Zhenghao Xu

Zhenghao Xu, Xiang Ji, Minshuo Chen et al.

Policy gradient methods equipped with deep neural networks have achieved great success in solving high-dimensional reinforcement learning (RL) problems. However, current analyses cannot explain why they are resistant to the curse of dimensionality. In this work, we study the sample complexity of the neural policy mirror descent (NPMD) algorithm with deep convolutional neural networks (CNN). Motivated by the empirical observation that many high-dimensional environments have state spaces possessing low-dimensional structures, such as those taking images as states, we consider the state space to be a $d$-dimensional manifold embedded in the $D$-dimensional Euclidean space with intrinsic dimension $d\ll D$. We show that in each iteration of NPMD, both the value function and the policy can be well approximated by CNNs. The approximation errors are controlled by the size of the networks, and the smoothness of the previous networks can be inherited. As a result, by properly choosing the network size and hyperparameters, NPMD can find an $ε$-optimal policy with $\widetilde{O}(ε^{-\frac{d}α-2})$ samples in expectation, where $α\in(0,1]$ indicates the smoothness of environment. Compared to previous work, our result exhibits that NPMD can leverage the low-dimensional structure of state space to escape from the curse of dimensionality, explaining the efficacy of deep policy gradient algorithms.

Zichong Li, Qunzhi Xu, Zhenghao Xu et al.

Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) are potent mathematical tools for modeling and predicting events with both temporal and spatial features. Despite their versatility, most existing methods for learning STPPs either assume a restricted form of the spatio-temporal distribution, or suffer from inaccurate approximations of the intractable integral in the likelihood training objective. These issues typically arise from the normalization term of the probability density function. Moreover, current techniques fail to provide uncertainty quantification for model predictions, such as confidence intervals for the predicted event's arrival time and confidence regions for the event's location, which is crucial given the considerable randomness of the data. To tackle these challenges, we introduce SMASH: a Score MAtching-based pSeudolikeliHood estimator for learning marked STPPs with uncertainty quantification. Specifically, our framework adopts a normalization-free objective by estimating the pseudolikelihood of marked STPPs through score-matching and offers uncertainty quantification for the predicted event time, location and mark by computing confidence regions over the generated samples. The superior performance of our proposed framework is demonstrated through extensive experiments in both event prediction and uncertainty quantification.

Zhenghao Xu, Yuqing Wang, Tuo Zhao et al.

We study the convergence rate of first-order methods for rectangular matrix factorization, which is a canonical nonconvex optimization problem. Specifically, given a rank-$r$ matrix $\mathbf{A}\in\mathbb{R}^{m\times n}$, we prove that gradient descent (GD) can find a pair of $ε$-optimal solutions $\mathbf{X}_T\in\mathbb{R}^{m\times d}$ and $\mathbf{Y}_T\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, where $d\geq r$, satisfying $\lVert\mathbf{X}_T\mathbf{Y}_T^\top-\mathbf{A}\rVert_\mathrm{F}\leqε\lVert\mathbf{A}\rVert_\mathrm{F}$ in $T=O(κ^2\log\frac{1}ε)$ iterations with high probability, where $κ$ denotes the condition number of $\mathbf{A}$. Furthermore, we prove that Nesterov's accelerated gradient (NAG) attains an iteration complexity of $O(κ\log\frac{1}ε)$, which is the best-known bound of first-order methods for rectangular matrix factorization. Different from small balanced random initialization in the existing literature, we adopt an unbalanced initialization, where $\mathbf{X}_0$ is large and $\mathbf{Y}_0$ is $0$. Moreover, our initialization and analysis can be further extended to linear neural networks, where we prove that NAG can also attain an accelerated linear convergence rate. In particular, we only require the width of the network to be greater than or equal to the rank of the output label matrix. In contrast, previous results achieving the same rate require excessive widths that additionally depend on the condition number and the rank of the input data matrix.

Suhan Guo, Zhenghao Xu, Furao Shen et al.

Accurate prediction of contagious disease outbreaks is vital for informed decision-making. Our study addresses the gap between machine learning algorithms and their epidemiological applications, noting that methods optimal for benchmark datasets often underperform with real-world data due to difficulties in incorporating mobility information. We adopt a two-phase approach: first, assessing the significance of mobility data through a pilot study, then evaluating the impact of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) on a transformer backbone. Our findings reveal that while mobility data and GCN modules do not significantly enhance forecasting performance, the inclusion of mortality and hospitalization data markedly improves model accuracy. Additionally, a comparative analysis between GCN-derived spatial maps and lockdown orders suggests a notable correlation, highlighting the potential of spatial maps as sensitive indicators for mobility. Our research offers a novel perspective on mobility representation in predictive modeling for contagious diseases, empowering decision-makers to better prepare for future outbreaks.