Joseph Turnbull

Jamie Simon, Daniel Kunin, Alexander Atanasov et al.

In this paper, we make the case that a scientific theory of deep learning is emerging. By this we mean a theory which characterizes important properties and statistics of the training process, hidden representations, final weights, and performance of neural networks. We pull together major strands of ongoing research in deep learning theory and identify five growing bodies of work that point toward such a theory: (a) solvable idealized settings that provide intuition for learning dynamics in realistic systems; (b) tractable limits that reveal insights into fundamental learning phenomena; (c) simple mathematical laws that capture important macroscopic observables; (d) theories of hyperparameters that disentangle them from the rest of the training process, leaving simpler systems behind; and (e) universal behaviors shared across systems and settings which clarify which phenomena call for explanation. Taken together, these bodies of work share certain broad traits: they are concerned with the dynamics of the training process; they primarily seek to describe coarse aggregate statistics; and they emphasize falsifiable quantitative predictions. We argue that the emerging theory is best thought of as a mechanics of the learning process, and suggest the name learning mechanics. We discuss the relationship between this mechanics perspective and other approaches for building a theory of deep learning, including the statistical and information-theoretic perspectives. In particular, we anticipate a symbiotic relationship between learning mechanics and mechanistic interpretability. We also review and address common arguments that fundamental theory will not be possible or is not important. We conclude with a portrait of important open directions in learning mechanics and advice for beginners. We host further introductory materials, perspectives, and open questions at learningmechanics.pub.

Dhruva Karkada, Joseph Turnbull, Yuxi Liu et al.

We study kernel regression with common rotation-invariant kernels on real datasets including CIFAR-5m, SVHN, and ImageNet. We give a theoretical framework that predicts learning curves (test risk vs. sample size) from only two measurements: the empirical data covariance matrix and an empirical polynomial decomposition of the target function $f_*$. The key new idea is an analytical approximation of a kernel's eigenvalues and eigenfunctions with respect to an anisotropic data distribution. The eigenfunctions resemble Hermite polynomials of the data, so we call this approximation the Hermite eigenstructure ansatz (HEA). We prove the HEA for Gaussian data, but we find that real image data is often "Gaussian enough" for the HEA to hold well in practice, enabling us to predict learning curves by applying prior results relating kernel eigenstructure to test risk. Extending beyond kernel regression, we empirically find that MLPs in the feature-learning regime learn Hermite polynomials in the order predicted by the HEA. Our HEA framework is a proof of concept that an end-to-end theory of learning which maps dataset structure all the way to model performance is possible for nontrivial learning algorithms on real datasets.