Hanyang Liu

Boge Lyu, Qianye Yin, Iris Denise Tommelein et al.

The persistent volatility of construction material prices poses significant risks to cost estimation, budgeting, and project delivery, underscoring the urgent need for granular and scalable forecasting methods. This study develops a forecasting framework that leverages the Construction Specifications Institute (CSI) MasterFormat as the target data structure, enabling predictions at the six-digit section level and supporting detailed cost projections across a wide spectrum of building materials. To enhance predictive accuracy, the framework integrates explanatory variables such as raw material prices, commodity indexes, and macroeconomic indicators. Four time-series models, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Chronos-Bolt, were evaluated under both baseline configurations (using CSI data only) and extended versions with explanatory variables. Results demonstrate that incorporating explanatory variables significantly improves predictive performance across all models. Among the tested approaches, the LSTM model consistently achieved the highest accuracy, with RMSE values as low as 1.390 and MAPE values of 0.957, representing improvements of up to 59\% over the traditional statistical time-series model, ARIMA. Validation across multiple CSI divisions confirmed the framework's scalability, while Division 06 (Wood, Plastics, and Composites) is presented in detail as a demonstration case. This research offers a robust methodology that enables owners and contractors to improve budgeting practices and achieve more reliable cost estimation at the Definitive level.

Guanjie Zheng, Hanyang Liu, Kai Xu et al.

Traffic simulators act as an essential component in the operating and planning of transportation systems. Conventional traffic simulators usually employ a calibrated physical car-following model to describe vehicles' behaviors and their interactions with traffic environment. However, there is no universal physical model that can accurately predict the pattern of vehicle's behaviors in different situations. A fixed physical model tends to be less effective in a complicated environment given the non-stationary nature of traffic dynamics. In this paper, we formulate traffic simulation as an inverse reinforcement learning problem, and propose a parameter sharing adversarial inverse reinforcement learning model for dynamics-robust simulation learning. Our proposed model is able to imitate a vehicle's trajectories in the real world while simultaneously recovering the reward function that reveals the vehicle's true objective which is invariant to different dynamics. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show the superior performance of our approach compared to state-of-the-art methods and its robustness to variant dynamics of traffic.