Jian Tan

Xiao He, Ye Li, Jian Tan et al.

Seasonal-trend decomposition is one of the most fundamental concepts in time series analysis that supports various downstream tasks, including time series anomaly detection and forecasting. However, existing decomposition methods rely on batch processing with a time complexity of O(W), where W is the number of data points within a time window. Therefore, they cannot always efficiently support real-time analysis that demands low processing delay. To address this challenge, we propose OneShotSTL, an efficient and accurate algorithm that can decompose time series online with an update time complexity of O(1). OneShotSTL is more than $1,000$ times faster than the batch methods, with accuracy comparable to the best counterparts. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmark datasets for downstream time series anomaly detection and forecasting tasks demonstrate that OneShotSTL is from 10 to over 1,000 times faster than the state-of-the-art methods, while still providing comparable or even better accuracy.

Xingyu Zhou, Jian Tan

Motivated by the increasing concern about privacy in nowadays data-intensive online learning systems, we consider a black-box optimization in the nonparametric Gaussian process setting with local differential privacy (LDP) guarantee. Specifically, the rewards from each user are further corrupted to protect privacy and the learner only has access to the corrupted rewards to minimize the regret. We first derive the regret lower bounds for any LDP mechanism and any learning algorithm. Then, we present three almost optimal algorithms based on the GP-UCB framework and Laplace DP mechanism. In this process, we also propose a new Bayesian optimization (BO) method (called MoMA-GP-UCB) based on median-of-means techniques and kernel approximations, which complements previous BO algorithms for heavy-tailed payoffs with a reduced complexity. Further, empirical comparisons of different algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets highlight the superior performance of MoMA-GP-UCB in both private and non-private scenarios.

Qingsong Wen, Jingkun Gao, Xiaomin Song et al.

Extracting the underlying trend signal is a crucial step to facilitate time series analysis like forecasting and anomaly detection. Besides noise signal, time series can contain not only outliers but also abrupt trend changes in real-world scenarios. To deal with these challenges, we propose a robust trend filtering algorithm based on robust statistics and sparse learning. Specifically, we adopt the Huber loss to suppress outliers, and utilize a combination of the first order and second order difference on the trend component as regularization to capture both slow and abrupt trend changes. Furthermore, an efficient method is designed to solve the proposed robust trend filtering based on majorization minimization (MM) and alternative direction method of multipliers (ADMM). We compared our proposed robust trend filter with other nine state-of-the-art trend filtering algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The experiments demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms existing methods.

Kaiyi Ji, Jian Tan, Jinfeng Xu et al.

Low-rank matrix completion has achieved great success in many real-world data applications. A matrix factorization model that learns latent features is usually employed and, to improve prediction performance, the similarities between latent variables can be exploited by pairwise learning using the graph regularized matrix factorization (GRMF) method. However, existing GRMF approaches often use the squared loss to measure the pairwise differences, which may be overly influenced by dissimilar pairs and lead to inferior prediction. To fully empower pairwise learning for matrix completion, we propose a general optimization framework that allows a rich class of (non-)convex pairwise penalty functions. A new and efficient algorithm is developed to solve the proposed optimization problem, with a theoretical convergence guarantee under mild assumptions. In an important situation where the latent variables form a small number of subgroups, its statistical guarantee is also fully considered. In particular, we theoretically characterize the performance of the complexity-regularized maximum likelihood estimator, as a special case of our framework, which is shown to have smaller errors when compared to the standard matrix completion framework without pairwise penalties. We conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets to demonstrate the superior performance of this general framework.