Myrl G. Marmarelis

Negar Mokhberian, Myrl G. Marmarelis, Frederic R. Hopp et al.

Supervised classification heavily depends on datasets annotated by humans. However, in subjective tasks such as toxicity classification, these annotations often exhibit low agreement among raters. Annotations have commonly been aggregated by employing methods like majority voting to determine a single ground truth label. In subjective tasks, aggregating labels will result in biased labeling and, consequently, biased models that can overlook minority opinions. Previous studies have shed light on the pitfalls of label aggregation and have introduced a handful of practical approaches to tackle this issue. Recently proposed multi-annotator models, which predict labels individually per annotator, are vulnerable to under-determination for annotators with few samples. This problem is exacerbated in crowdsourced datasets. In this work, we propose \textbf{Annotator Aware Representations for Texts (AART)} for subjective classification tasks. Our approach involves learning representations of annotators, allowing for exploration of annotation behaviors. We show the improvement of our method on metrics that assess the performance on capturing individual annotators' perspectives. Additionally, we demonstrate fairness metrics to evaluate our model's equability of performance for marginalized annotators compared to others.

Myrl G. Marmarelis, Elizabeth Haddad, Andrew Jesson et al.

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding variables -- causal parents of both the treatment and the outcome -- are included as covariates. Unfortunately, given observational data alone, we cannot know with certainty that this criterion is satisfied. Sensitivity analyses provide principled ways to give bounds on causal estimates when confounding variables are hidden. While much attention is focused on sensitivity analyses for discrete-valued treatments, much less is paid to continuous-valued treatments. We present novel methodology to bound both average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment-effect estimates when they cannot be point identified due to hidden confounding. A semi-synthetic benchmark on multiple datasets shows our method giving tighter coverage of the true dose-response curve than a recently proposed continuous sensitivity model and baselines. Finally, we apply our method to a real-world observational case study to demonstrate the value of identifying dose-dependent causal effects.

Myrl G. Marmarelis, Greg Ver Steeg, Aram Galstyan et al.

Causal inference of exact individual treatment outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders is rarely possible. Recent work has extended prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees to partially identifiable causal outcomes, by means of a sensitivity model for hidden confounding. In deep learning, predictors can exploit their inductive biases for better generalization out of sample. We argue that the structure inherent to a deep ensemble should inform a tighter partial identification of the causal outcomes that they predict. We therefore introduce an approach termed Caus-Modens, for characterizing causal outcome intervals by modulated ensembles. We present a simple approach to partial identification using existing causal sensitivity models and show empirically that Caus-Modens gives tighter outcome intervals, as measured by the necessary interval size to achieve sufficient coverage. The last of our three diverse benchmarks is a novel usage of GPT-4 for observational experiments with unknown but probeable ground truth.

Siyi Guo, Myrl G. Marmarelis, Fred Morstatter et al.

Quantifying the effects of textual interventions in social systems, such as reducing anger in social media posts to see its impact on engagement, is challenging. Real-world interventions are often infeasible, necessitating reliance on observational data. Traditional causal inference methods, typically designed for binary or discrete treatments, are inadequate for handling the complex, high-dimensional textual data. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing CausalDANN, a novel approach to estimate causal effects using text transformations facilitated by large language models (LLMs). Unlike existing methods, our approach accommodates arbitrary textual interventions and leverages text-level classifiers with domain adaptation ability to produce robust effect estimates against domain shifts, even when only the control group is observed. This flexibility in handling various text interventions is a key advancement in causal estimation for textual data, offering opportunities to better understand human behaviors and develop effective interventions within social systems.

Myrl G. Marmarelis, Greg Ver Steeg, Aram Galstyan

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all interactions is often infeasible in empirical settings. Models that specialize on a spatiotemporal application alleviate this obstacle by exploiting spatial locality, allowing the dyadic relationships between events to depend only on separation in time and relative distances in real Euclidean space. Here we generalize this framework to any multivariate Hawkes process, and harness it as a vessel for embedding arbitrary event types in a hidden metric space. Specifically, we propose a Hidden Hawkes Geometry (HHG) model to uncover the hidden geometry between event excitations in a multivariate point process. The low dimensionality of the embedding regularizes the structure of the inferred interactions. We develop a number of estimators and validate the model by conducting several experiments. In particular, we investigate regional infectivity dynamics of COVID-19 in an early South Korean record and recent Los Angeles confirmed cases. By additionally performing synthetic experiments on short records as well as explorations into options markets and the Ebola epidemic, we demonstrate that learning the embedding alongside a point process uncovers salient interactions in a broad range of applications.