Ge Gao

Ge Gao, Amelia Leon, Andrea Jetten et al.

Educational stakeholders are often particularly interested in sparse, delayed student outcomes, like end-of-year statewide exams. The rare occurrence of such assessments makes it harder to identify students likely to fail such assessments, as well as making it slow for researchers and educators to be able to assess the effectiveness of particular educational tools. Prior work has primarily focused on using logs from students full usage (e.g. year-long) of an educational product to predict outcomes, or considered predictive accuracy using a few minutes to predict outcomes after a short (e.g. 1 hour) session. In contrast, we investigate machine learning predictors using students' logs during their first few hours of usage can provide useful predictive insight into those students' end-of-school year external assessment. We do this on three diverse datasets: from students in Uganda using a literacy game product, and from students in the US using two mathematics intelligent tutoring systems. We consider various measures of the accuracy of the resulting predictors, including its ability to identify students at different parts along the assessment performance distribution. Our findings suggest that short-term log usage data, from 2-5 hours, can be used to provide valuable signal about students' long-term external performance.

Hyunji Nam, Allen Nie, Ge Gao et al.

Off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the outcome of a new policy using historical data collected from a different policy. However, existing OPE methods cannot handle cases when the new policy introduces novel actions. This issue commonly occurs in real-world domains, like healthcare, as new drugs and treatments are continuously developed. Novel actions necessitate on-policy data collection, which can be burdensome and expensive if the outcome of interest takes a substantial amount of time to observe--for example, in multi-year clinical trials. This raises a key question of how to predict the long-term outcome of a policy after only observing its short-term effects? Though in general this problem is intractable, under some surrogacy conditions, the short-term on-policy data can be combined with the long-term historical data to make accurate predictions about the new policy's long-term value. In two simulated healthcare examples--HIV and sepsis management--we show that our estimators can provide accurate predictions about the policy value only after observing 10\% of the full horizon data. We also provide finite sample analysis of our doubly robust estimators.