Bowen Gu

Bowen Gu, Rishi J. Desai, Kueiyu Joshua Lin et al. · harvard

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in clinical applications through prompt engineering, allowing flexible clinical predictions. However, they struggle to produce reliable prediction probabilities, which are crucial for transparency and decision-making. While explicit prompts can lead LLMs to generate probability estimates, their numerical reasoning limitations raise concerns about reliability. We compared explicit probabilities from text generation to implicit probabilities derived from the likelihood of predicting the correct label token. Across six advanced open-source LLMs and five medical datasets, explicit probabilities consistently underperformed implicit probabilities in discrimination, precision, and recall. This discrepancy is more pronounced with smaller LLMs and imbalanced datasets, highlighting the need for cautious interpretation, improved probability estimation methods, and further research for clinical use of LLMs.

Chong Shao, Douglas Snyder, Chiran Li et al. · harvard

Identifying medication discontinuations in electronic health records (EHRs) is vital for patient safety but is often hindered by information being buried in unstructured notes. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of advanced open-sourced and proprietary large language models (LLMs) in extracting medications and classifying their medication status from EHR notes, focusing on their scalability on medication information extraction without human annotation. We collected three EHR datasets from diverse sources to build the evaluation benchmark. We evaluated 12 advanced LLMs and explored multiple LLM prompting strategies. Performance on medication extraction, medication status classification, and their joint task (extraction then classification) was systematically compared across all experiments. We found that LLMs showed promising performance on the medication extraction and discontinuation classification from EHR notes. GPT-4o consistently achieved the highest average F1 scores in all tasks under zero-shot setting - 94.0% for medication extraction, 78.1% for discontinuation classification, and 72.7% for the joint task. Open-sourced models followed closely, Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct achieved the highest performance in medication status classification on the MIV-Med dataset (68.7%) and in the joint task on both the Re-CASI (76.2%) and MIV-Med (60.2%) datasets. Medical-specific LLMs demonstrated lower performance compared to advanced general-domain LLMs. Few-shot learning generally improved performance, while CoT reasoning showed inconsistent gains. LLMs demonstrate strong potential for medication extraction and discontinuation identification on EHR notes, with open-sourced models offering scalable alternatives to proprietary systems and few-shot can further improve LLMs' capability.