Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu

Helena Löfström, Tuwe Löfström, Anders Hjort et al.

This paper surveys uncertainty-aware explainable artificial intelligence (UAXAI), examining how uncertainty is incorporated into explanatory pipelines and how such methods are evaluated. Across the literature, three recurring approaches to uncertainty quantification emerge (Bayesian, Monte Carlo, and Conformal methods), alongside distinct strategies for integrating uncertainty into explanations: assessing trustworthiness, constraining models or explanations, and explicitly communicating uncertainty. Evaluation practices remain fragmented and largely model centered, with limited attention to users and inconsistent reporting of reliability properties (e.g., calibration, coverage, explanation stability). Recent work leans towards calibration, distribution free techniques and recognizes explainer variability as a central concern. We argue that progress in UAXAI requires unified evaluation principles that link uncertainty propagation, robustness, and human decision-making, and highlight counterfactual and calibration approaches as promising avenues for aligning interpretability with reliability.

Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu, Meltem Aksoy, Alberto Rigenti et al.

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates irreducible noise with uncertainty induced by heterogeneous training data (aleatoric), model limitations, or calibration mismatch (epistemic), offering little insight into why an interval is wide or whether it could be reduced. We introduce an uncertainty-aware explainability framework that analyses the reducibility of calibration-induced epistemic conformal uncertainty via progressive calibration localisation for regression tasks. The approach is diagnostic rather than causal: it does not estimate true aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, but explains how conformal intervals contract and stabilise as calibration support is localised around a test instance. Across benchmarks and real-world data, absolute reducible uncertainty aligns with epistemic proxies, while its relative contribution varies by task, revealing regimes hidden by interval width. This instance-level view complements conformal uncertainty, enhancing interpretability without altering the predictor or coverage.

Tuwe Löfström, Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu, Alessandra Stramiglio et al.

This paper introduces Fast Calibrated Explanations, a method designed for generating rapid, uncertainty-aware explanations for machine learning models. By incorporating perturbation techniques from ConformaSight - a global explanation framework - into the core elements of Calibrated Explanations (CE), we achieve significant speedups. These core elements include local feature importance with calibrated predictions, both of which retain uncertainty quantification. While the new method sacrifices a small degree of detail, it excels in computational efficiency, making it ideal for high-stakes, real-time applications. Fast Calibrated Explanations are applicable to probabilistic explanations in classification and thresholded regression tasks, where they provide the likelihood of a target being above or below a user-defined threshold. This approach maintains the versatility of CE for both classification and probabilistic regression, making it suitable for a range of predictive tasks where uncertainty quantification is crucial.