Yao Liu

Yao Liu, Pratik Chaudhari, Rasool Fakoor · stanford

The main challenge of offline reinforcement learning, where data is limited, arises from a sequence of counterfactual reasoning dilemmas within the realm of potential actions: What if we were to choose a different course of action? These circumstances frequently give rise to extrapolation errors, which tend to accumulate exponentially with the problem horizon. Hence, it becomes crucial to acknowledge that not all decision steps are equally important to the final outcome, and to budget the number of counterfactual decisions a policy make in order to control the extrapolation. Contrary to existing approaches that use regularization on either the policy or value function, we propose an approach to explicitly bound the amount of out-of-distribution actions during training. Specifically, our method utilizes dynamic programming to decide where to extrapolate and where not to, with an upper bound on the decisions different from behavior policy. It balances between the potential for improvement from taking out-of-distribution actions and the risk of making errors due to extrapolation. Theoretically, we justify our method by the constrained optimality of the fixed point solution to our $Q$ updating rules. Empirically, we show that the overall performance of our method is better than the state-of-the-art offline RL methods on tasks in the widely-used D4RL benchmarks.

Yao Liu, Quan Z. Sheng, Lina Yao

Pedestrian trajectory prediction plays a pivotal role in the realms of autonomous driving and smart cities. Despite extensive prior research employing sequence and generative models, the unpredictable nature of pedestrians, influenced by their social interactions and individual preferences, presents challenges marked by uncertainty and multimodality. In response, we propose the Energy Plan Denoising (EPD) model for stochastic trajectory prediction. EPD initially provides a coarse estimation of the distribution of future trajectories, termed the Plan, utilizing the Langevin Energy Model. Subsequently, it refines this estimation through denoising via the Probabilistic Diffusion Model. By initiating denoising with the Plan, EPD effectively reduces the need for iterative steps, thereby enhancing efficiency. Furthermore, EPD differs from conventional approaches by modeling the distribution of trajectories instead of individual trajectories. This allows for the explicit modeling of pedestrian intrinsic uncertainties and eliminates the need for multiple denoising operations. A single denoising operation produces a distribution from which multiple samples can be drawn, significantly enhancing efficiency. Moreover, EPD's fine-tuning of the Plan contributes to improved model performance. We validate EPD on two publicly available datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art results. Additionally, ablation experiments underscore the contributions of individual modules, affirming the efficacy of the proposed approach.