Garrett M. Morris

Markus Dablander, Thierry Hanser, Renaud Lambiotte et al.

Pairs of similar compounds that only differ by a small structural modification but exhibit a large difference in their binding affinity for a given target are known as activity cliffs (ACs). It has been hypothesised that quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models struggle to predict ACs and that ACs thus form a major source of prediction error. However, a study to explore the AC-prediction power of modern QSAR methods and its relationship to general QSAR-prediction performance is lacking. We systematically construct nine distinct QSAR models by combining three molecular representation methods (extended-connectivity fingerprints, physicochemical-descriptor vectors and graph isomorphism networks) with three regression techniques (random forests, k-nearest neighbours and multilayer perceptrons); we then use each resulting model to classify pairs of similar compounds as ACs or non-ACs and to predict the activities of individual molecules in three case studies: dopamine receptor D2, factor Xa, and SARS-CoV-2 main protease. We observe low AC-sensitivity amongst the tested models when the activities of both compounds are unknown, but a substantial increase in AC-sensitivity when the actual activity of one of the compounds is given. Graph isomorphism features are found to be competitive with or superior to classical molecular representations for AC-classification and can thus be employed as baseline AC-prediction models or simple compound-optimisation tools. For general QSAR-prediction, however, extended-connectivity fingerprints still consistently deliver the best performance. Our results provide strong support for the hypothesis that indeed QSAR methods frequently fail to predict ACs. We propose twin-network training for deep learning models as a potential future pathway to increase AC-sensitivity and thus overall QSAR performance.

Leo Klarner, Tim G. J. Rudner, Michael Reutlinger et al.

Accelerating the discovery of novel and more effective therapeutics is an important pharmaceutical problem in which deep learning is playing an increasingly significant role. However, real-world drug discovery tasks are often characterized by a scarcity of labeled data and significant covariate shift$\unicode{x2013}\unicode{x2013}$a setting that poses a challenge to standard deep learning methods. In this paper, we present Q-SAVI, a probabilistic model able to address these challenges by encoding explicit prior knowledge of the data-generating process into a prior distribution over functions, presenting researchers with a transparent and probabilistically principled way to encode data-driven modeling preferences. Building on a novel, gold-standard bioactivity dataset that facilitates a meaningful comparison of models in an extrapolative regime, we explore different approaches to induce data shift and construct a challenging evaluation setup. We then demonstrate that using Q-SAVI to integrate contextualized prior knowledge of drug-like chemical space into the modeling process affords substantial gains in predictive accuracy and calibration, outperforming a broad range of state-of-the-art self-supervised pre-training and domain adaptation techniques.

Leo Klarner, Tim G. J. Rudner, Garrett M. Morris et al.

Generative models have the potential to accelerate key steps in the discovery of novel molecular therapeutics and materials. Diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful approach, excelling at unconditional sample generation and, with data-driven guidance, conditional generation within their training domain. Reliably sampling from high-value regions beyond the training data, however, remains an open challenge -- with current methods predominantly focusing on modifying the diffusion process itself. In this paper, we develop context-guided diffusion (CGD), a simple plug-and-play method that leverages unlabeled data and smoothness constraints to improve the out-of-distribution generalization of guided diffusion models. We demonstrate that this approach leads to substantial performance gains across various settings, including continuous, discrete, and graph-structured diffusion processes with applications across drug discovery, materials science, and protein design.

Sam Money-Kyrle, Markus Dablander, Thierry Hanser et al.

Molecular Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are increasingly common in drug discovery, particularly for Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) studies; yet, their superiority compared to classical molecular featurisation approaches is disputed. We report a general strategy for improving GNNs for QSAR by pre-training to predict Extended-Connectivity Fingerprints (ECFP). We validate our approach with statistical tests and challenging out-of-distribution (OOD) splits. Across five out of six Biogen benchmarks, we observed a statistically significant improvement in standard performance metrics over all evaluated baselines when using ECFP pre-trained GNNs. However, for more heterogeneous datasets and more complex endpoints, such as binding affinity prediction, pre-trained GNNs underperformed in OOD settings. Importantly, we investigated the impact of substructure-level data leakage during pre-training on downstream performance. While we identified scenarios where pre-training on ECFPs was less effective, our findings show that ECFP-based pre-training can enhance downstream OOD performance on a diverse set of practically relevant QSAR tasks.

Markus Dablander, Thierry Hanser, Renaud Lambiotte et al.

Extended-connectivity fingerprints (ECFPs) are a ubiquitous tool in current cheminformatics and molecular machine learning, and one of the most prevalent molecular feature extraction techniques used for chemical prediction. Atom features learned by graph neural networks can be aggregated to compound-level representations using a large spectrum of graph pooling methods; in contrast, sets of detected ECFP substructures are by default transformed into bit vectors using only a simple hash-based folding procedure. We introduce a general mathematical framework for the vectorisation of structural fingerprints via a formal operation called substructure pooling that encompasses hash-based folding, algorithmic substructure-selection, and a wide variety of other potential techniques. We go on to describe Sort & Slice, an easy-to-implement and bit-collision-free alternative to hash-based folding for the pooling of ECFP substructures. Sort & Slice first sorts ECFP substructures according to their relative prevalence in a given set of training compounds and then slices away all but the $L$ most frequent substructures which are subsequently used to generate a binary fingerprint of desired length, $L$. We computationally compare the performance of hash-based folding, Sort & Slice, and two advanced supervised substructure-selection schemes (filtering and mutual-information maximisation) for ECFP-based molecular property prediction. Our results indicate that, despite its technical simplicity, Sort & Slice robustly (and at times substantially) outperforms traditional hash-based folding as well as the other investigated methods across prediction tasks, data splitting techniques, machine-learning models and ECFP hyperparameters. We thus recommend that Sort & Slice canonically replace hash-based folding as the default substructure-pooling technique to vectorise ECFPs for supervised molecular machine learning.