Yanhui Zhu

Michael Roberts, J. Ignacio Deza, Hisham Ihshaish et al.

We present the first empirical study on customer churn prediction in the scholarly publishing industry. The study examines our proposed method for prediction on a customer subscription data over a period of 6.5 years, which was provided by a major academic publisher. We explore the subscription-type market within the context of customer defection and modelling, and provide analysis of the business model of such markets, and how these characterise the academic publishing business. The proposed method for prediction attempts to provide inference of customer's likelihood of defection on the basis of their re-sampled use of provider resources -in this context, the volume and frequency of content downloads. We show that this approach can be both accurate as well as uniquely useful in the business-to-business context, with which the scholarly publishing business model shares similarities. The main findings of this work suggest that whilst all predictive models examined, especially ensemble methods of machine learning, achieve substantially accurate prediction of churn, nearly a year ahead, this can be furthermore achieved even when the specific behavioural attributes that can be associated to each customer probability to churn are overlooked. Allowing as such highly accurate inference of churn from minimal possible data. We show that modelling churn on the basis of re-sampling customers' use of resources over subscription time is a better (simplified) approach than when considering the high granularity that can often characterise consumption behaviour.

Kaining Mao, Wei Zhang, Deborah Baofeng Wang et al.

Depression is increasingly impacting individuals both physically and psychologically worldwide. It has become a global major public health problem and attracts attention from various research fields. Traditionally, the diagnosis of depression is formulated through semi-structured interviews and supplementary questionnaires, which makes the diagnosis heavily relying on physicians experience and is subject to bias. Mental health monitoring and cloud-based remote diagnosis can be implemented through an automated depression diagnosis system. In this article, we propose an attention-based multimodality speech and text representation for depression prediction. Our model is trained to estimate the depression severity of participants using the Distress Analysis Interview Corpus-Wizard of Oz (DAIC-WOZ) dataset. For the audio modality, we use the collaborative voice analysis repository (COVAREP) features provided by the dataset and employ a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network (Bi-LSTM) followed by a Time-distributed Convolutional Neural Network (T-CNN). For the text modality, we use global vectors for word representation (GloVe) to perform word embeddings and the embeddings are fed into the Bi-LSTM network. Results show that both audio and text models perform well on the depression severity estimation task, with best sequence level F1 score of 0.9870 and patient-level F1 score of 0.9074 for the audio model over five classes (healthy, mild, moderate, moderately severe, and severe), as well as sequence level F1 score of 0.9709 and patient-level F1 score of 0.9245 for the text model over five classes. Results are similar for the multimodality fused model, with the highest F1 score of 0.9580 on the patient-level depression detection task over five classes. Experiments show statistically significant improvements over previous works.