Alizée Pace

Alizée Pace, Hugo Yèche, Bernhard Schölkopf et al.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

Alizée Pace, Alex J. Chan, Mihaela van der Schaar

Building models of human decision-making from observed behaviour is critical to better understand, diagnose and support real-world policies such as clinical care. As established policy learning approaches remain focused on imitation performance, they fall short of explaining the demonstrated decision-making process. Policy Extraction through decision Trees (POETREE) is a novel framework for interpretable policy learning, compatible with fully-offline and partially-observable clinical decision environments -- and builds probabilistic tree policies determining physician actions based on patients' observations and medical history. Fully-differentiable tree architectures are grown incrementally during optimization to adapt their complexity to the modelling task, and learn a representation of patient history through recurrence, resulting in decision tree policies that adapt over time with patient information. This policy learning method outperforms the state-of-the-art on real and synthetic medical datasets, both in terms of understanding, quantifying and evaluating observed behaviour as well as in accurately replicating it -- with potential to improve future decision support systems.

Hugo Yèche, Alizée Pace, Gunnar Rätsch et al. · ibm-research

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Rita Kuznetsova, Alizée Pace, Manuel Burger et al. · ibm-research

Recent advances in deep learning architectures for sequence modeling have not fully transferred to tasks handling time-series from electronic health records. In particular, in problems related to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), the state-of-the-art remains to tackle sequence classification in a tabular manner with tree-based methods. Recent findings in deep learning for tabular data are now surpassing these classical methods by better handling the severe heterogeneity of data input features. Given the similar level of feature heterogeneity exhibited by ICU time-series and motivated by these findings, we explore these novel methods' impact on clinical sequence modeling tasks. By jointly using such advances in deep learning for tabular data, our primary objective is to underscore the importance of step-wise embeddings in time-series modeling, which remain unexplored in machine learning methods for clinical data. On a variety of clinically relevant tasks from two large-scale ICU datasets, MIMIC-III and HiRID, our work provides an exhaustive analysis of state-of-the-art methods for tabular time-series as time-step embedding models, showing overall performance improvement. In particular, we evidence the importance of feature grouping in clinical time-series, with significant performance gains when considering features within predefined semantic groups in the step-wise embedding module.

Alizée Pace, Jonathan Mallinson, Eric Malmi et al.

The success of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in language model alignment is strongly dependent on the quality of the underlying reward model. In this paper, we present a novel approach to improve reward model quality by generating synthetic preference data, thereby augmenting the training dataset with on-policy, high-quality preference pairs. Motivated by the promising results of Best-of-N sampling strategies in language model training, we extend their application to reward model training. This results in a self-training strategy to generate preference pairs by selecting the best and worst candidates in a pool of responses to a given query. Empirically, we find that this approach improves the performance of any reward model, with an effect comparable to the addition of a similar quantity of human preference data. This work opens up new avenues of research for improving RLHF for language model alignment, by offering synthetic preference generation as a solution to reward modeling challenges.

Sam Houliston, Alizée Pace, Alexander Immer et al.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) to human preferences in content, style, and presentation is challenging, in part because preferences are varied, context-dependent, and sometimes inherently ambiguous. While successful, Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) are prone to the issue of proxy reward overoptimization. Analysis of the DPO loss reveals a critical need for regularization for mislabeled or ambiguous preference pairs to avoid reward hacking. In this work, we develop a pessimistic framework for DPO by introducing preference uncertainty penalization schemes, inspired by offline reinforcement learning. The penalization serves as a correction to the loss which attenuates the loss gradient for uncertain samples. Evaluation of the methods is performed with GPT2 Medium on the Anthropic-HH dataset using a model ensemble to obtain uncertainty estimates, and shows improved overall performance compared to vanilla DPO, as well as better completions on prompts from high-uncertainty chosen/rejected responses.

Alizée Pace, Bernhard Schölkopf, Gunnar Rätsch et al.

Applying reinforcement learning (RL) to real-world problems is often made challenging by the inability to interact with the environment and the difficulty of designing reward functions. Offline RL addresses the first challenge by considering access to an offline dataset of environment interactions labeled by the reward function. In contrast, Preference-based RL does not assume access to the reward function and learns it from preferences, but typically requires an online interaction with the environment. We bridge the gap between these frameworks by exploring efficient methods for acquiring preference feedback in a fully offline setup. We propose Sim-OPRL, an offline preference-based reinforcement learning algorithm, which leverages a learned environment model to elicit preference feedback on simulated rollouts. Drawing on insights from both the offline RL and the preference-based RL literature, our algorithm employs a pessimistic approach for out-of-distribution data, and an optimistic approach for acquiring informative preferences about the optimal policy. We provide theoretical guarantees regarding the sample complexity of our approach, dependent on how well the offline data covers the optimal policy. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical performance of Sim-OPRL in various environments.