Ying Liu

Xiaohong Chen, Ying Liu, Shujie Ma et al.

Semiparametric efficient estimation of various multi-valued causal effects, including quantile treatment effects, is important in economic, biomedical, and other social sciences. Under the unconfoundedness condition, adjustment for confounders requires estimating the nuisance functions relating outcome or treatment to confounders nonparametrically. This paper considers a generalized optimization framework for efficient estimation of general treatment effects using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to approximate the unknown nuisance function of growing-dimensional confounders. We establish a new approximation error bound for the ANNs to the nuisance function belonging to a mixed smoothness class without a known sparsity structure. We show that the ANNs can alleviate the "curse of dimensionality" under this circumstance. We establish the root-$n$ consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed general treatment effects estimators, and apply a weighted bootstrap procedure for conducting inference. The proposed methods are illustrated via simulation studies and a real data application.

Ning Liu, Ying Liu, Brent Logan et al.

This paper presents the first deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework to estimate the optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes from observational medical data. This framework is more flexible and adaptive for high dimensional action and state spaces than existing reinforcement learning methods to model real-life complexity in heterogeneous disease progression and treatment choices, with the goal of providing doctor and patients the data-driven personalized decision recommendations. The proposed DRL framework comprises (i) a supervised learning step to predict the most possible expert actions, and (ii) a deep reinforcement learning step to estimate the long-term value function of Dynamic Treatment Regimes. Both steps depend on deep neural networks. As a key motivational example, we have implemented the proposed framework on a data set from the Center for International Bone Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) registry database, focusing on the sequence of prevention and treatments for acute and chronic graft versus host disease after transplantation. In the experimental results, we have demonstrated promising accuracy in predicting human experts' decisions, as well as the high expected reward function in the DRL-based dynamic treatment regimes.