibrated and unbounded estimator in prior literature is due to the symmetric nature of the surrogate losses used and not due to softmax. We then propose a novel statistically consistent asymmetric softmax-based surrogate loss that can produce valid estimates without the issue of unboundedness. We further analyze the non-asymptotic properties of our method and empirically validate its performance and calibration on benchmark datasets.

Renchunzi Xie, Hongxin Wei, Lei Feng et al.

Estimating the generalization performance is practically challenging on out-of-distribution (OOD) data without ground-truth labels. While previous methods emphasize the connection between distribution difference and OOD accuracy, we show that a large domain gap not necessarily leads to a low test accuracy. In this paper, we investigate this problem from the perspective of feature separability empirically and theoretically. Specifically, we propose a dataset-level score based upon feature dispersion to estimate the test accuracy under distribution shift. Our method is inspired by desirable properties of features in representation learning: high inter-class dispersion and high intra-class compactness. Our analysis shows that inter-class dispersion is strongly correlated with the model accuracy, while intra-class compactness does not reflect the generalization performance on OOD data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in both prediction performance and computational efficiency.

Senlin Shu, Shuo He, Haobo Wang et al.

In contrast to the standard learning paradigm where all classes can be observed in training data, learning with augmented classes (LAC) tackles the problem where augmented classes unobserved in the training data may emerge in the test phase. Previous research showed that given unlabeled data, an unbiased risk estimator (URE) can be derived, which can be minimized for LAC with theoretical guarantees. However, this URE is only restricted to the specific type of one-versus-rest loss functions for multi-class classification, making it not flexible enough when the loss needs to be changed with the dataset in practice. In this paper, we propose a generalized URE that can be equipped with arbitrary loss functions while maintaining the theoretical guarantees, given unlabeled data for LAC. To alleviate the issue of negative empirical risk commonly encountered by previous studies, we further propose a novel risk-penalty regularization term. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Xin Cheng, Yuzhou Cao, Haobo Wang et al.

Learning with rejection is an important framework that can refrain from making predictions to avoid critical mispredictions by balancing between prediction and rejection. Previous studies on cost-based rejection only focused on the classification setting, which cannot handle the continuous and infinite target space in the regression setting. In this paper, we investigate a novel regression problem called regression with cost-based rejection, where the model can reject to make predictions on some examples given certain rejection costs. To solve this problem, we first formulate the expected risk for this problem and then derive the Bayes optimal solution, which shows that the optimal model should reject to make predictions on the examples whose variance is larger than the rejection cost when the mean squared error is used as the evaluation metric. Furthermore, we propose to train the model by a surrogate loss function that considers rejection as binary classification and we provide conditions for the model consistency, which implies that the Bayes optimal solution can be recovered by our proposed surrogate loss. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Wenyu Jiang, Hao Cheng, Mingcai Chen et al.

Modern neural networks are known to give overconfident prediction for out-of-distribution inputs when deployed in the open world. It is common practice to leverage a surrogate outlier dataset to regularize the model during training, and recent studies emphasize the role of uncertainty in designing the sampling strategy for outlier dataset. However, the OOD samples selected solely based on predictive uncertainty can be biased towards certain types, which may fail to capture the full outlier distribution. In this work, we empirically show that diversity is critical in sampling outliers for OOD detection performance. Motivated by the observation, we propose a straightforward and novel sampling strategy named DOS (Diverse Outlier Sampling) to select diverse and informative outliers. Specifically, we cluster the normalized features at each iteration, and the most informative outlier from each cluster is selected for model training with absent category loss. With DOS, the sampled outliers efficiently shape a globally compact decision boundary between ID and OOD data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of DOS, reducing the average FPR95 by up to 25.79% on CIFAR-100 with TI-300K.

Huanlei Guo, Hongxin Wei, Bingyi Jing

Recent text-to-image (T2I) diffusion and flow-matching models can produce highly realistic images from natural language prompts. In practical scenarios, T2I systems are often run in a ``generate--then--select'' mode: many seeds are sampled and only a few images are kept for use. However, this pipeline is highly resource-intensive since each candidate requires tens to hundreds of denoising steps, and evaluation metrics such as CLIPScore and ImageReward are post-hoc. In this work, we address this inefficiency by introducing Probe-Select, a plug-in module that enables efficient evaluation of image quality within the generation process. We observe that certain intermediate denoiser activations, even at early timesteps, encode a stable coarse structure, object layout and spatial arrangement--that strongly correlates with final image fidelity. Probe-Select exploits this property by predicting final quality scores directly from early activations, allowing unpromising seeds to be terminated early. Across diffusion and flow-matching backbones, our experiments show that early evaluation at only 20\% of the trajectory accurately ranks candidate seeds and enables selective continuation. This strategy reduces sampling cost by over 60\% while improving the quality of the retained images, demonstrating that early structural signals can effectively guide selective generation without altering the underlying generative model. Code is available at https://github.com/Guhuary/ProbeSelect.

Huiping Zhuang, Yizhu Chen, Di Fang et al.

Class incremental learning (CIL) trains a network on sequential tasks with separated categories in each task but suffers from catastrophic forgetting, where models quickly lose previously learned knowledge when acquiring new tasks. The generalized CIL (GCIL) aims to address the CIL problem in a more real-world scenario, where incoming data have mixed data categories and unknown sample size distribution. Existing attempts for the GCIL either have poor performance or invade data privacy by saving exemplars. In this paper, we propose a new exemplar-free GCIL technique named generalized analytic continual learning (GACL). The GACL adopts analytic learning (a gradient-free training technique) and delivers an analytical (i.e., closed-form) solution to the GCIL scenario. This solution is derived via decomposing the incoming data into exposed and unexposed classes, thereby attaining a weight-invariant property, a rare yet valuable property supporting an equivalence between incremental learning and its joint training. Such an equivalence is crucial in GCIL settings as data distributions among different tasks no longer pose challenges to adopting our GACL. Theoretically, this equivalence property is validated through matrix analysis tools. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments where, compared with existing GCIL methods, our GACL exhibits a consistently leading performance across various datasets and GCIL settings. Source code is available at https://github.com/CHEN-YIZHU/GACL.

Zhenlong Liu, Hao Zeng, Hongxin Wei

Benchmark data contamination has become a central challenge in LLM evaluation: when evaluation examples appear in the training data of one or more audited models, reported performance can be inflated and cross-model comparisons become unreliable. A broad line of training-data detection work designs scores to quantify how strongly a model memorizes a given data point, but these score-based methods lack theoretical guarantees. Recent conformal approaches provide provable false-identification control for a single model; however, applying them separately to each model can produce model-specific benchmarks, undermining fair comparison across models. In this work, we formalize multi-model benchmark decontamination as a joint selection problem and propose Joint Envelope Conformal Selection (JECS), a conformal procedure that enables global contamination rate (GCR) control under stated assumptions. Specifically, JECS computes per-model conformal p-values, aggregates them by the per-item maximum, and reconstructs a conservative envelope of the max-p null distribution from right-tail observations above a data-driven threshold. By applying the adaptive Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure to the envelope-rescaled values, we select a benchmark with provable GCR control. Extensive experiments across various models and benchmarks demonstrate that JECS achieves higher power than the max-p baseline while consistently maintaining the target GCR control.

Hyeong Kyu Choi, Maxim Khanov, Hongxin Wei et al.

Dataset contamination, where evaluation datasets overlap with pre-training corpora, inflates performance metrics and undermines the reliability of model evaluations. Measuring dataset contamination thus becomes essential to ensure that performance evaluations genuinely reflect a model's ability to generalize to unseen data, rather than relying on memorized examples. To address this problem, we propose Kernel Divergence Score (KDS), a novel method that evaluates dataset contamination by computing the divergence between the kernel similarity matrix of sample embeddings, before and after fine-tuning on the benchmark dataset. Leveraging the insight that fine-tuning affects unseen samples more significantly than seen ones, KDS provides a reliable measure of contamination. Through extensive experiments on controlled contamination scenarios, KDS demonstrates a near-perfect correlation with contamination levels and outperforms existing baselines. Additionally, we perform comprehensive ablation studies to analyze the impact of key design choices, providing deeper insights into the components and effectiveness of KDS. These ablations highlight the importance of leveraging fine-grained kernel-based information and confirm the reliability of the proposed framework across diverse datasets and settings. Code is released in https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/kernel-divergence-score.

Shuoyuan Wang, Jindong Wang, Guoqing Wang et al.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have emerged as formidable tools, showing their strong capability in handling various open-vocabulary tasks in image recognition, text-driven visual content generation, and visual chatbots, to name a few. In recent years, considerable efforts and resources have been devoted to adaptation methods for improving downstream performance of VLMs, particularly on parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods like prompt learning. However, a crucial aspect that has been largely overlooked is the confidence calibration problem in fine-tuned VLMs, which could greatly reduce reliability when deploying such models in the real world. This paper bridges the gap by systematically investigating the confidence calibration problem in the context of prompt learning and reveals that existing calibration methods are insufficient to address the problem, especially in the open-vocabulary setting. To solve the problem, we present a simple and effective approach called Distance-Aware Calibration (DAC), which is based on scaling the temperature using as guidance the distance between predicted text labels and base classes. The experiments with 7 distinct prompt learning methods applied across 11 diverse downstream datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DAC, which achieves high efficacy without sacrificing the inference speed. Our code is available at https://github.com/ml-stat-Sustech/CLIP_Calibration.

Hengxiang Zhang, Hongfu Gao, Qiang Hu et al.

With the rapid development of Large language models (LLMs), understanding the capabilities of LLMs in identifying unsafe content has become increasingly important. While previous works have introduced several benchmarks to evaluate the safety risk of LLMs, the community still has a limited understanding of current LLMs' capability to recognize illegal and unsafe content in Chinese contexts. In this work, we present a Chinese safety benchmark (ChineseSafe) to facilitate research on the content safety of large language models. To align with the regulations for Chinese Internet content moderation, our ChineseSafe contains 205,034 examples across 4 classes and 10 sub-classes of safety issues. For Chinese contexts, we add several special types of illegal content: political sensitivity, pornography, and variant/homophonic words. Moreover, we employ two methods to evaluate the legal risks of popular LLMs, including open-sourced models and APIs. The results reveal that many LLMs exhibit vulnerability to certain types of safety issues, leading to legal risks in China. Our work provides a guideline for developers and researchers to facilitate the safety of LLMs. Our results are also available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/SUSTech/ChineseSafe-Benchmark. Additionally, we release a test set comprising 200,000 examples, which is publicly accessible at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SUSTech/ChineseSafe.

Beier Luo, Shuoyuan Wang, Sharon Li et al.

Post-training of large language models is essential for adapting pre-trained language models (PLMs) to align with human preferences and downstream tasks. While PLMs typically exhibit well-calibrated confidence, post-trained language models (PoLMs) often suffer from over-confidence, assigning high confidence to both correct and incorrect outputs, which can undermine reliability in critical applications. A major obstacle in calibrating PoLMs is the scarcity of labeled data for individual downstream tasks. To address this, we propose Disagreement-Aware Confidence Alignment (DACA), a novel unsupervised method to optimize the parameters (e.g., temperature $τ$) in post-hoc confidence calibration. Our method is motivated by the under-confidence issue caused by prediction disagreement between the PLM and PoLM while aligning their confidence via temperature scaling. Theoretically, the PLM's confidence underestimates PoLM's prediction accuracy on disagreement examples, causing a larger $τ$ and producing under-confident predictions. DACA mitigates this by selectively using only agreement examples for calibration, effectively decoupling the influence of disagreement. In this manner, our method avoids an overly large $τ$ in temperature scaling caused by disagreement examples, improving calibration performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, improving the average ECE of open-sourced and API-based LLMs (e.g. GPT-4o) by up to 15.08$\%$ on common benchmarks.

Qingyang Hao, Kongchang Zhou, Fang Kong et al.

Online Multiple Testing (OMT), a fundamental pillar of sequential statistical inference, traditionally evaluates the False Discovery Rate (FDR) and statistical power in isolation, obscuring the highly asymmetric costs of false positives and false negatives in modern automated pipelines. To unify this evaluation, we introduce $\textit{Weighted Regret}$. Under this metric, we prove the $\textit{Duality of Regret Conservation}$: purely deterministic procedures ensuring strict FDR control inevitably incur an $Ω(T)$ linear regret penalty, as threshold depletion during signal-sparse cold starts forces massive false negatives. Tailored for exogenous testing streams, we propose Decoupled-OMT (DOMT) as a baseline-agnostic meta-wrapper. By incorporating a history-decoupled, strictly non-negative random perturbation, DOMT rescues purely deterministic baselines from severe threshold depletion. Crucially, it preserves exact asymptotic safety in stationary environments and rigorously bounds finite-sample error inflation during cold-starts. Guaranteeing zero additional false negatives, it yields an order-optimal $Ω(\sqrt{T})$ regret reduction in bursty environments, with a derived ``Cold-Start Tax'' characterizing the exact phase transition of algorithmic superiority. Experiments validate that DOMT consistently curtails empirical weighted regret, achieving an order-optimal sublinear mitigation of threshold depletion to navigate the non-stationary Pareto frontier.

Shuoyuan Wang, Yiran Wang, Hongxin Wei

Data-driven approaches like deep learning are rapidly advancing planetary science, particularly in Mars exploration. Despite recent progress, most existing benchmarks remain confined to closed-set supervised visual tasks and do not support text-guided retrieval for geospatial discovery. We introduce MarsRetrieval, a retrieval benchmark for evaluating vision-language models for Martian geospatial discovery. MarsRetrieval includes three tasks: (1) paired image-text retrieval, (2) landform retrieval, and (3) global geo-localization, covering multiple spatial scales and diverse geomorphic origins. We propose a unified retrieval-centric protocol to benchmark multimodal embedding architectures, including contrastive dual-tower encoders and generative vision-language models. Our evaluation shows MarsRetrieval is challenging: even strong foundation models often fail to capture domain-specific geomorphic distinctions. We further show that domain-specific fine-tuning is critical for generalizable geospatial discovery in planetary settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/ml-stat-Sustech/MarsRetrieval

Jianguo Huang, Hao Zeng, Bingyi Jing et al.

Large reasoning models have shown strong performance through extended chain-of-thought reasoning, yet their computational cost remains significant. Probably approximately correct (PAC) reasoning provides statistical guarantees for efficient reasoning by adaptively switching between thinking and non-thinking models, but the guarantee holds only in the marginal case and does not provide exact conditional coverage. We propose G-PAC reasoning, a practical framework that provides PAC-style guarantees at the group level by partitioning the input space. We develop two instantiations: Group PAC (G-PAC) reasoning for known group structures and Clustered PAC (C-PAC) reasoning for unknown groupings. We prove that both G-PAC and C-PAC achieve group-conditional risk control, and that grouping can strictly improve efficiency over marginal PAC reasoning in heterogeneous settings. Our experiments on diverse reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that G-PAC and C-PAC successfully achieve group-conditional risk control while maintaining substantial computational savings.

Hao Zeng, Huipeng Huang, Xinhao Qu et al.

Data annotation often involves multiple sources with different cost-quality trade-offs, such as fast large language models (LLMs), slow reasoning models, and human experts. In this work, we study the problem of routing inputs to the most cost-efficient annotation source while controlling the labeling error on test instances. We propose \textbf{HyPAC}, a method that adaptively labels inputs to the most cost-efficient annotation source while providing distribution-free guarantees on annotation error. HyPAC calibrates two decision thresholds using importance sampling and upper confidence bounds, partitioning inputs into three regions based on uncertainty and routing each to the appropriate annotation source. We prove that HyPAC achieves the minimum expected cost with a probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantee on the annotation error, free of data distribution and pre-trained models. Experiments on common benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, reducing the annotation cost by 78.51\% while tightly controlling the annotation error.

Wenbo Liao, Huipeng Huang, Chen Jia et al.

Quantifying uncertainty is critical for the safe deployment of ranking models in real-world applications. Recent work offers a rigorous solution using conformal prediction in a full ranking scenario, which aims to construct prediction sets for the absolute ranks of test items based on the relative ranks of calibration items. However, relying on upper bounds of non-conformity scores renders the method overly conservative, resulting in substantially large prediction sets. To address this, we propose Distribution-informed Conformal Ranking (DCR), which produces efficient prediction sets by deriving the exact distribution of non-conformity scores. In particular, we find that the absolute ranks of calibration items follow Negative Hypergeometric distributions, conditional on their relative ranks. DCR thus uses the rank distribution to derive non-conformity score distribution and determine conformal thresholds. We provide theoretical guarantees that DCR achieves improved efficiency over the baseline while ensuring valid coverage under mild assumptions. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of DCR, reducing average prediction set size by up to 36%, while maintaining valid coverage.

Lue Tao, Lei Feng, Hongxin Wei et al.

Adversarial training, originally designed to resist test-time adversarial examples, has shown to be promising in mitigating training-time availability attacks. This defense ability, however, is challenged in this paper. We identify a novel threat model named stability attack, which aims to hinder robust availability by slightly manipulating the training data. Under this threat, we show that adversarial training using a conventional defense budget $ε$ provably fails to provide test robustness in a simple statistical setting, where the non-robust features of the training data can be reinforced by $ε$-bounded perturbation. Further, we analyze the necessity of enlarging the defense budget to counter stability attacks. Finally, comprehensive experiments demonstrate that stability attacks are harmful on benchmark datasets, and thus the adaptive defense is necessary to maintain robustness. Our code is available at https://github.com/TLMichael/Hypocritical-Perturbation.

Yiran Wang, Shuoyuan Wang, Zhaoran Wei et al.

Planetary surfaces are typically analyzed using high-level semantic concepts in natural language, yet vast orbital image archives remain organized at the pixel level. This mismatch limits scalable, open-ended exploration of planetary surfaces. Here we present MarScope, a planetary-scale vision-language framework enabling natural language-driven, label-free mapping of Martian landforms. MarScope aligns planetary images and text in a shared semantic space, trained on over 200,000 curated image-text pairs. This framework transforms global geomorphic mapping on Mars by replacing pre-defined classifications with flexible semantic retrieval, enabling arbitrary user queries across the entire planet in 5 seconds with F1 scores up to 0.978. Applications further show that it extends beyond morphological classification to facilitate process-oriented analysis and similarity-based geomorphological mapping at a planetary scale. MarScope establishes a new paradigm where natural language serves as a direct interface for scientific discovery over massive geospatial datasets.

Junxian Liu, Hao Zeng, Hongxin Wei

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP) inverts this paradigm by enforcing a predefined upper bound on set size and estimating the resulting coverage guarantee. However, the looseness induced by Markov's inequality within the BCP framework causes a significant gap between the estimated coverage bound and the empirical coverage. In this work, we introduce ST-BCP, a novel method that introduces a data-dependent transformation of nonconformity scores to narrow the coverage gap. In particular, we develop a computable transformation and prove that it outperforms the baseline identity transformation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, reducing the average coverage gap from 4.20\% to 1.12\% on common benchmarks.

Huajun Xi, Jianguo Huang, Kangdao Liu et al.

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate classifiers, assuming that confidence calibration benefits conformal prediction. However, the specific impact of confidence calibration on conformal prediction remains underexplored. In this work, we make two key discoveries about the impact of confidence calibration methods on adaptive conformal prediction. Firstly, we empirically show that current confidence calibration methods (e.g., temperature scaling) typically lead to larger prediction sets in adaptive conformal prediction. Secondly, by investigating the role of temperature value, we observe that high-confidence predictions can enhance the efficiency of adaptive conformal prediction. Theoretically, we prove that predictions with higher confidence result in smaller prediction sets on expectation. This finding implies that the rescaling parameters in these calibration methods, when optimized with cross-entropy loss, might counteract the goal of generating efficient prediction sets. To address this issue, we propose Conformal Temperature Scaling (ConfTS), a variant of temperature scaling with a novel loss function designed to enhance the efficiency of prediction sets. This approach can be extended to optimize the parameters of other post-hoc methods of confidence calibration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method improves existing adaptive conformal prediction methods in classification tasks, especially with LLMs.

Kangdao Liu, Hao Zeng, Jianguo Huang et al.

Conformal prediction, as an emerging uncertainty quantification technique, typically functions as post-hoc processing for the outputs of trained classifiers. To optimize the classifier for maximum predictive efficiency, Conformal Training rectifies the training objective with a regularization that minimizes the average prediction set size at a specific error rate. However, the regularization term inevitably deteriorates the classification accuracy and leads to suboptimal efficiency of conformal predictors. To address this issue, we introduce \textbf{Conformal Adapter} (C-Adapter), an adapter-based tuning method to enhance the efficiency of conformal predictors without sacrificing accuracy. In particular, we implement the adapter as a class of intra order-preserving functions and tune it with our proposed loss that maximizes the discriminability of non-conformity scores between correctly and randomly matched data-label pairs. Using C-Adapter, the model tends to produce extremely high non-conformity scores for incorrect labels, thereby enhancing the efficiency of prediction sets across different coverage rates. Extensive experiments demonstrate that C-Adapter can effectively adapt various classifiers for efficient prediction sets, as well as enhance the conformal training method.

Hao Chen, Zihan Wang, Ran Tao et al.

Foundation models are usually pre-trained on large-scale datasets and then adapted to downstream tasks through tuning. However, the large-scale pre-training datasets, often inaccessible or too expensive to handle, can contain label noise that may adversely affect the generalization of the model and pose unexpected risks. This paper stands out as the first work to comprehensively understand and analyze the nature of noise in pre-training datasets and then effectively mitigate its impacts on downstream tasks. Specifically, through extensive experiments of fully-supervised and image-text contrastive pre-training on synthetic noisy ImageNet-1K, YFCC15M, and CC12M datasets, we demonstrate that, while slight noise in pre-training can benefit in-domain (ID) performance, where the training and testing data share a similar distribution, it always deteriorates out-of-domain (OOD) performance, where training and testing distributions are significantly different. These observations are agnostic to scales of pre-training datasets, pre-training noise types, model architectures, pre-training objectives, downstream tuning methods, and downstream applications. We empirically ascertain that the reason behind this is that the pre-training noise shapes the feature space differently. We then propose a tuning method (NMTune) to affine the feature space to mitigate the malignant effect of noise and improve generalization, which is applicable in both parameter-efficient and black-box tuning manners. We additionally conduct extensive experiments on popular vision and language models, including APIs, which are supervised and self-supervised pre-trained on realistic noisy data for evaluation. Our analysis and results demonstrate the importance of this novel and fundamental research direction, which we term as Noisy Model Learning.

Hao Zeng, Kangdao Liu, Bingyi Jing et al.

Conformal prediction is a popular framework of uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. To uphold the exchangeability assumption, many conformal prediction methods necessitate an additional holdout set for parameter tuning. Yet, the impact of violating this principle on coverage remains underexplored, making it ambiguous in practical applications. In this work, we empirically find that the tuning bias - the coverage gap introduced by leveraging the same dataset for tuning and calibration, is negligible for simple parameter tuning in many conformal prediction methods. In particular, we observe the scaling law of the tuning bias: this bias increases with parameter space complexity and decreases with calibration set size. Formally, we establish a theoretical framework to quantify the tuning bias and provide rigorous proof for the scaling law of the tuning bias by deriving its upper bound. In the end, we discuss how to reduce the tuning bias, guided by the theories we developed.

Jianguo Huang, Jianqing Song, Xuanning Zhou et al.

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical framework that generates prediction intervals or sets with guaranteed coverage probability. While CP algorithms have evolved beyond traditional classifiers and regressors to sophisticated deep learning models like deep neural networks (DNNs), graph neural networks (GNNs), and large language models (LLMs), existing CP libraries often lack the model support and scalability for large-scale DL scenarios. This paper introduces TorchCP, a PyTorch-native library designed to integrate state-of-the-art CP algorithms into deep learning techniques, including DNN-based classifier/regressor, GNN, and LLM. Released under the LGPL-3.0 license, TorchCP comprises about 16k lines of code, validated with 100% unit test coverage and detailed documentation. Notably, TorchCP enables CP-specific training algorithms, online prediction, and GPU-accelerated batch processing, achieving up to 90% reduction in inference time on large datasets. With its low-coupling design, comprehensive suite of advanced methods, and full GPU scalability, TorchCP empowers researchers and practitioners to enhance uncertainty quantification across cutting-edge applications.

Zhenlong Liu, Lei Feng, Huiping Zhuang et al.

Machine learning models are susceptible to membership inference attacks (MIAs), which aim to infer whether a sample is in the training set. Existing work utilizes gradient ascent to enlarge the loss variance of training data, alleviating the privacy risk. However, optimizing toward a reverse direction may cause the model parameters to oscillate near local minima, leading to instability and suboptimal performance. In this work, we propose a novel method -- Convex-Concave Loss, which enables a high variance of training loss distribution by gradient descent. Our method is motivated by the theoretical analysis that convex losses tend to decrease the loss variance during training. Thus, our key idea behind CCL is to reduce the convexity of loss functions with a concave term. Trained with CCL, neural networks produce losses with high variance for training data, reinforcing the defense against MIAs. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of CCL, achieving state-of-the-art balance in the privacy-utility trade-off.

Zhenlong Liu, Wenyu Jiang, Feng Zhou et al.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) aim to estimate whether a specific data point was used in the training of a given model. Previous attacks often utilize multiple reference models to approximate the conditional score distribution, leading to significant computational overhead. While recent work leverages quantile regression to estimate conditional thresholds, it fails to capture epistemic uncertainty, resulting in bias in low-density regions. In this work, we propose a novel approach - Bayesian Membership Inference Attack (BMIA), which performs conditional attack through Bayesian inference. In particular, we transform a trained reference model into Bayesian neural networks by Laplace approximation, enabling the direct estimation of the conditional score distribution by probabilistic model parameters. Our method addresses both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty with only a reference model, enabling efficient and powerful MIA. Extensive experiments on five datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of BMIA.

Huajun Xi, Kangdao Liu, Hao Zeng et al.

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that adaptively construct prediction sets to accommodate distribution shifts. However, existing algorithms typically assume perfect label accuracy which rarely holds in practice. In this work, we investigate the robustness of online conformal prediction under uniform label noise with a known noise rate, in both constant and dynamic learning rate schedules. We show that label noise causes a persistent gap between the actual mis-coverage rate and the desired rate $α$, leading to either overestimated or underestimated coverage guarantees. To address this issue, we propose Noise Robust Online Conformal Prediction (dubbed NR-OCP) by updating the threshold with a novel robust pinball loss, which provides an unbiased estimate of clean pinball loss without requiring ground-truth labels. Our theoretical analysis shows that NR-OCP eliminates the coverage gap in both constant and dynamic learning rate schedules, achieving a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ for both empirical and expected coverage errors under uniform label noise. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by achieving both precise coverage and improved efficiency.

Kangdao Liu, Huajun Xi, Chi-Man Vong et al.

Selecting a subset of promising candidates from a large pool is crucial across various scientific and real-world applications. Conformal selection offers a distribution-free and model-agnostic framework for candidate selection with uncertainty quantification. While effective in offline settings, its application to online scenarios, where data arrives sequentially, poses challenges. Notably, conformal selection permits the deselection of previously selected candidates, which is incompatible with applications requiring irreversible selection decisions. This limitation is particularly evident in resource-intensive sequential processes, such as drug discovery, where advancing a compound to subsequent stages renders reversal impractical. To address this issue, we extend conformal selection to an online Accept-to-Reject Changes (ARC) procedure: non-selected data points can be reconsidered for selection later, and once a candidate is selected, the decision is irreversible. Specifically, we propose a novel conformal selection method, Online Conformal Selection with Accept-to-Reject Changes (dubbed OCS-ARC), which incorporates online Benjamini-Hochberg procedure into the candidate selection process. We provide theoretical guarantees that OCS-ARC controls the false discovery rate (FDR) at or below the nominal level at any timestep under both i.i.d. and exchangeable data assumptions. Additionally, we theoretically show that our approach naturally extends to multivariate response settings. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that OCS-ARC significantly improves selection power over the baseline while maintaining valid FDR control across all examined timesteps.

Yufei Zhang, Yicheng Xu, Hongxin Wei et al.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) enables pre-trained models to bridge the gap between source and target datasets using unlabeled test data, addressing domain shifts caused by corruptions like weather changes, noise, or sensor malfunctions in test time. Multi-Modal Continual Test-Time Adaptation (MM-CTTA), as an extension of standard TTA, further allows models to handle multi-modal inputs and adapt to continuously evolving target domains. However, MM-CTTA faces critical challenges such as catastrophic forgetting and reliability bias, which are rarely addressed effectively under multi-modal corruption scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, Multi-modality Dynamic Analytic Adapter (MDAA), to tackle MM-CTTA tasks. MDAA introduces analytic learning,a closed-form training technique,through Analytic Classifiers (ACs) to mitigate catastrophic forgetting. Furthermore, we design the Dynamic Late Fusion Mechanism (DLFM) to dynamically select and integrate reliable information from different modalities. Extensive experiments show that MDAA achieves state-of-the-art performance across the proposed tasks.

Wenyu Jiang, Zhenlong Liu, Zejian Xie et al.

The ever-increasing fine-tuning cost of large-scale pre-trained models gives rise to the importance of dataset pruning, which aims to reduce dataset size while maintaining task performance. However, existing dataset pruning methods require training on the entire dataset, which is impractical for large-scale pre-trained models. In this paper, we propose a straightforward, novel, and training-free hardness score named Distorting-based Learning Complexity (DLC), to identify informative images and instructions from the downstream dataset efficiently. Our method is motivated by the observation that easy samples learned faster can also be learned with fewer parameters. Specifically, we define the Learning Complexity to quantify sample hardness and utilize a lightweight weights masking process for fast estimation, instead of the costly SGD optimization. Based on DLC, we further design a flexible under-sampling with randomness (dubbed FlexRand), replacing the top-K strategy, to alleviate the severe subset distribution shift. Extensive experiments with downstream image and instructions dataset pruning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach. In the images pruning benchmark, DLC significantly reduces the pruning time by 35x while establishing state-of-the-art performance with FlexRand.

Beier Luo, Cheng Wang, Hongxin Wei et al.

Post-training improves large language models (LLMs) but often worsens confidence calibration, leading to systematic overconfidence. Recent unsupervised post-hoc methods for post-trained LMs (PoLMs) mitigate this by aligning PoLM confidence to that of well-calibrated pre-trained counterparts. However, framing calibration as static output-distribution matching overlooks the inference-time dynamics introduced by post-training. In particular, we show that calibration errors arise from two regimes: (i) confidence drift, where final confidence inflates despite largely consistent intermediate decision processes, and (ii) process drift, where intermediate inference pathways diverge. Guided by this diagnosis, we propose Dual-Align, an unsupervised post-hoc framework for dual alignment in confidence calibration. Dual-Align performs confidence alignment to correct confidence drift via final-distribution matching, and introduces process alignment to address process drift by locating the layer where trajectories diverge and realigning the stability of subsequent inference. This dual strategy learns a single temperature parameter that corrects both drift types without sacrificing post-training performance gains. Experiments show consistent improvements over baselines, reducing calibration errors and approaching a supervised oracle.

Huipeng Huang, Wenbo Liao, Huajun Xi et al.

Obtaining high-quality labels for large datasets is expensive, requiring massive annotations from human experts. While AI models offer a cost-effective alternative by predicting labels, their label quality is compromised by the unavoidable labeling errors. Existing methods mitigate this issue through selective labeling, where AI labels a subset and human labels the remainder. However, these methods lack theoretical guarantees on the quality of AI-assigned labels, often resulting in unacceptably high labeling error within the AI-labeled subset. To address this, we introduce \textbf{Conformal Labeling}, a novel method to identify instances where AI predictions can be provably trusted. This is achieved by controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), the proportion of incorrect labels within the selected subset. In particular, we construct a conformal $p$-value for each test instance by comparing AI models' predicted confidence to those of calibration instances mislabeled by AI models. Then, we select test instances whose $p$-values are below a data-dependent threshold, certifying AI models' predictions as trustworthy. We provide theoretical guarantees that Conformal Labeling controls the FDR below the nominal level, ensuring that a predefined fraction of AI-assigned labels is correct on average. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves tight FDR control with high power across various tasks, including image and text labeling, and LLM QA.

Hao Zeng, Jianguo Huang, Bingyi Jing et al.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have achieved remarkable progress in complex problem-solving tasks. Despite this success, LRMs typically suffer from high computational costs during deployment, highlighting a need for efficient inference. A popular direction of efficiency improvement is to switch the LRM between thinking and nonthinking modes dynamically. However, such approaches often introduce additional reasoning errors and lack statistical guarantees for the performance loss, which are critical for high-stakes applications. In this work, we propose Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) reasoning that controls the performance loss under the user-specified performance loss tolerance. In particular, we construct an upper confidence bound on the performance loss, formulated as a monotone function of the uncertainty score, and subsequently determine a threshold for switching to the nonthinking model. Theoretically, using the threshold to switch between the thinking and nonthinking modes ensures bounded performance loss in a distribution-free manner. Our comprehensive experiments on reasoning benchmarks show that the proposed method can save computational budgets and control the user-specified performance loss.

Zhenlong Liu, Hao Zeng, Weiran Huang et al.

Identifying training data within large-scale models is critical for copyright litigation, privacy auditing, and ensuring fair evaluation. The conventional approaches treat it as a simple binary classification task without statistical guarantees. A recent approach is designed to control the false discovery rate (FDR), but its guarantees rely on strong, easily violated assumptions. In this paper, we introduce Provable Training Data Identification (PTDI), a rigorous method that identifies a set of training data with strict false discovery rate (FDR) control. Specifically, our method computes p-values for each data point using a set of known unseen data, and then constructs a conservative estimator for the data usage proportion of the test set, which allows us to scale these p-values. Our approach then selects the final set of training data by identifying all points whose scaled p-values fall below a data-dependent threshold. This entire procedure enables the discovery of training data with provable, strict FDR control and significantly boosted power. Extensive experiments across a wide range of models (LLMs and VLMs), and datasets demonstrate that PTDI strictly controls the FDR and achieves higher power.

Qingyang Hao, Wenbo Liao, Bingyi Jing et al.

Selecting high-quality candidates from large-scale datasets is critically important in resource-constrained applications such as drug discovery, precision medicine, and the alignment of large language models. While conformal selection methods offer a rigorous solution with False Discovery Rate (FDR) control, their applicability is confined to single-threshold scenarios (i.e., y > c) and overlooks practical needs for multi-condition selection, such as conjunctive or disjunctive conditions. In this work, we propose the Multi-Condition Conformal Selection (MCCS) algorithm, which extends conformal selection to scenarios with multiple conditions. In particular, we introduce a novel nonconformity score with regional monotonicity for conjunctive conditions and a global Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure for disjunctive conditions, thereby establishing finite-sample FDR control with theoretical guarantees. The integration of these components enables the proposed method to achieve rigorous FDR-controlled selection in various multi-condition environments. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of MCCS over baselines, its generalizability across diverse condition combinations, different real-world modalities, and multi-task scalability.

Hengxiang Zhang, Hyeong Kyu Choi, Sharon Li et al.

Reasoning distillation has emerged as an efficient and powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, reasoning distillation may inadvertently cause benchmark contamination, where evaluation data included in distillation datasets can inflate performance metrics of distilled models. In this work, we formally define the task of distillation data detection, which is uniquely challenging due to the partial availability of distillation data. Then, we propose a novel and effective method Token Probability Deviation (TBD), which leverages the probability patterns of the generated output tokens. Our method is motivated by the analysis that distilled models tend to generate near-deterministic tokens for seen questions, while producing more low-probability tokens for unseen questions. Our key idea behind TBD is to quantify how far the generated tokens' probabilities deviate from a high reference probability. In effect, our method achieves competitive detection performance by producing lower scores for seen questions than for unseen questions. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, achieving an AUC of 0.918 and a TPR@1% FPR of 0.470 on the S1 dataset.

Xuanning Zhou, Hao Zeng, Xiaobo Xia et al.

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, providing prediction sets with coverage guarantees when calibrated on sufficient labeled data. However, in real-world applications where labeled data is often limited, standard CP can lead to coverage deviation and output overly large prediction sets. In this paper, we extend CP to the semi-supervised setting and propose SemiCP, leveraging both labeled data and unlabeled data for calibration. Specifically, we introduce a novel nonconformity score function, NNM, designed for unlabeled data. This function selects labeled data with similar pseudo-label scores to estimate nonconformity scores, integrating them into the calibration process to overcome sample size limitations. We theoretically demonstrate that, under mild assumptions, SemiCP provide asymptotically coverage guarantee for prediction sets. Extensive experiments further validate that our approach effectively reduces instability and inefficiency under limited calibration data, can be adapted to conditional coverage settings, and integrates seamlessly with existing CP methods.

Hongfu Gao, Feipeng Zhang, Hao Zeng et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on downstream tasks through in-context learning (ICL), which heavily relies on the demonstrations selected from annotated datasets. However, these datasets often exhibit long-tailed class distributions in real-world scenarios, leading to biased demonstration selection. In this work, we show that such class imbalances significantly degrade the ICL performance across various tasks, regardless of selection methods. Moreover, classical rebalancing methods, which focus solely on class weights, yield poor performance due to neglecting condition bias--skewed feature distributions within classes. To address this, we propose Reweighting with Conditional Bias (dubbed RCB), a simple and complementary approach to enhance ICL performance under class imbalance. In particular, RCB estimates conditional bias using a balanced subset and re-weights demonstration scores based on both class weight and conditional bias. In effect, RCB prevents over-selection from dominant classes while preserving the efficacy of current selection methods. Extensive experiments on common benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, improving the average accuracy of current selection methods by up to 5.42%.